Offseason approach for long term success

[panther4life]

First of all, we are officially out of cap hell. No more having to waste cap space on dead money from players who were cut for the long term health of the team. 

We currently reside at 8th in overall cap space. In 2018 as it sits we still remain in 8th, even with the cap hits going up for the core. 

Speaking of our core. We are really only committed to roughly about 4 players through 2018 when looking at the contracts. (If you're wondering where Davis is, 2018 is a voidable year in his contract)

Cam- contract runs through 2020

Luke contract runs through 2021

Kalil, contract runs through 2018. Kalil will be 32 this March.

Olsen, contract runs through 2018. Olsen will be 32 this March.

Sure Coleman and Oher have contracts through 2018 but they aren't getting paid top dollar like the 4 above and have less "guaranteed money". Friendly reminder, if you cut a player before their contract expires you still have to charge any "guaranteed" money against the cap within 2 years of releasing such player(with at least half hitting year 1 of the release). The penalty for releasing these 2 by that timeframe is minimal.

So as it sits, 

Cam and Luke are the only players the franchise is married to long term (2019 and beyond). As rookie contracts expire, there will be other players who could enter this mix. The 2 first potential players are Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei. 

So lets highlight our top players on rookie deal's who may need big money/long term extensions down the road.

1. Kawann Short, free agent now
2. Star Lotulelei, free agent next year (2018)
3. Trai Turner, free agent next year(2018)
4. Kelvin Benjamin, free agent next year(2018)
5. Kony Ealy, free agent next year(2018)
6. Shaq Thompson free agent in 2019
7. Devin Funchess, free agent in 2019

Ok, I'm stopping there. Remember only Luke Cam are signed to big deals past the 2018 season. The other 3 core players with big contracts, will command less money or retire (Davis,Olsen,Kalil)

With that in mind, I feel we should do everything within reason to retain and lock up Short,Star and Turner long term this offseason. With the way new contracts tend to reset the market every year, it would be wise to go ahead and reward those 3 now vs dragging it out and making them more expensive down the road. They have all been good enough to warrant the money now vs testing the water on them any longer and making them more expensive a year later.

If we don't sign any long term and simply franchise Short this year we'd be facing all of these guys hitting free agency next year.

• Short (top 3 DT's currently average 17.3 Million per year)
• Star  (top 8 DT's currently average 14.2 Million per year, and dropoff after them is massive. Number 9 drops to 9 million yearly average, 15 drops to 6 million yearly average)
• Turner(top 3 guards earn yearly average of 10.5 Million)
• Benjamin
• Ealy

Thats tough when the top 3 could all easily warrant a franchise tag. Benjamin and Ealy at this point would not, but things can change here. However before you panic, just remember the cap is increasing a ton each year. G-man's first year it was 120 Million. 4 years later its jumped 48 Million.

 Let's now look at our other 2017 free agents of note.

Pending Unrestricted Free Agents, age:

1. Charles Johnson(30) - He wants to come back and he likely will do so at last years price of 2.5 million or less. Well worth it, excellent value for the money
2. Tedd Ginn Jr.(31) - I assume he wants to come back and he will likely do so at last years price of 2.75 or less. Decent Value, hopefully he'd take a little less this year
3. Mario Addison(29) - I have no idea what he wants, but have a feeling he may have earned himself a big payday elsewhere. 
4. A.J Klein(25) - Again, no idea what he's thinking he's worth, but his value is not that high to us. A similar player could be found in middle to late round of draft.
5. Colin Jones(29) - Should be very cheap and contributes well on special teams. 

Restricted Free Agents

1. Norwell - Official numbers aren't out yet, but I say no reason not to use the 2nd round tender on him. Should be just above 2.5 Million for 1 year. This provides us right of first refusal on any other contract he may be offered and if we choose not to match, we get a 2nd round pick as compensation.
2. Philly Brown- More pressing needs than worrying about him at the moment. If he wants to let the dust settle i'm sure we can work out fair compensation. If he leaves I hope he gets more than he's worth
3. Horton- Same as above.

 

Other teams unrestricted Free agents. Ok I am not going to provide that whole list. Let's just say its rather bare in positions that would be worth us breaking the bank for. 2 best players out there are Eric Berry and Pierre Paul. I just don't think either will end up with us, due to the money they will command on open market.

