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Week 11 WIN against Washington - Stats & Analysis

KB_fan

By KB_fan,
in Carolina Panthers

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KB_fan Proficient

KB_fan

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6 minutes ago, chris999 said:

My opinion is that PFF is nonsense. Cam newton had a career day, while Luke had a sub-par day for his usual contribution on Sundays. (Sub-par for Luke is still a good performance)

I always notice stuff on that site that just doesnt make sense. The only way to gauge an individual performance is to watch it, and let your observations guide your analysis and sort out the variables.

 

I tend to agree with you.  I don't place a lot of weight in PFF grades.  Just include them here since I know they're of interest to some, and occasionally they provide helpful insights.

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Servant of Cthululelei Newbie

Servant of Cthululelei

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50 minutes ago, chris999 said:

My opinion is that PFF is nonsense. Cam newton had a career day, while Luke had a sub-par day for his usual contribution on Sundays. (Sub-par for Luke is still a good performance)

I always notice stuff on that site that just doesnt make sense. The only way to gauge an individual performance is to watch it, and let your observations guide your analysis and sort out the variables.

 

I mean, I agree, but the way you made your point is a bit counter-intuitive, as the PFF grading system is exactly that.  They watch film and study each individual player and grade them on every play.  I think the problem lies therein, though.  They grade EVERY PLAY.  Guys can get negative or positive grades for plays they weren't really even involved in.  Norman doesn't get off his WR block on a run that doesn't go to his side of the field?  Negative run defense grade.  Newton throws a swing pass that is slightly off target so the receiver has to adjust to it, but still picks up about 5 yards?  Negative pass grade for Newton, positive grade for receiver.

The system has value, but it sometimes does a bad job of capturing how a player played in terms of what actually matters.  Like that game Rodgers had several weeks back where his stats were incredible in a dominant victory, yet his grade was negative.  It's because when they reviewed the tape, most of the big plays Rodgers got were "routine", and "easy" completions, so he got either barely positive, or neutral grades on them, while he earned negative grades on a bunch of plays that didn't really matter.

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joemac Grand Master

joemac

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1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

Speaking of PFF... a few of their signature stats are showing up on Twitter this a.m.

Cam Newton was 11 for 12 for 100 yards and 5 TDs vs the blitz yesterday, per @pff

Hmmmmm....someone is wrong then.  Just a few posts up it says:

However, when Washington was able to get to Newton, the Panthers’ passing game struggled. He only completed 33 percent of his passes for 6 yards when pressured. Newton was highly effective between 10–19 yards, especially in the middle of the field, where he only had one incompletion on six attempts.

Which is it?

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w280sax Proficient

w280sax

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14 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Devin Funchess played 61 snaps yesterday. Saw a combined 50 in previous three games.

 

With most of the starters sitting out some of the 4th yesterday, only two remain at 100 percent snaps for the year: Oher & Remmers.

I wanted us to get oher out of there in the 4th yesterday.  Did we have anyone else available?

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KB_fan Proficient

KB_fan

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3 minutes ago, w280sax said:

I wanted us to get oher out of there in the 4th yesterday.  Did we have anyone else available?

With Norwell out and Silatolu going out with an injury as well, with Chris Scott filling in, the only other tackle would have been Daryl Williams, I believe.  I haven't yet seen if he got playing time in the 4th.  If Remmers stayed in, maybe not.,

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KB_fan Proficient

KB_fan

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BBR has posted the snap count:

http://blackandbluereview.com/week-11-snap-counts-redskins-at-panthers/

–With most starters getting a chunk of the fourth quarter off, Michael Oher and Mike Remmers are left as the only Panthers who have played 100 percent of snaps this season.

–If not for the blowout, Jonathan Stewart would have played at least 50 snaps for the seventh time in 10 games.

–After tweaking his ankle midway through the fourth quarter, Mike Tolbert came back in and finished with his most snaps since 2013.

–Against the Colts, Packers and Titans, Devin Funchess was in for a combined 50 plays. In his first NFL start Sunday, the rookie led Panthers’ receivers with 61 snaps.

–The defense has totaled just 94 snaps the past two weeks. To put that in perspective, they played 88 against the Texans and 83 against the Eagles.

—Ryan Delaire, who had only one tackle in 128 snaps since his five-tackle, two-sack debut at Tampa Bay, had two tackles and half a sack against the Redskins, his other former team.

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KB_fan

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A great analysis of how we shut down Washington's run game:

http://nflbreakdowns.com/kuechly-panthers-redskins-rushing/

With a 44-16 victory over the Redskins, the Kuechly-led Panthers’ defense limited the Redskins to 14 yards on 12 rushing attempts. In this breakdown, we will take a look at how the Carolina Panthers’ front seven achieved such a feat as they went on to win the game and go 10-0 for the season.

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KB_fan Proficient

KB_fan

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I've done all the gamebook data entry and am now working on updating my drive chart tables for the past 3 games...  I'll be posting a bunch of tables soon.

But here's one set of comparison data I found interesting to look at - comparing the results of all the Panthers' drives with all our Opponents' drives so far this season:

panthers_drives(wk11).png.f81b1c3a81b555

Notice, the Panthers are scoring on an average of 44% of all our drives (27% TD / 18% FG), and our scoring is consistent by half.  Only 9% of our drives have ended in turnovers.

Now look at our opponents:

Opp_drives.png.368aa691956a2819c44d3ee59

20% of opponents drives ending in turnovers - higher than their TD scoring % of 16%!  Notice also how opponents' scoring drops quite sharply from the 1st to 2nd half.

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IMissChrisWeinke Newbie

IMissChrisWeinke

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On November 23, 2015 at 12:49:23 PM, joemac said:

Hmmmmm....someone is wrong then.  Just a few posts up it says:

However, when Washington was able to get to Newton, the Panthers’ passing game struggled. He only completed 33 percent of his passes for 6 yards when pressured. Newton was highly effective between 10–19 yards, especially in the middle of the field, where he only had one incompletion on six attempts.

Which is it?

Blitzes don't mean pressure all the time. This attests to the ability of the offense reading and covering the defense. That is my guess. 

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IMissChrisWeinke Newbie

IMissChrisWeinke

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On November 23, 2015 at 10:42:21 AM, KB_fan said:

The PFF Summary and top 5 grades for the CAR - WAS game are in

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/11/23/pro-was-car-grades-newton-kuechly-slice-through-washington/

Carolina Panthers

Top performers

LB Luke Kuechly (+3.3)
QB Cam Newton (+2.5)
CB Bené Benwikere (+2.4)
S Roman Harper (+1.9)
OL Amini Silatolu (+1.7)

Criticisms of PFF aside, it's great to have some stats back my appreciation for unsung players. Roman Harper has done very well to help the defense in the back, and I feel like the old man isn't getting his shoutout. Silatolu was oft criticized, but he really stepped up. Shame about his knee. Though, mistaking it as a contusion? Might not understand pain like a normal human being.  Bené still worries me. I just feel he still going through the learning curve and it shows. 

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