NFL Draft bust rates by position

[MHS831]

http://www.vincentvalour.com/nfl-draft-history-1st-round-positional-hitbust-rate-defense/html

Interpret this how you may, but remember, you have not researched the topic, they have. Not saying it was reliable or valid, but ususally a thread like this solicits ignorant comments from our omnipotent posters. I take it with a grain of salt, but find it to be interesting.

Defensive Tackles have a 37% hit rate in the first round of the NFL draft.

Defensive Tackles are the second worst position in the NFL draft first round. Many players end up getting dominated by superior NFL offensive lineman. Another reason DTs bust is a lot of them eat their way out of the league with poor work ethics. Teams taking a Defensive tackle in the NFL Draft watch out! (MHS831: There are a lot of question marks at DT--buyer beware)

Linebackers hit at an astonishing 69% in the first round of the NFL draft.

In this data set 3-4 OLB were classified with the linebackers. This is one of the best positions to draft in the first round of the NFL draft. The reason is there is low positional value with most linebackers, meaning only the best of the best will be drafted in the first round. Linebackers are also many times the leader of a college squad, giving them great character for the NFL. Teams taking a linebacker in the first round of the NFL draft will be pleased.

Cornerbacks hit at a fantastic rate of 69% in the first round of the NFL draft.

Oddly enough cornerbacks tend to struggle in their rookie years. Many times in the NFL draft first round, corners are taken high because of their elite athleticism and high skill. Both of which are mandatory to play the position. Teams taking a corner in the NFL draft first round should rejoice.

Defensive Ends have a 48% hit rate in the first round of the NFl draft.

In this data set defensive ends were classified as 3-4 ends, and 4-3 ends only. Outside linebackers in the 3-4 were counted as linebackers. The position of highest value on defense turned in pretty close to a 50/50 hit rate among first rounders of the NFL draft. There can be various reasons for this split. One is some defensive ends have a hard time transitioning from the 4-3 end to a 3-4 end scheme, likewise a player may be built to play as a 3-4 OLB but is forced to play the traditional 4-3 end. Also like other positions in college defensive ends may rely to much on their athleticism, and may not develop specific moves to rush the quarterback. In general many players will have what it takes to play in the NFL and some wont. Taking a Defensive End in the NFL Draft is well worth the risk.

[rayzor]

this should not be taken into serious consideration by any team.

[Panthro]

3-4 LBs are not 4-3 LB's

[Panther's #1 Fan]

Good thread I've heard the ESPN draft analyst talk about this before definately don't want a dt in the first round with this crop of lineman if there was a suh type player of course, but none of these dts are in his class as far as college production and a solid combine, and upside Brokers has one year of film to look at definately too raw and risky to take at #9 Poe had an amazing combine but not so great game film I like Fletcher Cox the most but at #9 not so much. Lb, CB, or ot with our #9 pick please

[Kurb]

1% of the OPs threads are hits.

[mmmbeans]

are DT bust rates lower in subsequent rounds or should we just switch to a scheme that doesn't utilize DTs so we can draft higher hit players? LB and corners only?

:/

[Ivan The Awesome]

I read 5% of this post.

[MHS831]

You guys are great at supporting opposing opinions.

[MHS831]

I read 5% of this post.

I would like to thank HOOKED ON PHONICS for this progress!:D

[MHS831]

this should not be taken into serious consideration by any team.

I do not think it was written for the teams. The link is provided if you want to disprove thier research. Just threw it out there for debate.

[Kurb]

What exactly is the metric for being a "hit"

[Panthro]

What about Kate Upton....good bust?

[rayzor]

I do not think it was written for the teams. The link is provided if you want to disprove thier research. Just threw it out there for debate.

i've seen it. they aren't the first to do this. crap...i've done it myself in the past.

too many problems with this, though. biggest one is who are the ones drafting busts? is it more of a team culture that they just suck at drafting players in general? like the lions for years kept on drafting WRs early and they kept sucking. that skews the average.

i look at research like this and just give a shrug. i think you can learn from it but only if that learning involves dealing with why those picks failed and not throwing around a "it failed because it was a DT".

there are reasons that these players busted that goes way beyond just a simple "they were just DTs" or whatever. some teams just have crappy player evals and/or don't know how to develop players.

[Kurb]

Of the Panthers Front Office during the past 9 years all their first round picks have been Hits.

This is easy!