Panthers 1st down stats

[MattB]

Really interesting article on the discrepancy between the Panthers great 1st down numbers and the struggles on 3rd down. Perhaps this goes back to what Rivera was saying about Cam needing to check the ball down more.

The Panthers have three plays over 35 yards (66, 51, and 40) but they also have two losses of -12 yards and -9 yards. They have made 45 percent of needed yardage on 48 percent of first downs, which is third in the NFL behind San Francisco and New England. Cam Newton is completing 71 percent of his passes on first down, 56 percent on second down, and 41 percent on third or fourth down.

Perhaps part of the problem is that the Panthers have forgotten that they employ running backs on third down. Panthers running backs have only three carries on third down all season -- two on third-and-1, and one on third-and-2. They have thrown only four passes to running backs on third down (NFL average is seven, and that includes the six teams with one fewer game played.)

http://www.footballo...ffensive-splits

[TruCatzFan]

Imagine that... We suck on 3rd downs... We'd have a better 3rd down conversion rate if we just punted on 3rd downs to save us the embarrassment.

Hopefully, our coaches are as smart as these writers are and have identified this discrepancy and rectified the issue.

I'm just waiting for Sunday to roll around so we can see if its really over or not.

[iamhubby1]

If you don't stay on schedule on first and second down, you put yourself behind. Defenses can attack on those third and longs. Which just makes it that much tougher to convert.

Personally, I think Chud is outsmarting himself on first and seccond downs. Trying to be cute and all trickery. Because he trusts Cam to convert those third downs. Problem is, we are always in third and long. Hard to confuse the D when you are behind the eight ball.

IMO, if Chud would use first and second downs to actually move the ball, the third downs would be much easier to convert. And we could actually dictate to the D.

[TruCatzFan]

I expect our offense to dictate this Sunday... However, my expectations have been know to be over the top 'round these parts.

[YoungPanthers89]

Good ole read option

[Marguide]

IMO, if Chud would use first and second downs to actually move the ball, the third downs would be much easier to convert. And we could actually dictate to the D.

Did you read the excerpt? We are the 3rd best in the league on 1st down.

[mwright350]

IMO, if Chud would use first and second downs to actually move the ball, the third downs would be much easier to convert. And we could actually dictate to the D.

You need to remove first down from that equation. We average 7.2 yards per play on first down.

Play selection after first down has been abysmal - that's where we need to be properly utilizing our personnel.

[UNCrules2187]

If you don't stay on schedule on first and second down, you put yourself behind. Defenses can attack on those third and longs. Which just makes it that much tougher to convert.

Personally, I think Chud is outsmarting himself on first and seccond downs. Trying to be cute and all trickery. Because he trusts Cam to convert those third downs. Problem is, we are always in third and long. Hard to confuse the D when you are behind the eight ball.

IMO, if Chud would use first and second downs to actually move the ball, the third downs would be much easier to convert. And we could actually dictate to the D.

Clearly you didn't read the OP. It explicitly states we do our best work on first down (average 7.28 yards per play on 1st down, best in the league) and our second and third downs are atrocious.

[Argus Plexus]

O-Line can't block so when the house comes it's a sack instantly. Cam doesn't check down. Chud has awful playcalling.

[UNCrules2187]

I didn't want to create a brand new thread for this, and since FO stuff is based on advanced stats, I thought it made sense here.

According to a statistical model, the Panthers are the 6th best team in the league.

lol wut?

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/10/team-efficiency-rankings-week-7.html

[iamhubby1]

I guess that does put a crimp in my theory.

So... if we are so good on first down. Why are we not more successful?

Because we cannot seem to stop shooting ourselves in the foot. A bad play call, a penalty, bad pass, dropped pass, or any mistake under the sun. And always at the worst posible time.

So-so play calling and the execution of those plays has been the main problem. Slap Chud and all should be well.

[Marguide]

I didn't want to create a brand new thread for this, and since FO stuff is based on advanced stats, I thought it made sense here.

According to a statistical model, the Panthers are the 6th best team in the league.

lol wut?

http://www.advancedn...ngs-week-7.html

Hmmmm. So what does that tell us...perhaps that we've just played really good competition and are about to breakout, or we are winning much less than you would expect. To me, the latter scenario speaks more to coaching than talent.