Bryce's Achilles Heel Is Not What You Think It Is

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, fieryprophet said:

This "noodle arm" characterization just baffles me. There's way more involved in a successful downfield passing attack than simple air yards.

Let's take two stat-lines for throws of 40+ air yards (no YAC) from the last 3 seasons:

5/29 (17%) for 3 TDs and 2 INTs

1/9 (11%) for 1 TD

So with three times the number of attempts, you net +6% completion percentage, the same TD rate, and 2 arm punt INTs to boot. The first player is Mahomes, the second is Bryce. Clearly Bryce attempts these throws at a much lower rate, but his success rate is quite similar to one of the most talented downfield throwers of all time.

The takeaway isn't that Bryce is Mahomes-lite (if he was his usage rate for these would be much higher) but that these throws by their very nature are extremely difficult, very scheme-specific, and even an elite thrower can have wildly differing success rates season by season.

And before we get into the complaints of cherry-picking, this is far more substantial information than the various insinuations that Bryce struggles to even get the ball 20 yards downfield, much less 40+.

And the wildest part of this is that every time Mahomes threw a bomb over the last 3 season, 83% of the time the end result was failure, yet many Chiefs fans complain that he isn't taking even more shots downfield.

It baffles me anyone can watch Bryce play and not see that his arm is significantly below average for an NFL QB. He especially struggles when the pocket is muddy and he doesn't have ample room to step up and through.

[mrBdawg]

10 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

 lol

*bryce hits a receiver in stride 50 yards downfield for a touchdown with two safetys steps behind

Yeah that guy couldn’t even throw a hail Mary from the 50, I bet my arm is stronger than his lol

[strato]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It baffles me anyone can watch Bryce play and not see that his arm is significantly below average for an NFL QB. He especially struggles when the pocket is muddy and he doesn't have ample room to step up and through.

I see a whole lot of statistical analysis and not enough, for me, eyeball analysis. 
The stats I would be very interested in, but have no access to, would be radar gun readouts from a variety of places on the field, including some taken with the poor footwork, the good footwork, the big launch run up, the little three steps plant and throw, and measured from different areas of the field. Like, something representing his passing chart. 

Something else that seems beyond my ability to calculate is I have heard people say that balls have staying power so to speak. Where the velocity doesn’t decrease all that much as you get towards the destination and the opposite where it does seem to decelerate more suddenly, etc. 

 

[Shotgun]

3 minutes ago, mrBdawg said:

*bryce hits a receiver in stride 50 yards downfield for a touchdown with two safetys steps behind

Yeah that guy couldn’t even throw a hail Mary from the 50, I bet my arm is stronger than his lol

That was a nice 40 yard td and I would love to see more of those. The LOS was the 40. Back him up 10 more yards and he cant do it. Show me a clip if you got one I'm not aware of.  

[strato]

10 minutes ago, mrBdawg said:

*bryce hits a receiver in stride 50 yards downfield for a touchdown with two safetys steps behind

Yeah that guy couldn’t even throw a hail Mary from the 50, I bet my arm is stronger than his lol

You ever play golf? Have your average tee shot length but one day you just do everything right and boom? But you can’t do it consistently? It is hard. 
Or say you can break 80 pretty consistently and one day you just have that day where your putts fall, you’re in the fairway. On the green? 
But you can’t do it every day. 
To me he is sort of that guy. Weak with the consistency. Hits some high peaks, but it isn’t repeatable. 

Maybe it is a shitty analogy. 

Edited 8 hours ago by strato

[mrBdawg]

Just now, Shotgun said:

That was a nice 40 yard td and I would love to see more of those. The LOS was the 40. Back him up 10 more yards and he cant do it. Show me a clip if you got one I'm not aware of.  

Come on now. You saw the guy throw the ball from the 50 to the end zone

You know on Hail Marys you step up to the LOS and throw it from there. It’s the same throw. And he didn’t even really step into that one

Side note, I also would really love to see more of those instead of sideline deep shots that land out of bounds

[mrBdawg]

4 minutes ago, strato said:

You ever play golf? Have your average tee shot length but one day you just do everything right and boom? But you can’t do it consistently? It is hard. 
Or say you can break 80 pretty consistently and one day you just have that day where your putts fall, you’re in the fairway. On the green? 
But you can’t do it every day. 
To me he is sort of that guy. Weak with the consistency. Hits some high peaks, but it isn’t repeatable. 

Maybe it is a shitty analogy. 

Oh I totally agree. He’s wildly inconsistent. Much like my golf game.

But I think it’s safe to say he can consistently throw the ball from the 50 to the end zone. Driving deeper passes with accuracy, that’s a whole different conversation 

[Shotgun]

2 minutes ago, mrBdawg said:

Come on now. You saw the guy throw the ball from the 50 to the end zone

You know on Hail Marys you step up to the LOS and throw it from there. It’s the same throw. And he didn’t even really step into that one

Side note, I also would really love to see more of those instead of sideline deep shots that land out of bounds

 Like this?

https://youtu.be/XlOlR67c2Oc

[Shotgun]

4 minutes ago, mrBdawg said:

Oh I totally agree. He’s wildly inconsistent. Much like my golf game.

But I think it’s safe to say he can consistently throw the ball from the 50 to the end zone. Driving deeper passes with accuracy, that’s a whole different conversation 

I think everything has to be perfect for him to make that throw. For whatever reason his coaches wont let him attempt a hail mary.

[strato]

2 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

 Like this?

https://youtu.be/XlOlR67c2Oc

Not exactly lol but that was cool. Just under 70 yards aloft. Don’t tease me. 

[Shotgun]

Just now, strato said:

Not exactly lol but that was cool. Just under 70 yards aloft. Don’t tease me. 

That looks so alien after watching Young for 3 years. lol That was freakish though.

[strato]

3 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

That looks so alien after watching Young for 3 years. lol That was freakish though.

I have seen even longer ones pretty sure. But damn.

Man that’s why I call a Dalton start a breath of fresh air. 
Bryce’s game is so constricted. Closed off. 
I get football claustrophobia. 

Edited 8 hours ago by strato

[mrBdawg]

1 hour ago, Shotgun said:

I think everything has to be perfect for him to make that throw. For whatever reason his coaches wont let him attempt a hail mary.

You watched him throw the ball 50 air yards and it was perfectly in stride. He did get to step into the throw or crow hop into it. He had a defender closing the space.

But you doubt he can just heave it 50 yards to the end zone without perfect circumstances? That doesn’t make much sense.  I guarantee you Bryce can throw the ball ~60 yards.

Edited 7 hours ago by mrBdawg

[strato]

14 minutes ago, mrBdawg said:

You watched him throw the ball 50 air yards and it was perfectly in stride. He did get to step into the throw or crow hop into it. He had a defender closing the space.

But you doubt he can just heave it 50 yards to the end zone without perfect circumstances? That doesn’t make much sense.  I guarantee you Bryce can throw the ball ~60 yards.

Have you ever seen him throw it 60 legit yards? I would think he would need a nice stiff breeze at his back. 

Edited 7 hours ago by strato