Football Outsiders updated Panthers statistics

[PantherProwler]

scroll down a bit. it isn't at the very top

I did and it takes me to a similar stat to DVOA. GWP probability. That's what I get. Dude I've known about it for some time as well. I used it to determine our 4th quarter garbage time because it shows when winning probability reached 0 during previous games.

But I was looking for actual ypp efficiency. I guess you'll still have to do that manually if you want true defense/offense rankings.

[teeray]

I did and it takes me to a similar stat to DVOA. GWP probability. That's what I get.

Yeah I know. That is because the

...the biggest, most credible and best advanced statistics football site on the internet. They actually do happen to rank actual true total offense and defense efficiency(even turnover margin adjusted as well as schedule) and they do it weekly. This takes into consideration everything. Including schedule.

Doesn't use YPP.

[Marguide]

Mav, Teeray and Chef...you guys still having fun?

I assume we still suck largely due to D and ST. Personally, I blame the long-snapper.

I think I have a stat on that here somewhere...let me get back to you on that.

[Floppin]

So what you're telling me is that we lose because we score less points than the other team? Well fug me sideways.

[teeray]

Mav, Teeray and Chef...you guys still having fun?

I assume we still suck largely due to D and ST. Personally, I blame the long-snapper.

I think I have a stat on that here somewhere...let me get back to you on that.

*must spread rep around*

Her is an IOU. it is just as good as SWAG.

[Jangler]

So what you're telling me is that we lose because we score less points than the other team? Well fug me sideways.

just to be clear...will you be sideways or should I be sideways?

[PantherProwler]

Too bad it would have made life easier for everybody.

Total offense efficiency: 18.9

Total defense efficiency: 13.7

Turnover margin: -0.4

.4 * 3.8 = ~1.52.

Offense and defense efficiency at an even turnover margin

Defense 13.7 + 1.52 = 15.22 = 22nd

Offense: 18.9 +1.52 = 20.42 =30th.

What we are still missing from our schedule:

.5 additional takeaways(average NFL team gets 1.6. At even turnover margin we still only get 1.1)

.5*3.8 =1.9 ypp

Offense and defense efficiency rankings adjusted to league average 1.6 defensive takeaways.

Defense 15.22+1.9 = 17.12 7th

Offense 18.9-1.9 = 17. 0 20th

This would actually give us a +.5 turnover margin. So now if you rank them against your schedule, our defense remains roughly the same while our offense is right at average. That would have = winning record.

That's the first part. Then you have to figure out your strength of schedule for each side.

PS: And no, it's not so much that we score less points, but if you do the above step you will realize why. Our schedule of offenses at the time we played them was brutal which is one of the main reasons a team ends up with a winning schedule. If you adjust for strength of schedule you will notice both our offense and defense go up in actual rankings. Our offense becomes about average and our defense will rank in the the top 10.

[Floppin]

just to be clear...will you be sideways or should I be sideways?

How strong are your arms?

[Floppin]

Too bad it would have made life easier for everybody.

Total offense efficiency: 18.9

Total defense efficiency: 13.7

Turnover margin: -0.4

.4 * 3.8 = ~1.52.

Offense and defense efficiency at an even turnover margin

Defense 13.7 + 1.52 = 5.22 = 22nd

Offense: 18.9 +1.52 = 20.42 =30th.

That's the first part. Then you have to figure out your strength of schedule for each side.

PS: And no, it's not so much that we score less points, but if you do the above step you will realize why. Our schedule of offenses at the time we played them was brutal which is one of the main reasons a team ends up with a winning schedule. If you adjust for strength of schedule you will notice both our offense and defense go up in actual rankings. Our offense becomes about average and our defense will rank in the the top 10.

So your telling me that we don't lose because we score less points? Well fug me sideways.

[mav1234]

floppin was asking for it, honest officers

[PantherProwler]

So your telling me that we don't lose because we score less points? Well fug me sideways.

Of course we lose because we score less points.

What I'm telling you is our defense would be ranked 7th in defensive scoring efficiency and offense 20th in total offense scoring efficiency if we had a good enough schedule where we got a league average 1.6 takeaways from our schedule.

When you also factor in the fact we played some of the best offenses in the league, and factor in strength of schedule it is primarily responsible for our lack of takeaways as well as our losing record. We're losing primarily because of schedule. The biggest problem is our offense.

But if we didn't face the top 3 of the top 10 offenses in the league we'd have an average ranked offense in efficiency, a +.5 turnover margin and likely a 5-4 record and a top 10 raned defense in points allowed. Problem is when you face Green Bay, Saints and Chicago, it matters very little if you have a top defense. What determines winning is if you have a more efficient offense.

And we didn't. But if we didn't have such a pooty schedule, we'd be alright.

[Floppin]

Is top 3 of the top 10 offenses different than top 3 of all 32 teams? So if we had played the middle 5 of the lower 7 offenses would that speculative +.5 turnover ratio equal out to more or less even around about a likely hereabout 1.2 turnover ratio?

[Argus Plexus]

What is Rivera's nickname?

[PantherProwler]

Is top 3 of the top 10 offenses different than top 3 of all 32 teams? So if we had played the middle 5 of the lower 7 offenses would that speculative +.5 turnover ratio equal out to more or less even around about a likely hereabout 1.2 turnover ratio?

Actually if you're going to be correct a turnover at midfield is worth 3.8 points.

In the red-zone, end-zone or a pick 6 they're worth about 7 so you figure it out.