Week 1: Panthers Loss to Denver - Post-game stats & analysis

[KB_fan]

NFL.com has put together a montage of all of KB's catches in week 1

 

[KB_fan]

This is a nice graph showing week 1 QB throw distance and completion %

Given the week 1 circumstances (v. Denver D, and the headhunting) I'm not too worried about Cam's low numbers.  But if we don't see more deep balls and more explosive passing game next week I might start worrying

 

[KB_fan]

Cross-posting from another thread...

Here's an analysis I did looking at week 1 points scored and points allowed compared to season averages...

 

As is no surprise to most Panthers fans, we have not typically started off guns blazing on offense in week 1 in recent seasons.  I decided to compare week 1 totals since 2011 to season totals for points scored and points allowed.  Here are the tables.

First:  POINTS SCORED

Wow, how's that for consistency.  20 points scored in week 1 three years in a row! 

In 2014 and 2015, those 20 points  were good enough to win, but we were playing the lowly Jags and Bucs, not the SB Champs.

Our week 1 point total averages 16.3 over the past 6 seasons.   Our points scored average in all games from 2011 - 2015 is 24.6 points.  So, on average, we've only scored 66% of our season average in week 1 games.  Our offense typically improves over the course of the season.

Week 1 losses are of course even farther from the average point scores for the season - only 59% of the average.

So, if recent trends continue, we might be able to expect a season points total average of 30-34 points per game in 2016, i.e. very similar to 2015.

You could also look at our average wins to loss point ratios.  From 2011 - 2015 in general we have scored twice as many points in our wins as in our losses.  So, does that mean we'll be putting up 40 points regularly in our wins in 2016?!  Perhaps!

[*obviously 2014 shows that sometimes the season opener total IS close to the season scoring average.  But given Cam's injuries and our Oline woes that season... I'm not expecting a repeat.]

 

BUT..... this analysis cuts both ways, because while there's much reason to think we'll score a lot more than 20 points per game, the fact that we gave up 21 points to Denver is definitely a bit abnormal in our recent week 1 history:

Here's what the POINTS ALLOWED situation looks like:

 

In our Week 1 games for the past 6 seasons, we've allowed an average of 15.8 points.  The 21 points we've allowed to Denver is much higher than we normally allow - very close to our season average points allowed for 2011 - 2015 of 21.46 points.

What's troubling, is that just as our offense typically improves over the course of the season, other team's offenses do too.  Typically, the points we've allowed in week 1 has been lower than our season average for points allowed - about 74% of the average.

So, this could suggest a points allowed season average of 28 points.  YIKES! 

 

But as long as our offense scores 30 - 34 we'll win  Smile...!

I'm not really too worried.   I'm assuming our run defense problems and leaky defense last Thursday can be fixed.   But it will be something to keep an eye on.

 

-----

Update:  6 seasons of data is such a small sample, I decided to also go back and look at how week 1 results compare to season trends for Panthers' entire history.  I'm working on turning that analysis into a main page article.   Look for it tomorrow.  (Tues)

[Darth Biscuit]

This is fantastic stuff and really too much info to digest (at least in the time I have right now) but wow, excellent.

[KB_fan]

4 hours ago, Darth Biscuit said:

This is fantastic stuff and really too much info to digest (at least in the time I have right now) but wow, excellent.

Yeah, I know it's kind of overkill...

I've got some extra time this week because the country I work in is predominantly Muslim, and with the Islamic holiday, there's a 4 day weekend here.

Basically, I view these threads as kind of an archive / reference of sorts, a place to post a bunch of misc. stats, knowing that different readers will be interested in different topics - kind of a big stats buffet each week.

[MV%doe]

On 9/11/2016 at 4:20 PM, KB_fan said:

Here are what the Big Play stats looked like for the Denver game.

First Rushing:

Denver had 3 more rushes of 10 yards+ than we did... 

 

Here are the passing stats - the Panthers had 0 big passing plays to Denver's 1.  So, again, a negative differential:

 

So here's the big play differential summary:

A big play differential of -4 matches our worst total of the 2015 regular season.

For those who might be interested, I'll post the game by game big play stats for the 2015 season below.

 

This is what I had the hardest time with. While 10+ yard passes are not "big plays" they are first downs, most times. I just went back and counted 11 plays that when for 10+ yards.........(two were 9 yards) That is not panther defense! Broncos simply moved the ball far too easy and if not for the turnovers would have scored more.