Quick recap so far

• We have enough cap space to resign or franchise Short. I'm okay with either option but we can not let him walk with 0 compensation. Our core is getting to thin as it is.  
• We can also go ahead and extend Star and Turner this year and would be wise to do,as market value rises yearly.
• Norwell getting a 2nd round tender is a no brainer, cost us 2.6 million roughly. (We did the same with Remmers last year)
• Ginn and Johnson can both likely be retained for a combined 5 million or less next year. Probably worth doing, but limit the "guaranteed portions" in case we find better solutions, which would allow us to cut them down the road with minimal effect on cap. 

Now this is where things look tough for us but completely doable, with a lot of skill and a little luck.

So far its quite simple to see we have the means to retain every starter from last year and do so somewhat comfortably. 

Our first round pick if we stay put will/should/better! add a new playmaking starter. According to the experts that could either be a secondary player, DE, or dynamic HB. 

--Problem is this still leaves a gaping hole at LT. Even Gettleman, who was very ambivalent in todays presser, would not commit to Oher for next year. Even if he comes back, he's just suitable and not a long term solution. Thats best case scenario, worst case is he regresses, cant stay healthy, or does a 180 and retires!

Only work around I can find here, is to find a sleeper LT prospect in the 2nd-3rd round or use one of those picks to trade for a proven vet! I prefer the trade route, as its safer. However it would also be more expensive.

Lets say all the top DB'S and DE's are gone, or our front office doesn't believe in those players. They can either A. trade back or B. Select Fournette who would still be on the board in this scenario. I'm okay with a Good immediate impact player at DB,DE OR Fournette (only because he looks that good).

 

W.R.? Okay, we still have question marks here. We need a consistent threat to take it to the house, in the same vein as Ginn, but a player with reliable hands and route running skills. We just cant remain "status quo" as Gman himself said and just hope that its all okay. The good news here is I have seen some badass receivers available in the 2nd round in recent drafts (Allen Robinson comes to mind).

RT? Are we really ready to trust Williams taking over there? Can he stay healthy, even if he's capable talent wise? At minimum we need better depth here. I trust, somewhere in free agency someone should be available for this role at a fair price.

DE? Is Addison ready for the next level? Will he stay without breaking the bank? Can Kony finally be counted on as a full time starter? Johnson have enough left in the tank to stay on as a starter?  Will there be a sure fire, ready to start day 1 DE available at 8? Should we not fug around and trade up to get one, if there is such a player? Does Pierre Paul really represent a good value and can we win the bidding war if interested?

CB's. Okay even if Bradberry and Worley progress nicely next year, we still need some insurance here. If theres an immediate impact player that could start day 1, I don't think we can rule this out. In addition, it would be really nice to find a solid vet to help with their development and at least provide depth. 

S? Somehow some way, we have to move Coleman back to FS. He got a nice extension to play FS and he did not earn the money playing SS. Not his fault, he was just being a team player, adjusting to 100% new faces all around him. Its been mentioned before maybe pick 8 solves this problem.

LT? I covered it up top, but we can not just sit on our hands and expect Oher to return to 2015 health and performance. I can not stomach the thought of Cam getting demolished yet another year because we don't have a good blindside protector for him.

 

Bottom line is there is a path to right the ship and start to replenish our core with more youth. While I don't necessarily trust him, I am definitely rooting for GMAN to fix this and not just for 1 year   with band aids that leave us on this never-ending journey of being unable to reach back to back winning seasons!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

Nice write up. 

A lot to think about.  I could see DG spending FA money on a good DE - ala JPP, but agree he may be in high demand, and there's no guarantee, not even a high probability that he'll even make it to the FA market.  Heck, he may feel loyal to the Giants for sticking with him after the fireworks disaster...

 

[Untouchable]

Great write up.  I have just a couple of thoughts to keep in mind.  Both Benjamin and Shaq have 5th year options and likely won't hit there free agency until the following year that you have listed.  Also, CJ got a little over to 6.5 mil this season when you add in his dead money so I'd expect a new contract for him much closer to that then 2.5 mil.  As for the salary cap increase it is almost negligible and is in line with about 7% annually, and contracts will inflate to help take that up.  One of the great things about carrying over all that unspent salary cap is that it gives us a better chance to keep members of our aging core while also getting long term deals done with the young players who will take their spot as core players.

