Football Outsiders - Panthers Outplayed Eagles All Four Quarters + Norv Turner Is Amazing

[Grizz15E]

I am a big fan of FO and DVOA, but I was surprised when I read this article myself. I suspect that the teams were about even in the first 3 quarters, but the Panthers' 4th quarter was so good (among the best of anyone all year) that it skewed the final chart. 

The Panthers also led by a wide margin in expected points per the pro-football-reference.com box score, FWIW. 

The better team won. 

[Black&BlueBubba]

Great article.  The funny thing is how they point out how dynamic the offense is with both CMC and Samuel on the field.   Can someone send that to Ron please? I have been saying that all year.  

[-13 Amp-]

I remember years ago when a poster on the board would write fugin novels on DVOA and why it means that Cam sucked. Pantherspride or someshit....the threads were almost daily and they were so so long....

It just proved that no matter how reputable a metric can be, it can be used for the reverse argument just as easily

[Saca312]

 

I remember years ago when a poster on the board would write fugin novels on DVOA and why it means that Cam sucked. Pantherspride or someshit....the threads were almost daily and they were so so long....

It just proved that no matter how reputable a metric can be, it can be used for the reverse argument just as easily

DVOA for unit/team efficiency is reliable.

Attempting it for QB efficiency is largely suspect given how much variables affect such.

 

[PantherGuy]

On 10/24/2018 at 9:03 PM, Saca312 said:

Found a really good article on our win from last week. Talks about what we did, the DVOA, and basically how much of a genius Norv Turner actually is. 

I'll post a few important segments, but highly recommend reading it all.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2018/any-given-sunday-panthers-over-eagles

...

By the DVOA

DVOA	OFF	DEF	ST	TOT
CAR	38.7%	-2.4%	-0.8%	40.3%
PHI	-12.5%	20.4%	-5.7%	-38.6%
VOA	OFF	DEF	ST	TOT
CAR	38.9%	-8.3%	-0.8%	46.3%
PHI	-8.9%	24.4%	-5.7%	-39.0%

Yes, even though the Eagles had a 17-0 lead at one point, they were roundly outplayed by Carolina throughout the game. There are no typos in the above table.

Why the discrepancy between Carolina's huge advantage in DVOA and their tiny advantage on the scoreboard? DVOA saw a team that should have been scoring points all game finally getting it together in the fourth quarter. DVOA saw a team that averaged a yard more per play and had no turnovers to Philadelphia's three fumbles. DVOA saw a team that consistently moved into Eagles territory but was unable to finish those drives. Carolina reached Philadelphia territory three times before they scored their first point, punting on fourth-and-5 from the Philadelphia 44, on fourth-and-15 from the Philadelphia 31, and on fourth-and-20 from the Philadelphia 43. They punted a fourth time from the Carolina 42 on fourth-and-3. Howling winds and back-breaking third- and fourth-down penalties forced that conservatism.

...

The Carolina Panthers are Actually Fun

...

Finally freed from Mike Shula, the Panthers offense has taken some major leaps forward under Norv Turner. Yes, yes, the super old school, Air Coryell guy. That's the one who has created a diverse option and run-action game.

I mean, Taylor Moton didn't even find someone to block. It didn't even matter. The Panthers were 11th in rushing DVOA last year, and that comes with the asterisk of Cam Newton's usual 122 runs of positive value boosting things up. This year, the Panthers are up to a 14.3% rushing DVOA, third-best in the NFL.

Carolina's short-area game is sort of unfair when you look at the diversity of options it gives them underneath. Both Curtis Samuel and McCaffrey are dynamic players with the ball in open space. When they mesh together, with one of the greatest running quarterbacks of this generation, they create an unholy web of options that opposing linebackers and safeties have to carefully consider. McCaffrey's final catch of the game to set the Panthers up with goal-to-go fits that category. I don't know how a defense stops this kind of play out of the backfield:

You certainly can't expect many linebackers to beat McCaffrey outside, and throwing in the pick on top of things just makes it seems too easy.

Now I want you to keep in mind that the Panthers have done this despite upheaval along the offensive line. Starting left tackle Chris Clark was signed in September. Andrew Norwell fill-in Greg Van Roten had zero career snaps as an undrafted free agent before this year. Daryl Williams' MCL injury left the team scrambling to start Moton at tackle; Moton was a second-round pick, but one that was thought of by some scouts as an interior lineman. Trai Turner has also missed time this way, forcing Tyler Larsen into the starting lineup.

There are teams with that kind of offensive line situation -- like say, ones in New York or Jacksonville -- that completely fall apart as a rushing offense. Some of Carolina's success is good work by the scouting team to find a player like Van Roten. But some of it is also just understanding how to best get their running attack in to space.

The job that Turner has done so far should be an inspiration to a slew of other teams that have tools goofs at quarterback. If you're stuck with Blake Bortles or Josh Allen, but can pair him with this kind of short-area production, you can create a successful offense even without much in the way of receiving talent or quarterback accuracy.

I usually trust FO more than PFF (which I generally view as garbage), but IMO the eye test from the first 3Q was undeniable - they destroyed us. Don't care what advanced stats say.