That FB drive play made me rage!

[MV%doe]

On 9/11/2016 at 5:31 PM, KB_fan said:

I imagine someone will ask about this, so I probably should answer.   There's a reason that my 2015 data above is only for the regular season.  I never finished charting the post-season because I lost heart after the SB loss, and also was in a very busy work season...

So prior to tonight, I couldn't have told you off-hand what our big play results were in the Super Bowl.   I expected them to be pretty similar to Thursday night's game.

I finally broke down and just reviewed the Super Bowl gamebook. Imagine my surprise when I discovered the big play situation was very different:

Rushing Big Plays:    CAR 5  / DEN 2  = +3 CAR

Passing Big Plays:  CAR 2 / DEN 1 = +1 CAR

Overall Big Play Differential:   CAR 7 / DEN 3 = +4 CAR  or the inverse of Thursday's result.

Just goes to show you can't focus on one stat and expect it to explain every game.  It does go to prove that we really did have some opportunities in Santa Clara against Denver in the SB....,

 

In any case, big plays have been an increasing important and exciting part of our offense the past few seasons, and if we are to see success in 2016 I'm thinking we'll need to see figures similar to those in 2015.

Apologies for this somewhat tangential analysis of big plays in 2015...  I'll get back to more detailed Week 1 CAR v DEN game analysis tomorrow.

I enjoy stats and your work. You can win games nearly infinite ways. Turnovers the how, where, when is one of best stats that relates to winning the game being played. Superbowl Miller sack strip was very early in the game and lead to a TD. Momentum just went in the broncos heavily. Points off turnovers, those can be up to 16 point swings.

That said, panthers won the turnovers battle and still lost :-( 

[KB_fan]

2 hours ago, MV%doe said:

While 10+ yard passes are not "big plays" they are first downs

I'm using the definition that Sporting Charts uses for Big Plays, which also factors into their "Toxic Differential" stat:  A combination of big plays & turnovers.

Teams with a lot of big plays and takeaways tend to win (DUH).  Panthers led the league last year in Toxic Differential.

You can read more here:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-big-play-differential/2015/

Quote

Team Big Play Differential measures the difference between the total number of passing and rushing big plays for a team and the total passing and rushing big plays allowed by the teams defense. Passing big play is one in which the yards gained on the passing play equal 25 yards or more while a rushing big play is one in which the yards gained on the rushing play equal 10 yards or more.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2015/

Quote

 

Toxic differential is a combination of three different differential statistics:

1) Turnover differential, which is the difference between the total number of takeaways (opponent turnovers) less the total number of giveaways (team turnovers.

2) Passing Big Play differential, which is the difference between the total number of passing plays of 25+ yards by the team less the total number of passing plays of 25+ yards the team gave up.

3) Rushing Big Play differential, which is the difference between the total number of rushing plays of 10+ yards by the team less the total number of rushing plays of 10+ yards the team gave up.

Simply add these three up.

A higher toxic differential is better.

More about Toxic Differential

The statistic was created by Super Bowl winning coach Brian Billick while he was offensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings.  He's quoted as saying "It’s not merely good enough to avoid turning the ball over; you need to generate big offensive plays as well."  

The holy grail is having a double positive, in other words a team is winning the turnover differential AND the explosive play differential. Over the last 15+ seasons, a majority of teams that have won the Super Bowl finished the regular season in the Top 10 for Toxic Differential.

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

Some interesting context on the question of whether Cam is targeting KB too much:

Quote

 

Newton targeted Benjamin 12 times against the Broncos, one off Benjamin’s career high. Benjamin had 63 percent of the targets among the wideouts -- a higher percentage than any wide receiver reached last season when the Panthers distributed the ball more evenly with Benjamin sidelined.

Tight end Greg Olsen, Newton’s security blanket early in his career, was targeted nine times in Week 1. Together, Olsen and Benjamin accounted for 67.7 percent of Newton’s 31 targets, the highest for a Panthers’ receiving tandem since 2014 when the same duo combined for 68.4 percent of the targets in a Week 14 win at Tampa.

Interestingly, backup quarterback Derek Anderson started that game after Newton injured his back in a one-vehicle crash in uptown Charlotte. Newton liked throwing to Benjamin, too: Newton targeted him at least 12 times in three of the final six games in 2014.

