Incredible Article From Football Outsiders on the Greatest QB in Football

[Fright]

Great read... just don't tread too deep into those comments.. sheesh

[5158Poundin]

Camvp.  'Nuff said.

[d-dave]

So numbers aside, why does everyone agree that Cam Newton is having a MVP winning season while others are just having great seasons?  The fact is, there isn't a great counter argument for each other player that supersedes Cam's season?  Palmer is having a great year, but he's also had other players and his defense take care of games.  He's also lost two more games that Cam.  Brady?  He's had to put up with a lot, but we as football fans have become spoiled by Brady's consistent excellence.  Brady should always be 13-3! 

I enjoyed the read!  Someone said Panther-Pr0n, and I agree completely!  Cam has really progressed as a passer, he has carried a large proportion of the running game, and he continues to trust his guys.  Take good ole Ted Ginn Jr.  In the article, they highlighted his dropped OT game winner.  Cam went right back to Ginn.  That's what Cam's done all season, and the MVP voters recognize this.  That's where the others fall off.  How often were they able to come back to someone who dropped a game winning play, only to come back and win?

And that's why Cam's the MVP.

[ecu88]

The best quote from the comments:

Quote

I feel like people advocating Carson Palmer are leaving out a key dynamic - Cam's rushing ability and ever-present threat. I (and it seems FO, as well) believe Cam's unique style is poorly served by the current analytics used here. They are wonderful and informative, but Cam falls into a crack with a numbers system based on the more conventional player.
Let's concede that in pure passing numbers that Palmer was top dog. Would it not to be fair to say that Cam was at worst 5th or 6th all things considered? Now, one does not win MVP by being the 5th or 6th best passer as a QB UNLESS....
that very same person is a top notch Running back as well! Newton was top 10 in YPA. Top 5 in rushing TDs and 1st downs. Those numbers aren't for QBs. He was that against everyone in the NFL, including running backs. To gauge that some, Russell Wilson was next best QB at 33rd.

Carson Palmer accounted for 4,695 total yards and 36 TDs. That accounted for 71.88% of the yards and 70.59% of the offensive TDs.
Cam Newton had 4,473 yds and 45 TDs. Or 76.19% of yardage and 83.33% of the offensive TDs.
That seems clear that he was more VALUABLE. Carson had a very good season but Cam was transcendent in what he meant to his team. He has finally earned legit top 10 passing QB discussion but pairing that with the fact that he is the single greatest rushing QB in the history of the game it is foolish for anyone to be anything closer than a distant second. His combination of size, power, speed, field vision to go with legitimate passing ability has finally matured. Only Steve Young came close to showing that type of combination of skill sets and Cam just tied Young's 15 year career rushing TD records in week 17 of his 5th season!!

Lastly, I would like to address the complaint that Cam has had such a weak schedule. First off when a team goes 15-1 the numbers are going to reflect poorly on your opponents win loss record.
Carolina SOS was .441. The opponents were 113-143. If one removes Carolina playing them it is a 112-128 record and still a mediocre .467.
Arizona mind you was only .477. Opponents going 122-134. Removing their games equals 119-121. That is a whooping difference of 7 games out of the 240 (256 if you want to factor back in the games each team played). Not really the monumental advantage that many anti-Carolina/anti-Cam commenters have been portraying. The defensive rank of Carolina opponents were 19.625. Arizona's were 18.5.

Quick related note: Since Palmer was completely a passer without the rushing dynamic, let's look at the passing defenses he faced - NOR 31st, Pitt 30th, Philly 28th, SF 27th (twice), STL 23rd (twice), Cleveland 22nd and Cincy 20th. So there were 9 chances for Palmer to pad some of those pretty passing stats against weaker opponents to say the least.

Anyone trying to use the quality of competition, defensively or otherwise, against Newton is equally tearing down the argument in favor of Palmer.

Great article!

[Wyank]

That quote job kills my eyes.

[FootballMaestro]

13 minutes ago, d-dave said:

So numbers aside, why does everyone agree that Cam Newton is having a MVP winning season while others are just having great seasons?  The fact is, there isn't a great counter argument for each other player that supersedes Cam's season?  Palmer is having a great year, but he's also had other players and his defense take care of games.  He's also lost two more games that Cam.  Brady?  He's had to put up with a lot, but we as football fans have become spoiled by Brady's consistent excellence.  Brady should always be 13-3! 

I enjoyed the read!  Someone said Panther-Pr0n, and I agree completely!  Cam has really progressed as a passer, he has carried a large proportion of the running game, and he continues to trust his guys.  Take good ole Ted Ginn Jr.  In the article, they highlighted his dropped OT game winner.  Cam went right back to Ginn.  That's what Cam's done all season, and the MVP voters recognize this.  That's where the others fall off.  How often were they able to come back to someone who dropped a game winning play, only to come back and win?

And that's why Cam's the MVP.

