Warning!!! Meaningless Stats...or are they?

[firstdayfan]

What's up guys, I am really bored and waiting on the USC/Ohio St game and I starting thinking about what it will take for the Panthers to win tomorrow. I figured the best way to figure that out was to look at some interesting statistics from last year and see how they translate. Here are the categories that I researched from all the games last season (including the playoffs), turnover margin, time of possession, rushing yardage, average yards per play, 3rd down percentage, and points scored (apparently when we score 20 or more we win). Here's what I found out...

1) 3rd down percentage means relatively nothing. In games where we converted at least 33% or better we were 8-2, however when we were less than 33% we were still 4-3. So no more whinning about coverting third downs...j/k.

2) Turnovers mean a lot but not as much as you would think, in games where we had a positive TO ratio we were 8-1, negative ratio was 2-3. One thing I noticed was that we can win games even when jake throws a few picks, but we lose games when he throws 5 ints and fumbles...remarkable.

3) The 20 pts or more legend was actually pretty interesting, in games when we scored at least 20 points we were 11-2! And we were 1-3 in games when we scored less than 20. I guess it goes to show you that you have to score more points than the other guy to win.

4) I really thought I was on to something with TOP but then the later part of the season killed it. In games when we held the ball for 27 minutes or more we were 9-1, games we didn't we were 3-4, not really much to write home about.

5) All kidding aside I did find a statistic that did stick out, two actually but thats the next one. This one is rushing yards, total rushing yards to be exact and that really told an interesting story. We were 12-2 when rushing for more than 100 yards as a team...and if the wind had not been blowing at Giants Stadium it would have been 13-1. When running for less than 100 yards per game, yup you guessed it 0-3. I guess that tells you all you need to know about how important deangelo, jonathon, and mike are this sunday.

6) The last stat was really telling and will make me monitor the stat sheet more closely this weekend. It wasn't necessarily an indicator of whether we win but how many points we scored. In games when we scored less than 20 points we averaged only 4.43 yards per play. In games when we scored between 21 and 27 we averaged 6.08 yards per play, and when we scored more than 27 (9 times by the way) we averaged 6.78 yards per play. So when we get to half time and are averaging less than 5 per play start praying for a miracle because that won't do it.

This was all in good fun guys and I hope no one takes it too seriously, if you wanna do some more defensive statistics feel free. I'm curious to see our record in games when we allow a 100 yards rushing or more. Go Nuts!!!

[Cyberjag]

If Williams gets 100 yards, we're 6-2. If he gets 110 or more, we're 5-0.

[firstdayfan]

If Williams gets 100 yards, we're 6-2. If he gets 110 or more, we're 5-0.

Thats a good one! If you think about it that extra 10 yards represents another 1st down and probably another minute or two of TOP. So as trival as it sounds it can be a big difference in a close game.

[Fireball77]

Just out of curiosity, what was the one game they lost when they were over 100? My guess is the second Falcons game.

[firstdayfan]

Just out of curiosity, what was the one game they lost when they were over 100? My guess is the second Falcons game.

You are correct sir! That game was an enigma we won the turnover battle, held the ball for 31 minutes, rushed for 134 yards, and scored 28 points. I don't know why we lost that game except for the defense didn't stop the Falcons at all that day.

[Jangler]

Matt Ryan is God, that's why. You didn't know that?

[Kettle]

i actually read the whole post. good stuff.

[firstdayfan]

Matt Ryan is God, that's why. You didn't know that?

No wonder my church has so much red and black! Thanks for clearing that up.

[Peppers90 NC]

You are correct sir! That game was an enigma we won the turnover battle, held the ball for 31 minutes, rushed for 134 yards, and scored 28 points. I don't know why we lost that game except for the defense didn't stop the Falcons at all that day.

The first half

[firstdayfan]

The first half

You're right but the defense and special teams broke down in the fourth quarter of that game. A punt return TD and 3 other TD's was pretty awful, it was a semi close game up until that.

[Jangler]

No wonder my church has so much red and black! Thanks for clearing that up.

He can also do this, didn't know that about him either, huh?

[Fireball77]

Thanks FDF, you bring a lot to the table. Keep posting often!

[firstdayfan]

He can also do this, didn't know that about him either, huh?

Thats impressive.

[nosuchthingasapanther]

The first half

yup.

carolina ran for less than 30 yards the entire first half and was down by 2 tds.