Comparing Carolina & Seattle - Pre-game Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

A solid article at Washington Post - After discussing the Seahawks performance against the Vikings and some of their defensive stats, it focuses on several challenges for Seattle in facing the Panthers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/01/10/seahawks-need-a-different-game-plan-to-stop-cam-newton-and-the-panthers/

EXCERPT:

Next up for Seattle is the Carolina Panthers, who, per Football Outsiders, have the sixth most efficient offense after adjusting for strength of schedule and weighting recent performance more than those from earlier in the season. Minnesota was ranked 15th, so the Seahawks defense will have to step it up to contain Cam Newton and the Panthers offense.

But Seattle won’t want to blitz Newton. His passer rating increased in the face of the blitz, going from 88.3 to 118.2 this season.

 

Instead, the traditional pass rush is going to be the way Seattle wants to go, but that won’t be easy. The Panthers’ offensive line allowed 145 total sacks, hits and hurries on Newton this season, the fourth lowest total allowed.

 

However, if they can get to Newton, they will reduce his effectiveness immensely, dropping his average passer rating from 112.8 to 66.9.

[KB_fan]

Last post by me this afternoon...

Gregg Rosenthal at NFL.com has a divisional round preview piece.  Like PFF and others, he thinks Michael Bennett and Avril could be key players for Seattle, and keys to the game.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000620411/article/what-to-watch-for-divisional-round-games-primer

1. This is one of the sneaky best rivalries in the NFL. It's the sixth time they have played since Russell Wilson was drafted in Seattle, and the Panthers always play Seattle tough. It was a huge mental breakthrough for the Panthers to finally beat Seattle this season, when Panthers tight end Greg Olsen caught a late touchdown to win in Seattle. That set up a trend for this Seahawks defense for giving up late, crushing drives in losses. It almost happened again in Minnesota, but Blair Walsh's miss prevented that.

2. In many ways, these teams are mirror images of each other. But Carolina's running game is far superior entering this contest, perhaps the toughest running game to prepare for in the league. Jonathan Stewart (foot) is expected to return for this game, while Marshawn Lynch's status is a mystery for the Seahawks. The threat of Cam Newton running and all the looks Carolina gives leads to defenses playing slow.

3. The Panthers haven't been to the NFC Championship game since Mike Holmgren, Matt Hasselbeck and friends beat them in 2005. To get back, they will have to continue to throw up the seams against Seattle. Kam Chancellor has been vulnerable in coverage at times this season, including against Olsen. Panthers rookie Devin Funchess also came on late in the year. People think of these teams as defense-first, but they are top five in scoring, too. In short: These are complete teams that can win the title. This would make a great Super Bowl, but we're getting it in the quarterfinals.

Unstoppable performer: Michael Bennett can line up at any position on the defensive line for Seattle and wreak havoc. While the Seahawks have the deepest defense in the league, Bennett is the one Carolina's offensive line should be most worried about. Cliff Avril is also coming off his best season.

[KB_fan]

Just discovered one more nice analysis before I sign off for a few hours.

At WFNZ, the Seattle Times beat writer for the Seahawks has a good discussion of the two teams and the matchup ahead:

https://soundcloud.com/wfnz-610-am/bustin-loose-seattle-times-bob-condotta-weighs-in-on-seahawks-panthers

[Moorgan]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

Unstoppable performer: Michael Bennett can line up at any position on the defensive line for Seattle and wreak havoc. While the Seahawks have the deepest defense in the league, Bennett is the one Carolina's offensive line should be most worried about. Cliff Avril is also coming off his best season.

I remember hearing this about another guy we played in I think week 2. He's a single man game wrecker and he was gonna feast on the Panthers. I don't remember exactly how that went but for some reason I feel confident going in to the game this Sunday.

[RevJ]

KB_fan

This is great work on the computer (No sarcasm intended)

How about you get on a server and mosey over to Iran and scramble all their work on nuclear weapons?