But Shula saw no evidence last week that Newton was forcing throws into coverage on balls to Benjamin and Olsen.

“I think it’s a totally different feel than it was two years ago, (Benjamin’s) rookie year, where you felt like it was kind of Greg and Kelvin,” Shula said. “That feeling is gone.”

 

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article101592837.html#storylink=cpy

[KB_fan]

Nice feature at C-S-R analyzing the performance of our Hog Mollies in Denver:

http://www.derp/2016/9/14/12908530/the-carolina-panthers-hog-molly-report-week-1-2016-panthers-at-broncos

Here are a few excerpts:

Quote

In the spirit of Mr. Gettleman, and the philosophy of building a team from the inside out, my goal will be to watch the hog mollies each game during the season, and give them a grade based on their performance. This week we will look at the “loss” to the Denver Broncos, and see where we went right, and where we went wrong.

 

Quote

 

Offensive Hogmollies

Yards per carry: 4.9 (5th NFL)

Third down conversions: 9 out of 15 (3rd NFL)

Sacks given up: 3 (T-22nd)

Running plays less than 3 yards (not including sacks): 3

Rating: 4 out of 5 Bacon Bangers

 

 

Quote

 

Defensive Hogmollies

Yards per carry allowed: 5.1 (T-29th NFL)

3rd Down Conversions allowed: 5 out of 10 (T-21st NFL)

Sacks: 2 (T-12th NFL)

Running plays less than 3 yards: 11

Rating: 2 out of 5 Pork Pounders

 

 

[KB_fan]

Here's perhaps one of the most helpful game analysis pieces, by Billy M at BBR:

http://blackandbluereview.com/breaking-down-panthers-broncos/

It provides film breakdown of the role of Jonathan Stewart and the ways in which Denver D changed things up from the 1st half to the 2nd.

Really worth the time to review.  Gotta hand it to Wade Phillips.  He's a fantastic D Coordinator.

[KB_fan]

A bit more perspective on how extremely close most of the week 1 games were:

 

 

[KB_fan]

It's been a busy week, and it's been hard for me to find time to write up any kind of summary of important week 1 trends and statistical highlights.  But I finally got a chance to do a bit more review and digging into the gamebook data from week 1, comparing it with week 1 games from 2011 - 2015; and also the season average for 2015.

Here are a few areas where the Panthers played notably above or below average (compared to recent week 1 results and/or compared to the 2015 season):

(Note: there is a summary TL;DR at the end for those of you who want to skip the tables.)

 

1. Scoring

The Panthers got off to a very strong start in scoring in the first half, especially compared to recent week 1 games, but unfortunately one half does not a football game make.  Our second half was very poor, both by week 1 and 2015 season averages.

Not being able to score another TD hurt the Panthers as well.  Obviously the Denver D had a lot to do with that, but a high touchdown success %, paired with solid field goal success was a key to Panthers wins last season, and both percentages were too low against Denver.  Give credit to Denver for scoring 3 touchdowns in spite of turning the ball over 3 times.  They were persistent on offense.

 

2. Rushing

Rushing was one of the big stories of the game, for both teams.  There's reason for the Panthers to be encouraged re: their own rushing, but obviously also quite worried about our run defense, as has already been discussed in numerous threads:

Panthers had a lot of success in their rushing game - especially compared with recent week 1 averages.  It's quite unusual for the Panthers to have such a percentage of rushing yards and such a high rushing effectiveness ratio (Rushing Yards % / Rushing Plays %).  Only twice last season (against Houston week 2, and in our week 16 loss to Atlanta) was our rushing effectiveness greater or equal to 1.  Certainly it's encouraging that the Panthers established their run game early in the season.

BUT....  Our run defense was awful. Only against two teams in 2015 did we allow higher yards and yards per carry.  (Week 7 vs Philly;;  Wk 15 vs. Giants)

 

3. PASSING:

Both teams struggled to pass, especially deep passes.    Here's a look at the passing data for the Panthers.  What really strikes me is that attempts and completion numbers were pretty close to average, it's the yardage and length of the passes that was so unusually low:

Passing figures were also low for the Broncos, but it's hard to know how much of that to attribute to the Panthers Defense vs. a newbie QB.  (I'll look at some defense stats below).

