A look back at preseason predictions

[Joe Bear]

On 12/31/2024 at 10:59 AM, kungfoodude said:

I would say XL should have been a 3rd rounder, IMO. High ceiling, scary low floor. That usually when those guys start getting pretty attractive.

Samuel had 26 targets in his first year and produced very little. Mingo was very similar to XL. 85 targets for 43 catches and 418 yards, 0 TD's. TMJ literally has had 116 targets in his entire NFL career. 

XL is probably Mingo+. I don't think his career will fall off a cliff the same way. however.

I'm not high on XL but he's already better than Mingo was or ever will be. He gets open and sometimes makes catches. Mingo couldn't do either.

As for predictions, I think I said 0-1 wins. Maybe 0-2 wins? So 4 wins is better. Sucks to lose all the close games at the end of the year but beating the Cardinals and knocking them out of the playoffs helped that.

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, Bear Hands said:

That's an apt comparison with Samuel given how we've tried to use XL.  His desired ceiling is some sort of amalgamation of DK & Deebo but it may take time to get consistent results.    

As a prospect, it was clear he is ideally an X, frame wise.  But he still needed route running refinement and to work better against zone.  And the lack of short area quickness led him to being more of a guy you trickle into that role and can use him in more gimmicky fashion where he's in motion and gaining speed pre-snap.  Funny thing is he caught on quicker with playing outside early on, but he's still stiff and awkward. 

He's just in need of way more development than you want to see at that age - that's why I personally pegged him in the 3rd.  I distinctly remember Brugler saying some teams had him as low as #70ish overall and a 3rd/4th rounder, but others had him as high as WR6.  We were obviously one of those all about him.  

To note, we've played XL 25% slot, 75% wide.      

On the flipside, Ladd had the flexibility to play outside but it's due to his top tier route running and separation ability.  But he's not the guy you isolate out there to play against man coverage.  He's played slot 70% and out wide 30% of his snaps this season.  And it's been a perfect blend.  This is close to AT's allocation 70/30.   

The guy I was a BIG fan of that the 49ers pounced on was Pearsall, mainly because he had similar strengths to Ladd, but was a bit more of a frame to play man out wide.  Some pegged him more slot, but funny enough, Shanahan has played him only 40% slot, 60% out wide.  He's been showing off now that he's getting folded in more.  

You want the position flexibility with all your receivers these days, which is why I don't see redundancy with AT.  We could've figured it out.  You simply get a field stretcher to pull the faster CBs away from AT.  

 

 

 

Good points. I was talking about Curtis Samuel, though.

[kungfoodude]

16 minutes ago, Joe Bear said:

I'm not high on XL but he's already better than Mingo was or ever will be. He gets open and sometimes makes catches. Mingo couldn't do either.

As for predictions, I think I said 0-1 wins. Maybe 0-2 wins? So 4 wins is better. Sucks to lose all the close games at the end of the year but beating the Cardinals and knocking them out of the playoffs helped that.

Honestly, their first seasons are statistically fairly similar. Less TD's for Mingo but far less drops. 7 in one season vs. 6 for a career. 

I agree that XL is much more capable than Mingo of creating separation and getting open. I do think he is definitely worse as a pass catcher than Mingo, which is quite the statement. Mingo's issue is although he gets targeted fairly often(or did) he is rarely even in position to attempt the catch. 

[Joe Bear]

51 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Honestly, their first seasons are statistically fairly similar. Less TD's for Mingo but far less drops. 7 in one season vs. 6 for a career. 

I agree that XL is much more capable than Mingo of creating separation and getting open. I do think he is definitely worse as a pass catcher than Mingo, which is quite the statement. Mingo's issue is although he gets targeted fairly often(or did) he is rarely even in position to attempt the catch. 

and then, Mingo was good about fumbling even if he caught it. XL's hands are not good but you can hope they'd improve. Mingo just couldn't get separation.

[kungfoodude]

21 minutes ago, Joe Bear said:

and then, Mingo was good about fumbling even if he caught it. XL's hands are not good but you can hope they'd improve. Mingo just couldn't get separation.

My biggest concern is that XL has more issues than just hands. He body catches, he mis-times jumps and he loses balls. These aren't rare enough events. 

I am just not convinced he is going to be able to fix all of that.

[Navy_football]

On 12/31/2024 at 10:15 AM, Jon Snow said:

I guess you missed the 2 deep shots to Theilen then or the one Moore dropped in the end zone. 

Or the deep ball against the Saints that the DB took from him. Or the possible game winning TD pass against the Eagles that he dropped. I remember another deep pass down the left sideline that he dropped as well - just can't remember the team. 

Look, I think XL is a rookie with the yips. He has to get out of his head and just play. It happens. But it's inaccurate to blame his issues on the QB. Bryce had to overcome his own issues early in his career as well. XL seems to have the work ethic to overcome and regain his confidence. 

Edited January 1, 2025 by Navy_football