[Ace_Aladdin]

16 hours ago, panther4life said:

First of all, we are officially out of cap hell. No more having to waste cap space on dead money from players who were cut for the long term health of the team. 

We currently reside at 8th in overall cap space. In 2018 as it sits we still remain in 8th, even with the cap hits going up for the core. 

Speaking of our core. We are really only committed to roughly about 4 players through 2018 when looking at the contracts. (If you're wondering where Davis is, 2018 is a voidable year in his contract)

Cam- contract runs through 2020

Luke contract runs through 2021

Kalil, contract runs through 2018. Kalil will be 32 this March.

Olsen, contract runs through 2018. Olsen will be 32 this March.

Sure Coleman and Oher have contracts through 2018 but they aren't getting paid top dollar like the 4 above and have less "guaranteed money". Friendly reminder, if you cut a player before their contract expires you still have to charge any "guaranteed" money against the cap within 2 years of releasing such player(with at least half hitting year 1 of the release). The penalty for releasing these 2 by that timeframe is minimal.

So as it sits, 

Cam and Luke are the only players the franchise is married to long term (2019 and beyond). As rookie contracts expire, there will be other players who could enter this mix. The 2 first potential players are Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei. 

So lets highlight our top players on rookie deal's who may need big money/long term extensions down the road.

1. Kawann Short, free agent now
2. Star Lotulelei, free agent next year (2018)
3. Trai Turner, free agent next year(2018)
4. Kelvin Benjamin, free agent next year(2018)
5. Kony Ealy, free agent next year(2018)
6. Shaq Thompson free agent in 2019
7. Devin Funchess, free agent in 2019

Ok, I'm stopping there. Remember only Luke Cam are signed to big deals past the 2018 season. The other 3 core players with big contracts, will command less money or retire (Davis,Olsen,Kalil)

With that in mind, I feel we should do everything within reason to retain and lock up Short,Star and Turner long term this offseason. With the way new contracts tend to reset the market every year, it would be wise to go ahead and reward those 3 now vs dragging it out and making them more expensive down the road. They have all been good enough to warrant the money now vs testing the water on them any longer and making them more expensive a year later.

If we don't sign any long term and simply franchise Short this year we'd be facing all of these guys hitting free agency next year.

• Short (top 3 DT's currently average 17.3 Million per year)
• Star  (top 8 DT's currently average 14.2 Million per year, and dropoff after them is massive. Number 9 drops to 9 million yearly average, 15 drops to 6 million yearly average)
• Turner(top 3 guards earn yearly average of 10.5 Million)
• Benjamin
• Ealy

Thats tough when the top 3 could all easily warrant a franchise tag. Benjamin and Ealy at this point would not, but things can change here. However before you panic, just remember the cap is increasing a ton each year. G-man's first year it was 120 Million. 4 years later its jumped 48 Million.

 Let's now look at our other 2017 free agents of note.

Pending Unrestricted Free Agents, age:

1. Charles Johnson(30) - He wants to come back and he likely will do so at last years price of 2.5 million or less. Well worth it, excellent value for the money
2. Tedd Ginn Jr.(31) - I assume he wants to come back and he will likely do so at last years price of 2.75 or less. Decent Value, hopefully he'd take a little less this year
3. Mario Addison(29) - I have no idea what he wants, but have a feeling he may have earned himself a big payday elsewhere. 
4. A.J Klein(25) - Again, no idea what he's thinking he's worth, but his value is not that high to us. A similar player could be found in middle to late round of draft.
5. Colin Jones(29) - Should be very cheap and contributes well on special teams. 

Restricted Free Agents

1. Norwell - Official numbers aren't out yet, but I say no reason not to use the 2nd round tender on him. Should be just above 2.5 Million for 1 year. This provides us right of first refusal on any other contract he may be offered and if we choose not to match, we get a 2nd round pick as compensation.
2. Philly Brown- More pressing needs than worrying about him at the moment. If he wants to let the dust settle i'm sure we can work out fair compensation. If he leaves I hope he gets more than he's worth
3. Horton- Same as above.