[KB_fan]

Here's a great all-22 film analysis of our run game from our win against the SeaHawks in week 6:

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2016/1/13/10764496/seahawks-vs-panthers-week-6-all-22-film-analysis-of-carolina-s-run

Here's a taste... really informative & interesting analysis:

 

The run game is the foundation for everything the Carolina Panthers do on offense. The Panthers won their Week 6 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks because they were dedicated to running the football.The Panthers have the most diverse rushing attack in the NFL, and they showcased a lot of different runs early on against the Seahawks.

The Panthers used multiple personnel sets, including 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR), 12 (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) and 21 (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) personnel and often ran against seven, eight and even nine man boxes up front. The Panthers ran a good mix of downhill and lateral run plays. They ran their usual mix of power and zone run plays, ran some option runs (zone read and power read), ran the triple option, and also ran reverse runs and jet sweeps with wide receiver Corey "Philly" Brown.

The Panthers love running different run plays out of different personnel groupings and formations. Here the Panthers run a simple Power run out of 21 personnel, against eight Seahawks defenders in the box. The Panthers are in an offset-I formation with an unbalanced offensive line, with tight end Greg Olsen lined up at left tackle, Mike Remmers at right tackle, and Michael Oher as the jumbo right tackle.

 

 

On the very next play the Panthers move to shotgun in 12 personnel, and motion Corey Brown into the backfield to create an Inverted Wishbone look. The Panthers run the inside zone read option against eight defenders in the box.

 

[KB_fan]

Greg Cosell of NFL Films has a preview of Panthers - Seahawks.

Starts at 3:15

 

Really good listen.  A summary of key points:

"most intriguing game of the weekend"

Analyzes differences in teams since week 6.  Big improvement for Seattle offense, esp pass game.

Seattle defense also improved pass rush & more discipline in secondary.

Film shows Carolina offensive line has shown some cracks recently.  A bit worrying in terms of matchup with Seattle.

Carolina must protect with 6 and 7.  Tackles might not hold up - esp Remmers.

Great advantage in Stew being fresh.  Seattle doesn't match up as well to Carolina's run game (as against Vikings).  Carolina had most run yards against Seahawks defense this year.

Wild card: Bobby Wagner who didn't play in week 6.

Passing game matchups:  Carolina vs. Seattle secondary.  They're predictable in their defense - predominantly cover 3.  But they're very good at it.  Carolina 3 by 1 sets - Olsen matched on a corner, big staple for Carolina.  Big element in this game.

Pass protection is critical.  A lot of schemes to defeat cover 3 are deep plays that take time....

How to contain Wilson?  Role of Luke & TD in underneath coverage.

Concern about Panthers secondary with McClain & Finnegan.

What about Baldwin - he plays in the slot so much.  Means Josh likely won't be covering him.  But maybe with 2 weeks to prepare, norman might go in the slot?   Baldwin 80% of his routes from the slot.

Panthers have great stats in terms of Panthers run defense and controlling Lynch.  "Take the option out of the read option"  Panthers have done a really good job with this, playing the run on the inside.

Reason for Seattle's big drop in  sacks allowed due to Wilson getting the ball out much faster.  Carolina must selectively blitz.

Keys for Carolina

1. Carolina MUST make big pass plays (pass protection).  "I believe there will be throws to be made"

2. Defense must be disciplined.  They can selectively blitz.  Seattle has had trouble with that. 

3. Get Wilson on the ground

"This is a really good matchup of two very very solid teams"

[KB_fan]

MMQB playoff preview.  Pretty much too close to call...

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/01/13/nfl-divisional-playoffs-preview

No. 6 Seahawks (11-6) @ No. 1 Panthers (15-1)

Sunday, 1:05 ET, FOX

Carolina offense vs. Seattle defense

Another story you’ll hear 100 times this week: how soon-to-be league MVP Cam Newton’s turning point was his Week 6 road comeback over a Seahawks team that had beaten Carolina five straight times, including last year in the Divisional Round. Indeed, Newton was sensational late in that game and we began to see him in a different light. Since then, he’s only gotten better. But so have the Seahawks. They’re back to playing the basic Cover 3 zone and various straight man-to-man concepts that have defined their success.