 

4. BIG PLAYS

I've discussed this already earlier in the week, but one of the stats that really jumped off the page at me was the Panthers' negative big play differential of -4 which equaled their worst performance of the 2015 season (Week 6 against Seattle;  week 16 loss to Atlanta).  Panthers only had 3 runs of 10+ yards to Broncos 6, and 0 deep passing completions (25+ yards) compared to the Broncos 1.   Big plays were a big part of our success last season, with an average of 6 total big plays per game.  Against the Broncos we only had 3.

 

5) Offense efficiency: 1st & 3rd downs and Red Zone Conversion:

Let's look at the positive side once again.  The Panthers offense played remarkably well for a week 1 game.  Much better than our 2011 - 2015 week 1 average, and very close to or above our 2015 season average, when the Panthers led the league in scoring.

We WERE in position to win the game.  A missed field goal is very sad, but the offense did move the ball pretty well   Given that in recent seasons our offense has gotten stronger over the course of each season, these stat lines have to be pretty scary to Panthers opponents.

We needed to tighten up our defense on the Broncos 3rd downs, however..  We allowed them to convert 50% of their 3rd downs:

The Panthers only allowed a similar or higher % in terms of opponents' 3rd down % in 4 games last season (week 3 New Orleans; week 4 at Tampa; week 16 at Altanta, week 17 vs Tampa).  By contrast in 7 games last season the Panthers held opponents to a 30% or lower 3rd down conversion %.

 

6.  Here's  some interesting data from the drive charts:

There's a bit of an all or nothing trend for the Panthers offense.  We dominated thoroughly on some drives (above average), but did have higher than normal % of futile drives (3 and out or drives for no gain) as well.

The Panthers did a better than usual job for week 1 in scoring when they were deep in opponents territory.  But one glaring weakness was the inability to capitalize off of turnovers.  The Panthers led the league last year in net points off of turnovers, but against the Broncos the Panthers turned only 1 of 3 turnovers into points.  Ultimately that was a BIG difference in the game.

Looking at the Broncos drive data, it's quite scary to be reminded how often the Broncos were deep in Panthers territory.  The Panthers were fortunate to come up with the 3 takeaways deep in their own territory to stop the Broncos from scoring more.  The Broncos missed lots of opportunities, thankfully.  It's exciting that the Panthers DID make plays and force turnovers, no question, but there's also no question that the Broncos gashed the Panthers D quite badly on some plays:

TWO THIRDS of Broncos drives crossed the Panthers 40 yard line!!!!  YIKES!!!!  There was only one game in last year's regular season where the Panthers allowed an opponent to cross the 40 more than 50% of the time:  the week 16 loss to Atlanta.

 

7.  Defensive Pressure:

Both teams had a total of 20 pressures / sacks / takeaways.  The big difference was in QB hurries.  The Panthers definitely need to get more pressure in terms of a pass rush. 

Also the Broncos Pass Defense stats show why the Panthers couldn't get much going in the passing game.

 

8.  Finally, the very sad sad story of PENALTIES:

Lastly, unfortunately, one cannot ignore the penalty stats for the game.  They are pretty telling.   I will never be one to jump up and down and scream that games are rigged or blame losses on the refs, but the one-sided nature of the penalty calls is pretty striking and it made a difference, fairly or unfairly....

Only two teams the Panthers played last regular season (Indy week 8 and the Atlanta loss in week 16) had lower opponent penalty totals, and no game in the 2015 regular season had a similarly high penalty yard differential.    The highest penalty yard differential against the Panthers last season was 41 yards against the Giants.

 

SUMMARY  (TL;DR):

So there you have an overview of some of the key themes and stats of the week 1 loss to the Broncos

Reasons to be encouraged:

1. Strong 1st half, got off to an early lead - much stronger than most of our recent week 1 games in that respect

2.  Panthers rushing game.  Moved the ball well.

3.  General offensive efficiency:  Panthers 1st downs; 3rd down conversions; Red Zone %  and general ability to convert good field position to points (except for the final missed FG).  Offense put the team in position to win.

4. Panthers takeaways.

 

Reasons to be discouraged:

1. Poor run defense / gave up 6 big plays (10+ yards rushing)

2. Not good enough in 3rd down defense;  Consistently allowed Broncos deep in Panther territory.

3. Penalties

4. Not enough pressure on the QB

5. Didn't convert enough takeaways into points.

6. No vertical passing game.

 

[KB_fan]

I turned the long post above into a main page article on the Huddle in case it's easier to read or to share...

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/2016/09/16/carolina-panthers-game-review/