I guarantee you, very few QB's have receivers who drop wide open sure fire TD's as consistently as the Panthers receivers did this year ("here's looking at you Ted Ginn").

And you're right. Earlier in the season, Cam was playing great, but didn't have the stats for it (due to bad weather, dropped TD's, etc.).  And it appears people want live in that past, even now.

Now he has the stats to go along with his eyeball great play. And no other QB (stat or eyeball wise) is significantly better, if at all than Cam Newton.

Agreed!

[Wyank]

Quote

I feel like people advocating Carson Palmer are leaving out a key dynamic - Cam's rushing ability and ever-present threat. I (and it seems FO, as well) believe Cam's unique style is poorly served by the current analytics used here. They are wonderful and informative, but Cam falls into a crack with a numbers system based on the more conventional player.
Let's concede that in pure passing numbers that Palmer was top dog. Would it not to be fair to say that Cam was at worst 5th or 6th all things considered? Now, one does not win MVP by being the 5th or 6th best passer as a QB UNLESS....
that very same person is a top notch Running back as well! Newton was top 10 in YPA. Top 5 in rushing TDs and 1st downs. Those numbers aren't for QBs. He was that against everyone in the NFL, including running backs. To gauge that some, Russell Wilson was next best QB at 33rd.
Carson Palmer accounted for 4,695 total yards and 36 TDs. That accounted for 71.88% of the yards and 70.59% of the offensive TDs.
Cam Newton had 4,473 yds and 45 TDs. Or 76.19% of yardage and 83.33% of the offensive TDs.
That seems clear that he was more VALUABLE. Carson had a very good season but Cam was transcendent in what he meant to his team. He has finally earned legit top 10 passing QB discussion but pairing that with the fact that he is the single greatest rushing QB in the history of the game it is foolish for anyone to be anything closer than a distant second. His combination of size, power, speed, field vision to go with legitimate passing ability has finally matured. Only Steve Young came close to showing that type of combination of skill sets and Cam just tied Young's 15 year career rushing TD records in week 17 of his 5th season!!
Lastly, I would like to address the complaint that Cam has had such a weak schedule. First off when a team goes 15-1 the numbers are going to reflect poorly on your opponents win loss record.
Carolina SOS was .441. The opponents were 113-143. If one removes Carolina playing them it is a 112-128 record and still a mediocre .467.
Arizona mind you was only .477. Opponents going 122-134. Removing their games equals 119-121. That is a whooping difference of 7 games out of the 240 (256 if you want to factor back in the games each team played). Not really the monumental advantage that many anti-Carolina/anti-Cam commenters have been portraying. The defensive rank of Carolina opponents were 19.625. Arizona's were 18.5.
Quick related note: Since Palmer was completely a passer without the rushing dynamic, let's look at the passing defenses he faced - NOR 31st, Pitt 30th, Philly 28th, SF 27th (twice), STL 23rd (twice), Cleveland 22nd and Cincy 20th. So there were 9 chances for Palmer to pad some of those pretty passing stats against weaker opponents to say the least.
Anyone trying to use the quality of competition, defensively or otherwise, against Newton is equally tearing down the argument in favor of Palmer.

Easier to read version.

[FootballMaestro]

7 minutes ago, Wyank said:

Easier to read version.

The irony is: The Author was arguing Cam is the best passer (period), by both the eye test, and his supporting cast who don't  always help him.

His stats aren't too bad either.

Funny, when Cam threw for 4000+ yards as a rookie, his critics ignored it. Now when he has as many or more TD's than Palmer (and the highest scoring offense), all of a sudden having more passing yards translates into "better stats". Go figure!

SMH

[ecu88]

17 minutes ago, Wyank said:

That quote job kills my eyes.

My bad :) my cell is horrible at quotes

[ecu88]

11 minutes ago, Wyank said:

Easier to read version.

Thanks!

The part that amazes me:

Carson Palmer accounted for 4,695 total yards and 36 TDs. That accounted for 71.88% of the yards and 70.59% of the offensive TDs.
Cam Newton had 4,473 yds and 45 TDs. Or 76.19% of yardage and 83.33% of the offensive TDs.

 

[Wyank]

Yeah some times my phone doesn't even want to load the reply type box.

[FootballMaestro]

17 minutes ago, ecu88 said:

Thanks!

The part that amazes me:

Carson Palmer accounted for 4,695 total yards and 36 TDs. That accounted for 71.88% of the yards and 70.59% of the offensive TDs.
Cam Newton had 4,473 yds and 45 TDs. Or 76.19% of yardage and 83.33% of the offensive TDs.

 

Because those people are not factoring in rush stats, cause it's not their argument (or they don't care).

Just like how, Newton and Palmer's passing stats are very close (except for passing yards), which we know has a lot to do with Panther receiver drops, poor weather, and Ron Ron philosophy of running the ball much more with 17+ pt leads; no matter how early.