Seattle’s pass rush is potent, but Carolina does so much with max protection (i.e. keeping seven blockers in rather than just five) that the key becomes maintaining coverage discipline downfield. Few offenses are as good with deep zone-beater route combinations as offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s. The system’s reliability is one reason the mega-armed Newton has become a top-tier pocket passer. In this game, stopping Carolina down the seams is crucial; it’s where Greg Olsen resides and where Cover 3 zones can be vulnerable depending on the accompanying routes from the outside receivers. So is combatting Carolina’s deep in-breaking routes, something Seattle didn’t do well in Week 6.

• THE BEST SEAHAWKS YET: Andy Benoit makes the case for why this team is the most dangerous one Seattle has ever had

Newton’s greatest value remains in the ground game, where he’s either a runner or a significant decoy who forces linebackers and edge defenders to think more and thus play slower. Here the Panthers are also extremely well designed. Their running game, with its myriad pull-blockers, misdirection fakes and option ghost threats, presents more variables than any other in the league. Consider it strength against strength; the Seahawks are outstanding with gap discipline and have the speed to overcome missteps. With middle linebacker Bobby Wagner healthy (he wasn’t in the first meeting), this matchup is even in every facet.

Advantage: push

 

Seattle offense vs. Carolina defense

The Seahawks passing game has improved in design, and Russell Wilson has responded by playing extremely well from the pocket. And because of his mobility, Seattle’s ground attack remains multipronged, forcing defenders to play slow. For Carolina, it’s often a pure zone-based approach, likely with one high safety on early downs and two high safeties in Tampa 2 on passing downs. The Panthers have improved in man-to-man this season, which they’ll employ in some of their select pressure packages. But given the importance of keeping eyes on Wilson, expect to see almost all zone.

The difference could be Carolina’s linebackers. Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly have the speed to combat Wilson. Also, they’re heady enough to counter a tactically challenging running game and rangy enough to act on their shallow route reads, which impacts Doug Baldwin from the slot. Wilson has become a more disciplined player down the stretch, but he has hurt Carolina over the years with movement late in games. When the quarterback leans on his movement skills, there becomes a fine line between smart and sloppy offensive play. Overall, the better the defense, the more likely the sandlot plays are to be sloppy. But of course, the Vikings learned something on the Tyler Lockett catch, which came after the fumbled snap, that set up Seattle’s first touchdown last Sunday: with Wilson a sloppy play can still yield good results.

Advantage: push

Overall advantage: I’d say push. But if forced to pick one team, I’d narrowly select the Seahawks.

[KB_fan]

Nice red zone stats posted by @caatfan in another thread.  Great stuff:

Quote

I was listening to Brian Billick on the radio this morning, doing picks on the 4 games this weekend. He picked the Panthers, noting our high red zone scoring % - 68.25% on the year (#2 in the league), and 80% in the last 3 games. At home we're 72.73% for the season. Seattle's road game % is only 55.56%.

 

[KB_fan]

Gregg Rosenthal at NFL.com picks the Panthers.  It's a good divisional game preview

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000622638/article/divisional-round-preview-seahawkspanthers?campaign=Twitter_atn

Here are some excerpts:

 

Quote

 

The backstory

This is a matchup worthy of the Super Bowl. Along with Arizona, Carolina and Seattle are two of the three best teams in the league. And they are mirror images with underrated passing attacks, complex running games, and defenses with depth at every position. The Panthers and Seahawks matchup has quietly developed into one of the NFL's best rivalries since Russell Wilson was drafted. This will be the sixth meeting in four years and the second year in a row they meet in the playoffs. While the Panthers didn't win one of those games until their Week 6 comeback in Seattle, almost every game has been close. Four of the five games were decided by less than five points. This matchup is recipe for low scores and fourth-quarter drama. If you are looking for a rivalry to replace Manning vs. Brady, this is the best candidate.

