Deeper look at positional value in the draft.

[panther4life]

Here is the 2017 Franchise tag values by position in Million's. Keep in mind LT would be much higher if classified by itself. Same can be said for 3-4 OLB.

• QB- 21.2 
• DE 16.9
• WR 15.8
• LB  14.5 (Skewed by 3-4 OLB pass rushers)
• OL 14.2 (Guards and centers bring this number down for top LT's)
• CB 14.2
• DT 13.8
• RB 12.1
• S    10.8
• TE 9.780

Past draft's since the new CBA verify this is a pretty decent method to determine which positions team will reach for inside the top 10 in order to obtain the best value with their picks.

In order of positions taken in the top 8 since 11

• QB           10
• LT             9
• WR           8
• 3-4 OLB   6
• DE           5
• CB           4
• DT           2
• RB           2
• G             1
• S              1

Other interesting things to note.

 The number 1 overall pick over the past 20 years has been either  a  QB,DE, Or OT. Last player at a different position to go number 1 overall was Keyshawn Johnson WR.

Picks 1-3 over the past 10 years are exclusive to the following positions QB,DE, OT, DT,RB,or 3-4 LB. Last player at a different position to crack the top 3 was Calvin Johnson WR.

The next position to crack inside the top 4 after WR is CB. Charles Woodson was the last to do it. He was drafted in 98. 

 Over the past 10 years only these Corners have made it inside the top 10.

• Joe Haden            (7th overall in 2010)
• Morris Clairborne (6th overall in 2012)
• Stephen Gilmore  (10th overall in 2010)
• Dee Milliner        (9th overall in 2013)
• Justin Gilbert       (8th overall in 2014)
• Eli Apple             (10th overall in 2016)

Not a very inspiring list based on history. 

Here is every safety taken top 10 in the last 10 years

• Mark Barron (8th overall in 2012)
• Eric Berry     (5th overall in 2010)
• Laron Landry (6th overall in 2007).

Go back one more year and you'll see Michael Huff (7th overall) and Donte Whitner (8th overall).

1 thing they all have in common? They are SS'. Does this give Adams a tie breaker above Hooker ? One could easily argue FS is a bigger need for teams picking 4-7. 

DE'S to go 1-5 overall in past 10 years: 7

DE'S to go 6-14: 5

To me I interpret that to confirm the belief there is a feeding frenzy on DE's inside the top 5. After that they tend fall to the mid 1st to early 2nd. So unfortunately for us we likely won't find the best value at DE sitting there at 8. 

Lastly lets take a look at TE's. Rarely do they go top 10. Last one to do it was Eric Ebron in 2014(10th). Since him a TE has not come off the board until round 2! If you average it out over the last 10 years the first tight end comes off the board at  pick 30.

Any thoughts or opinion's that you take away from this info?

 

 

[panther4life]

7 minutes ago, IMakeSixFigures said:

By you 

The other one was based on needs. This one is base on value from historical data. 

 

[panther4life]

1 minute ago, IMakeSixFigures said:

Who should we take at 8 then

Go to the other thread you thought was so similar and you'll see my thought process.

Both positional value in this thread and Need in the other thread peg us right on the money to take Corey Davis at 8 or possibly Lattimore,Adams or Hooker. So my personal preference is Corey Davis if it's down to those 3.

If Garrett or Thomas somehow made it to 8 and we feel we got lucky vs them falling for legit reasons i'd gladly take either of them at 8. Lastly if Barnett is a guy they see as a special pass rusher then I will initially disagree but root like hell they were right and I was wrong. Same could be said for Allen if they think he can be a stellar 4-3 DE, that being said to my untrained eyes I'd day its too much of a risk to expect him to transition that well.

After time to reflect on this new information my personal preference at 8 looks like this.

1. Garrett

2. Thomas

3.Fournette

4. Davis

5. Adams

6.Lattimore

7. Howard

8. Hooker

 

[t96]

Do you try to draft elite franchise talent at a higher paid position and get him cheapish on the rookie deal and then have to pay him big or let him walk, or do you try to draft elite talent at lesser paid positions and keep them much easier past their rookie deal?

[TheSpecialJuan]

13 minutes ago, IMakeSixFigures said:

Without looking at anything, here's mine:

garrett

fournette

thomas

adams

lattimore

howard

 

barnett

mike williams

I completely agree with you. I have to think Garrett, Adams and Lattimore will most likely be gone by 8.

Fournette and Thomas might drop to us depending if a team like 49ers, Jags or Jets reach for a QB.

[panther4life]

49 minutes ago, thomas96 said:

Do you try to draft elite franchise talent at a higher paid position and get him cheapish on the rookie deal and then have to pay him big or let him walk, or do you try to draft elite talent at lesser paid positions and keep them much easier past their rookie deal?

Always take the best talent. Most GM's don't make it 5 years. If you can lock up the BPA on your board for 5 years and they fill an immediate need then it's a no brainer. If they are elite you'll want to retain them anyway. Especially inside the top 10. If you draft the right one, you'll value them the same way we do Cam and Luke. 

We had to break the bank in free agency to get Matt Kalil. That tells me we will never have enough to steal an elite player from another team in free agency as long as we are paying for our own good players. Bidding wars are nuts when shitty teams who have double to triple the cap space you do.

[ColumbusCounty]

Calling it now .... Solomon Thomas will still be on the board at pick 8. As will Hooker. 

And btw, one of the 7 in front of us WILL take a Qb. 

[TheSpecialJuan]

57 minutes ago, ColumbusCounty said:

Calling it now .... Solomon Thomas will still be on the board at pick 8. As will Hooker. 

And btw, one of the 7 in front of us WILL take a Qb. 

I could see that. Solomon Thomas would make me very happy.

[t96]

1 hour ago, panther4life said:

Always take the best talent. Most GM's don't make it 5 years. If you can lock up the BPA on your board for 5 years and they fill an immediate need then it's a no brainer. If they are elite you'll want to retain them anyway. Especially inside the top 10. If you draft the right one, you'll value them the same way we do Cam and Luke. 

We had to break the bank in free agency to get Matt Kalil. That tells me we will never have enough to steal an elite player from another team in free agency as long as we are paying for our own good players. Bidding wars are nuts when shitty teams who have double to triple the cap space you do.

Best talent isn't possible to define without first answering the question I posed. Of course much more goes into it than that though. 

[panther4life]

33 minutes ago, thomas96 said:

Best talent isn't possible to define without first answering the question I posed. Of course much more goes into it than that though. 

I meant take the higher price position over the lower price one. 

For instance if there's a an equally graded DE vs HB you take the DE, even though he may be harder to sign after his rookie deal. Just what I'd do anyway.