 

Other teams unrestricted Free agents. Ok I am not going to provide that whole list. Let's just say its rather bare in positions that would be worth us breaking the bank for. 2 best players out there are Eric Berry and Pierre Paul. I just don't think either will end up with us, due to the money they will command on open market.

Quick recap so far

• We have enough cap space to resign or franchise Short. I'm okay with either option but we can not let him walk with 0 compensation. Our core is getting to thin as it is.  
• We can also go ahead and extend Star and Turner this year and would be wise to do,as market value rises yearly.
• Norwell getting a 2nd round tender is a no brainer, cost us 2.6 million roughly. (We did the same with Remmers last year)
• Ginn and Johnson can both likely be retained for a combined 5 million or less next year. Probably worth doing, but limit the "guaranteed portions" in case we find better solutions, which would allow us to cut them down the road with minimal effect on cap. 

Now this is where things look tough for us but completely doable, with a lot of skill and a little luck.

So far its quite simple to see we have the means to retain every starter from last year and do so somewhat comfortably. 

Our first round pick if we stay put will/should/better! add a new playmaking starter. According to the experts that could either be a secondary player, DE, or dynamic HB. 

--Problem is this still leaves a gaping hole at LT. Even Gettleman, who was very ambivalent in todays presser, would not commit to Oher for next year. Even if he comes back, he's just suitable and not a long term solution. Thats best case scenario, worst case is he regresses, cant stay healthy, or does a 180 and retires!

Only work around I can find here, is to find a sleeper LT prospect in the 2nd-3rd round or use one of those picks to trade for a proven vet! I prefer the trade route, as its safer. However it would also be more expensive.

Lets say all the top DB'S and DE's are gone, or our front office doesn't believe in those players. They can either A. trade back or B. Select Fournette who would still be on the board in this scenario. I'm okay with a Good immediate impact player at DB,DE OR Fournette (only because he looks that good).

 

W.R.? Okay, we still have question marks here. We need a consistent threat to take it to the house, in the same vein as Ginn, but a player with reliable hands and route running skills. We just cant remain "status quo" as Gman himself said and just hope that its all okay. The good news here is I have seen some badass receivers available in the 2nd round in recent drafts (Allen Robinson comes to mind).

RT? Are we really ready to trust Williams taking over there? Can he stay healthy, even if he's capable talent wise? At minimum we need better depth here. I trust, somewhere in free agency someone should be available for this role at a fair price.

DE? Is Addison ready for the next level? Will he stay without breaking the bank? Can Kony finally be counted on as a full time starter? Johnson have enough left in the tank to stay on as a starter?  Will there be a sure fire, ready to start day 1 DE available at 8? Should we not fug around and trade up to get one, if there is such a player? Does Pierre Paul really represent a good value and can we win the bidding war if interested?

CB's. Okay even if Bradberry and Worley progress nicely next year, we still need some insurance here. If theres an immediate impact player that could start day 1, I don't think we can rule this out. In addition, it would be really nice to find a solid vet to help with their development and at least provide depth. 

S? Somehow some way, we have to move Coleman back to FS. He got a nice extension to play FS and he did not earn the money playing SS. Not his fault, he was just being a team player, adjusting to 100% new faces all around him. Its been mentioned before maybe pick 8 solves this problem.

LT? I covered it up top, but we can not just sit on our hands and expect Oher to return to 2015 health and performance. I can not stomach the thought of Cam getting demolished yet another year because we don't have a good blindside protector for him.

 

Bottom line is there is a path to right the ship and start to replenish our core with more youth. While I don't necessarily trust him, I am definitely rooting for GMAN to fix this and not just for 1 year   with band aids that leave us on this never-ending journey of being unable to reach back to back winning seasons!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The draft aft is key to keeping your cap hit low, time to invest 

[Ace_Aladdin]

16 hours ago, panther4life said:

First of all, we are officially out of cap hell. No more having to waste cap space on dead money from players who were cut for the long term health of the team. 

We currently reside at 8th in overall cap space. In 2018 as it sits we still remain in 8th, even with the cap hits going up for the core. 

Speaking of our core. We are really only committed to roughly about 4 players through 2018 when looking at the contracts. (If you're wondering where Davis is, 2018 is a voidable year in his contract)

Cam- contract runs through 2020

Luke contract runs through 2021

Kalil, contract runs through 2018. Kalil will be 32 this March.

