Football Outsiders Week 2 DVOA (Advanced "Power Rankings") - Panthers 5th In The League Overall; 1st In NFC South

[Saca312]

Football outsiders released their DVOA for week 2, and the Panthers make a surprise climb to the top 5. What's even more extraordinary is the fact FO considers us to be the #1 team of the NFC South so far. 

For those who don't know what DVOA is, here's a short explanation

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

Quote

THE ULTRA-SHORT VERSION:
DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
THE SHORT VERSION:
DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. 

And now for the week 2 DVOAs:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-2-dvoa-ratings

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through two weeks of 2017, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. 

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	TOTAL DAVE	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	BAL	74.5%	2	17.8%	2	2-0	2.9%	16	-70.8%	1	0.8%	15
2	KC	56.4%	4	12.6%	6	2-0	57.5%	1	2.1%	16	1.0%	14
3	PIT	51.9%	7	29.0%	1	2-0	26.9%	6	-20.0%	6	5.0%	8
4	DET	50.6%	8	11.4%	8	2-0	7.7%	13	-29.5%	4	13.3%	1
5	CAR	42.4%	5	9.4%	9	2-0	-8.2%	22	-46.4%	2	4.2%	11
6	TB	37.0%	16	-0.5%	17	1-0	8.0%	12	-23.0%	5	6.0%	5
7	OAK	36.9%	14	13.4%	4	2-0	48.6%	2	16.1%	27	4.4%	9
8	TEN	35.6%	15	6.0%	13	1-1	40.0%	3	8.8%	22	4.4%	10
9	ATL	29.2%	9	8.6%	11	2-0	36.2%	4	12.2%	23	5.1%	7
10	LARM	27.4%	1	7.3%	12	1-1	2.7%	17	-19.1%	7	5.7%	6
11	BUF	21.4%	3	-5.2%	20	1-1	-5.1%	20	-32.6%	3	-6.1%	26
12	DEN	18.6%	19	-1.6%	18	2-0	16.0%	9	-12.1%	9	-9.5%	28
13	LACH	10.2%	18	0.4%	16	0-2	25.8%	7	-5.4%	13	-20.9%	32
14	GB	7.4%	10	12.4%	7	1-1	12.1%	11	4.3%	19	-0.4%	18
15	WAS	3.2%	21	1.1%	15	1-1	-0.2%	18	-7.2%	12	-3.8%	23
16	PHI	0.0%	12	3.0%	14	1-1	3.8%	15	2.1%	16	-1.8%	21
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	TOTAL DAVE	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	SEA	-1.9%	23	12.9%	5	1-1	-10.9%	23	-9.2%	10	-0.1%	17
18	DAL	-5.9%	6	9.1%	10	1-1	-7.8%	21	8.1%	20	9.9%	3
19	MIN	-8.5%	13	-4.0%	19	1-1	13.3%	10	21.9%	28	0.1%	16
20	JAC	-9.6%	11	-10.2%	25	1-1	-4.1%	19	-5.3%	14	-10.8%	29
21	ARI	-20.5%	28	-7.8%	23	1-1	-24.9%	27	-13.7%	8	-9.3%	27
22	NE	-24.6%	24	16.3%	3	1-1	28.7%	5	49.6%	32	-3.7%	22
23	HOU	-25.3%	26	-13.0%	28	1-1	-25.6%	28	-4.7%	15	-4.4%	24
24	NO	-25.5%	22	-12.2%	27	0-2	20.2%	8	48.6%	31	2.9%	13
25	MIA	-28.7%	16	-9.5%	24	1-0	5.0%	14	36.6%	30	2.9%	12
26	CHI	-29.9%	20	-11.0%	26	0-2	-16.1%	24	12.2%	24	-1.7%	20
27	CIN	-39.7%	31	-7.4%	22	0-2	-60.0%	32	-8.0%	11	12.3%	2
28	SF	-47.5%	29	-20.9%	30	0-2	-50.8%	30	3.4%	18	6.6%	4
29	NYG	-53.0%	25	-5.4%	21	0-2	-23.2%	25	15.4%	26	-14.4%	31
30	NYJ	-60.4%	30	-27.0%	31	0-2	-24.4%	26	34.7%	29	-1.3%	19
31	CLE	-63.1%	27	-27.2%	32	0-2	-37.6%	29	13.8%	25	-11.7%	30
32	IND	-73.8%	32	-20.2%	29	0-2	-59.9%	31	8.4%	21	-5.5%	25

Thoughts?

[Saca312]

If you're wondering, they don't yet include "opponent strength" in their adjustment due to their lack of data on every team (If I'm not mistaken). Not enough data to fully support the strength/weakness of a certain team.

 

[PntherPryd]

Weighted to Defense

 

which I am totally ok with. 

[Marguide]

Good info, but I'm going blind trying to read that chart on my phone.

[Harbingers]

Tennessee higher than Atlanta. 

[ecu88]

I stated this once before but Baltimore has that feel. Look at their turnovers 8 int, 4 ff, 8 sacks in 2 games.

Baltimore D #1 then ours imo

[mikeholiday]

1 minute ago, ecu88 said:

I stated this once before but Baltimore has that feel. Look at their turnovers 8 int, 4 ff, 8 sacks in 2 games.

Baltimore D #1 then ours imo

One could argue they will regress to the mean somewhat. That pace is not really sustainable. 

[Saca312]

2 minutes ago, ecu88 said:

I stated this once before but Baltimore has that feel. Look at their turnovers 8 int, 4 ff, 8 sacks in 2 games.

Baltimore D #1 then ours imo

Well I mean they did play against the Bengals and Browns, both teams with far more questionable QBs and pieces than the 49ers and Bills.

[mikeholiday]

3 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Well I mean they did play against the Bengals and Browns, both teams with far more questionable QBs and pieces than the 49ers and Bills.

People need to chill with these small sample sizes. Remember last year when Wentz was supposedly the second coming of Marino. 

[Harbingers]

11 minutes ago, ecu88 said:

I stated this once before but Baltimore has that feel. Look at their turnovers 8 int, 4 ff, 8 sacks in 2 games.

Baltimore D #1 then ours imo

I would agree. But points always win.

[ecu88]

11 minutes ago, mikeholiday said:

One could argue they will regress to the mean somewhat. That pace is not really sustainable. 

Oh that is true but that D is really good.

[ecu88]

12 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Well I mean they did play against the Bengals and Browns, both teams with far more questionable QBs and pieces than the 49ers and Bills.

True but for right now they are a buzzsaw, very opportunistic.

[Saca312]

7 minutes ago, ecu88 said:

True but for right now they are a buzzsaw, very opportunistic.

Always expected them to be good. But I do think the Panthers challenge that spot pretty fast. 

[Mark S]

NE at 22 lol