 

 

Quote

 

Avril and Bennett's ability puts Panthers tackles Remmers and Michael Oher in the spotlight, yet we believe the Seahawks defense is actually the group under pressure. That's how hard it is to prepare for the Panthers running game. Watching Carolina on GamePass all week, I was blown away all over again about the complexity and execution of the Panthers running game. This team has been together so long that they have grown an incredible amount of "base" running plays. They can execute a huge variety of runs that look similar, yet play out very differently. They make you prepare for a lot with Stewart, fullback Mike Tolbert, tight end Greg Olsen and various receivers all lining up in the backfield. They caught Seattle being too aggressive in the first matchup, hitting them with misdirection, reverses, or sweeps plays to their wide receiver. They were able to keep running heavily in the fourth quarter in Week 6 despite trailing, and it paid off.

Cam Newton is the key to it all. He is terrific at deciding whether to keep the ball or let Stewart take it at the "mesh" point. For all the talk of the read option as a "fad," the Seahawks and Panthers both gained over 30 rushing yards-per-game out of the formation this year.

 

 

 

Quote

 

Don't count the Seahawks out until the final whistle sounds, even against this Panthers defense. They are 5-2 under Pete Carroll in playoff games in which they have trailed by 9+ points. The rest of the NFL is 6-41 over that span in similar situations. ... This game features the No. 1 scoring offense (Carolina) against Seattle's top-scoring defense. The top defense has won 7 of the last 10 of those meetings. ... Seattle's defense peaked late in the year. They have allowed fewer than 10 points in four of its last six games. In its last six road games, they have given up one offensive touchdown! ... The 2003 Patriots were the last team to finish the regular season with the best record and win the Super Bowl, which shows how tough the Panthers' task will be. ... Both Josh Norman and Richard Sherman allowed fewer than half of the passes sent their way to be completed this season. Norman was targeted 32 more times, but gave up fewer touchdowns (3) than Sherman, who gave up four.

Prediction

 

The top team in the NFL got the toughest draw in the Divisional Round. But every champion must overcome obstacles to reach the promised land, and Seattle has been the NFC bully for the last few years. This is Carolina's time. This matchup could not be more evenly matched and fascinating, but I'll give the edge to the home team with the MVP on its team. Luke Kuechly is the rare linebacker that can limit Wilson's ability to run in the open field. Look for a memorable tackle by Kuechly in the red zone on fourth down to clinch a hard-fought victory for Carolina.

Panthers 24, Seahawks 20

 

 

[Bartin]

Russell Wilson despite all that BS about him having huge hands typically struggles in bad weather especially in the playoffs. I hope it rains. NO in 2013, GB in 2014, MIN in 2015 were all poor games in rainy, windy or cold weather from Wilson. Cloudy, partly cloudy or in domes he has had very good games. There's my analysis.

[Raskle]

I didn't see, in a quick glance of all the previous posts, but I'm curious as to how each QBs yards are gained: either through the air in a long pass, or a dump off with a lot of yards gained by the WR running.

 

KBF, if you haven't done so already, would you mind gathering the stats on that one please? I'd like to see if their yards should be attributed to touch passing or the agility of their WR to make defenders miss / out-hustle DBs. I think  it would make for interesting conversation at a minimum.

Thanks for all of your hard work, it's truly appreciated!!

[KB_fan]

3 minutes ago, Raskle said:

I didn't see, in a quick glance of all the previous posts, but I'm curious as to how each QBs yards are gained: either through the air in a long pass, or a dump off with a lot of yards gained by the WR running.

 

KBF, if you haven't done so already, would you mind gathering the stats on that one please? I'd like to see if their yards should be attributed to touch passing or the agility of their WR to make defenders miss / out-hustle DBs. I think  it would make for interesting conversation at a minimum.

Thanks for all of your hard work, it's truly appreciated!!

I can probably do some research on this in a few hours.  Right now I need to do some cooking...

[Raskle]

15 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

I can probably do some research on this in a few hours.  Right now I need to do some cooking...

No rush, especially since you would be doing me the favor here. I appreciate ya KBF :)