Olsen, contract runs through 2018. Olsen will be 32 this March.

Sure Coleman and Oher have contracts through 2018 but they aren't getting paid top dollar like the 4 above and have less "guaranteed money". Friendly reminder, if you cut a player before their contract expires you still have to charge any "guaranteed" money against the cap within 2 years of releasing such player(with at least half hitting year 1 of the release). The penalty for releasing these 2 by that timeframe is minimal.

So as it sits, 

Cam and Luke are the only players the franchise is married to long term (2019 and beyond). As rookie contracts expire, there will be other players who could enter this mix. The 2 first potential players are Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei. 

So lets highlight our top players on rookie deal's who may need big money/long term extensions down the road.

1. Kawann Short, free agent now
2. Star Lotulelei, free agent next year (2018)
3. Trai Turner, free agent next year(2018)
4. Kelvin Benjamin, free agent next year(2018)
5. Kony Ealy, free agent next year(2018)
6. Shaq Thompson free agent in 2019
7. Devin Funchess, free agent in 2019

Ok, I'm stopping there. Remember only Luke Cam are signed to big deals past the 2018 season. The other 3 core players with big contracts, will command less money or retire (Davis,Olsen,Kalil)

With that in mind, I feel we should do everything within reason to retain and lock up Short,Star and Turner long term this offseason. With the way new contracts tend to reset the market every year, it would be wise to go ahead and reward those 3 now vs dragging it out and making them more expensive down the road. They have all been good enough to warrant the money now vs testing the water on them any longer and making them more expensive a year later.

If we don't sign any long term and simply franchise Short this year we'd be facing all of these guys hitting free agency next year.

• Short (top 3 DT's currently average 17.3 Million per year)
• Star  (top 8 DT's currently average 14.2 Million per year, and dropoff after them is massive. Number 9 drops to 9 million yearly average, 15 drops to 6 million yearly average)
• Turner(top 3 guards earn yearly average of 10.5 Million)
• Benjamin
• Ealy

Thats tough when the top 3 could all easily warrant a franchise tag. Benjamin and Ealy at this point would not, but things can change here. However before you panic, just remember the cap is increasing a ton each year. G-man's first year it was 120 Million. 4 years later its jumped 48 Million.

 Let's now look at our other 2017 free agents of note.

Pending Unrestricted Free Agents, age:

1. Charles Johnson(30) - He wants to come back and he likely will do so at last years price of 2.5 million or less. Well worth it, excellent value for the money
2. Tedd Ginn Jr.(31) - I assume he wants to come back and he will likely do so at last years price of 2.75 or less. Decent Value, hopefully he'd take a little less this year
3. Mario Addison(29) - I have no idea what he wants, but have a feeling he may have earned himself a big payday elsewhere. 
4. A.J Klein(25) - Again, no idea what he's thinking he's worth, but his value is not that high to us. A similar player could be found in middle to late round of draft.
5. Colin Jones(29) - Should be very cheap and contributes well on special teams. 

Restricted Free Agents

1. Norwell - Official numbers aren't out yet, but I say no reason not to use the 2nd round tender on him. Should be just above 2.5 Million for 1 year. This provides us right of first refusal on any other contract he may be offered and if we choose not to match, we get a 2nd round pick as compensation.
2. Philly Brown- More pressing needs than worrying about him at the moment. If he wants to let the dust settle i'm sure we can work out fair compensation. If he leaves I hope he gets more than he's worth
3. Horton- Same as above.

 

Other teams unrestricted Free agents. Ok I am not going to provide that whole list. Let's just say its rather bare in positions that would be worth us breaking the bank for. 2 best players out there are Eric Berry and Pierre Paul. I just don't think either will end up with us, due to the money they will command on open market.

Quick recap so far

• We have enough cap space to resign or franchise Short. I'm okay with either option but we can not let him walk with 0 compensation. Our core is getting to thin as it is.  
• We can also go ahead and extend Star and Turner this year and would be wise to do,as market value rises yearly.
• Norwell getting a 2nd round tender is a no brainer, cost us 2.6 million roughly. (We did the same with Remmers last year)
• Ginn and Johnson can both likely be retained for a combined 5 million or less next year. Probably worth doing, but limit the "guaranteed portions" in case we find better solutions, which would allow us to cut them down the road with minimal effect on cap. 

