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Mogi Doughnut

Jangler

By Jangler,
in Huddle Lounge

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Jangler Newbie

Jangler

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http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/18/local/la-me-earthquake-forecast-20100718

Seismologists call the possible pattern a Mogi doughnut. It's the outgrowth of a concept, developed in Japan, which holds that earthquakes sometimes occur in a circular pattern over decades —building up to one very large quake in the doughnut hole. Rundle and his colleagues believe that the recent quakes, combined with larger seismic events including the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge temblors, could be precursors to a far larger rupture.

They just don't know exactly when.

The idea of predicting earthquakes remains controversial and much debated among California's many seismologists. But as technology improves and the understanding of how earthquakes distribute energy grows, experts are gingerly offering improved "forecasts," some of which have been surprisingly prescient.

For example, Southern California was hit earlier this month by a 5.4 quake that struck in the mountains about 30 miles south of Palm Springs — several weeks after seismologists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and elsewhere warned that pressure was building in the San Jacinto fault zone, which is where the temblor occurred.

That forecast underscores new thinking by seismologists about how earthquakes occur.

In the past, experts paid less attention to how one fault was connected to another and how one earthquake could increase the chances of a quake on another fault. But now they believe that these connections are extremely important and that this year's temblors along the Mexican border and near Palm Springs seem to support the concept.

"Previously we would identify a fault, map it and name it," said Lisa Grant Ludwig, a UC Irvine earthquake expert. "What we've really got here is a network of faults. Maybe that's what we need to be thinking: more big-picture."

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Razzy Newbie

Razzy

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I hate fearmongering poo like this. It's the equivalent of saying "The big one is coming", but in more technical terms. Southern California will eventually be hit by a big earthquake, that is a fact. Predicting it is like predicting rain in Seattle.

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