The Buddy Ryan Index - calculating a defense's agressiveness

[KB_fan]

At Football Perspective - an interesting blog for NFL stats geeks, which makes me look like a total Newbie when it comes to data analysis....! - there's an interesting blog entry today attempting to create a "Ryan Index" to measure a team's defensive aggressiveness & success.

http://www.footballperspective.com/the-ryan-index/#more-29841

Quote

 

Ryan’s defenses were known for their big plays — sacks, fumbles, interceptions, and scoring plays.  So I decided to create a formula using some gut and fuzzy math to create a Ryan Index of aggressiveness. Here’s the formula:

• 2 points for every sack
• 4 points for every interception
• 3 points for every forced fumble, 1 point for every fumble recovery
• 6 points for every interception return (on top of the 4 points for the interception)
• 6 points for every fumble return touchdown (on top of the 4 points for forcing and recovering the fumble)
• 5 points for every safety
• Finally, here are the points awarded based on the points allowed in the game:
  • 0 points: +15 points
  • 1-3 points: +12 points
  • 4-7 points: +10 points
  • 8-10: +8
  • 11-14: +6
  • 15-16: +4
  • 17-21: +2
  • 22-23: 0
  • 24-27: -2
  • 28-30: -4
  • 31-34: -7
  • 35+ points: -10

Let’s take some games from the ’85 Bears as examples.

• In a 44-0 thrashing against the Cowboys, the Bears get +15 for the shutout, +12 for recording 6 sacks, +16 for four interceptions, +3 for a forced fumble, +1 for a fumble recovery, and +12 for the two pick sixes.  That totals 59 points, the best game by the Bears all season.

• In Super Bowl XX, Chicago scored a +57.  How?  New England scored 10 points (+8), and committed six turnovers (+24).  Chicago had 7 sacks (+14), a safety (+5), and a return touchdown (+6).

This system isn’t perfect, and I am sure you can quibble with the values.  But I think this does a good enough job of identifying the most aggressive and successful defenses.

 

It's a fun read.   The author applies his formula to all of Buddy Ryan's teams over the years, and then also to 100 other teams from 1935 - 2015.  I'm not sure how these 100 teams were selected.  I think they must be the top 100 teams of a much larger (full NFL database???) sample.

In any case, the Panthers place 3 teams in the top 100:

2015 Panthers #30

1996 Panthers #52

2013 Panthers #72

Interestingly..... for all the talk of their "historic defense", the 2015 Broncos only rank #55 on the list.   Hmmmmm....   Well, it's nice to outrank them, but I'd rather have the trophy!

[Cam's New Arm]

That anal clensing we gave the Cowboys really did us some favors.  Our team had a ton of wow plays.

Denver just smothered you.

[shaqattaq]

Now that I understand the rule, this looks more fun than fantasy football. i'm also working on how to make it a proper drinking game.

[Snake]

On 6/29/2016 at 4:59 PM, KB_fan said:

At Football Perspective - an interesting blog for NFL stats geeks, which makes me look like a total Newbie when it comes to data analysis....! - there's an interesting blog entry today attempting to create a "Ryan Index" to measure a team's defensive aggressiveness & success.

http://www.footballperspective.com/the-ryan-index/#more-29841

It's a fun read.   The author applies his formula to all of Buddy Ryan's teams over the years, and then also to 100 other teams from 1935 - 2015.  I'm not sure how these 100 teams were selected.  I think they must be the top 100 teams of a much larger (full NFL database???) sample.

In any case, the Panthers place 3 teams in the top 100:

2015 Panthers #30

1996 Panthers #52

2013 Panthers #72

Interestingly..... for all the talk of their "historic defense", the 2015 Broncos only rank #55 on the list.   Hmmmmm....   Well, it's nice to outrank them, but I'd rather have the trophy!

Back when Ryan was running the bears D it was all about team. The Panthers were the better team on both sides of the ball in the Super Bowl but Manning was the better storyline. I would not be surprised to see the Broncos end up in the cellar of there division this year.