Now this is where things look tough for us but completely doable, with a lot of skill and a little luck.

So far its quite simple to see we have the means to retain every starter from last year and do so somewhat comfortably. 

Our first round pick if we stay put will/should/better! add a new playmaking starter. According to the experts that could either be a secondary player, DE, or dynamic HB. 

--Problem is this still leaves a gaping hole at LT. Even Gettleman, who was very ambivalent in todays presser, would not commit to Oher for next year. Even if he comes back, he's just suitable and not a long term solution. Thats best case scenario, worst case is he regresses, cant stay healthy, or does a 180 and retires!

Only work around I can find here, is to find a sleeper LT prospect in the 2nd-3rd round or use one of those picks to trade for a proven vet! I prefer the trade route, as its safer. However it would also be more expensive.

Lets say all the top DB'S and DE's are gone, or our front office doesn't believe in those players. They can either A. trade back or B. Select Fournette who would still be on the board in this scenario. I'm okay with a Good immediate impact player at DB,DE OR Fournette (only because he looks that good).

 

W.R.? Okay, we still have question marks here. We need a consistent threat to take it to the house, in the same vein as Ginn, but a player with reliable hands and route running skills. We just cant remain "status quo" as Gman himself said and just hope that its all okay. The good news here is I have seen some badass receivers available in the 2nd round in recent drafts (Allen Robinson comes to mind).

RT? Are we really ready to trust Williams taking over there? Can he stay healthy, even if he's capable talent wise? At minimum we need better depth here. I trust, somewhere in free agency someone should be available for this role at a fair price.

DE? Is Addison ready for the next level? Will he stay without breaking the bank? Can Kony finally be counted on as a full time starter? Johnson have enough left in the tank to stay on as a starter?  Will there be a sure fire, ready to start day 1 DE available at 8? Should we not fug around and trade up to get one, if there is such a player? Does Pierre Paul really represent a good value and can we win the bidding war if interested?

CB's. Okay even if Bradberry and Worley progress nicely next year, we still need some insurance here. If theres an immediate impact player that could start day 1, I don't think we can rule this out. In addition, it would be really nice to find a solid vet to help with their development and at least provide depth. 

S? Somehow some way, we have to move Coleman back to FS. He got a nice extension to play FS and he did not earn the money playing SS. Not his fault, he was just being a team player, adjusting to 100% new faces all around him. Its been mentioned before maybe pick 8 solves this problem.

LT? I covered it up top, but we can not just sit on our hands and expect Oher to return to 2015 health and performance. I can not stomach the thought of Cam getting demolished yet another year because we don't have a good blindside protector for him.

 

Bottom line is there is a path to right the ship and start to replenish our core with more youth. While I don't necessarily trust him, I am definitely rooting for GMAN to fix this and not just for 1 year   with band aids that leave us on this never-ending journey of being unable to reach back to back winning seasons!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The draft aft is key to keeping your cap hit low, time to invest 

[panther4life]

29 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Great write up.  I have just a couple of thoughts to keep in mind.  Both Benjamin and Shaq have 5th year options and likely won't hit there free agency until the following year that you have listed.  Also, CJ got a little over to 6.5 mil this season when you add in his dead money so I'd expect a new contract for him much closer to that then 2.5 mil.  As for the salary cap increase it is almost negligible and is in line with about 7% annually, and contracts will inflate to help take that up.  One of the great things about carrying over all that unspent salary cap is that it gives us a better chance to keep members of our aging core while also getting long term deals done with the young players who will take their spot as core players.

Good points on the 5th year options. CJ only got 2.5 million in new money last year ,his cap hit with the "dead money" was already paid for. So I don't expect him to see much more if any in new money next year than the 2.5 than he got last year.

[Untouchable]

20 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Good points on the 5th year options. CJ only got 2.5 million in new money last year ,his cap hit with the "dead money" was already paid for. So I don't expect him to see much more if any in new money next year than the 2.5 than he got last year.

I see your point.  I'm seeing it as more of a rationalization for taking (and offering) less money this season.