Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Coaches are too conservative (Not Riverboat!)

Happy Panther

By Happy Panther,
in Carolina Panthers

Recommended Posts

Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

Posted
Posted

http://regressing.deadspin.com/charts-just-how-wimpy-are-nfl-coaches-on-fourth-down-c-1475806291

 

ku-xlarge.png

 

The Bot uses game data going back to 2000 to tell you whether you should punt, kick a field goal, or go for it on fourth down, based on your position on the field and the yards to first down. For most of the game (the first three quarters or so), its suggestions are based on maximizing expected points, but with around 10 minutes remaining in the fourth, it switches over to maximize winning percentage. The charts themselves are interactive and the article has a great explanation of Burke's "expected points" formula, so you should go check it out.
There's no mention of Riverboat Ron, though, whose Panthers are eight-for-eight on fourth down during their eight game win streak, with six of the seven drives resulting in touchdowns. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dos poptarts Newbie

dos poptarts

Posted
Posted

I remember looking at this in the middle of the season. I think 4th down bot is too agressive sometimes. But overall I agree. Not sure I understand how 4th and 3 and the 8 yard line is a go for it...but 4th and 3 at the 15 yard line is punt. (I guess the oppo starting position after the punt is taken into consideration)

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
d-dave Grand Master

d-dave

Posted
Posted

Didn't Ron start to be more aggressive than the bot?  This was brought up earlier this season, and I thought that Ron was more aggressive in several instances versus the bot.

 

Either way, I hope we have the ability to be as aggressive for 2014.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I remember looking at this in the middle of the season. I think 4th down bot is too agressive sometimes. But overall I agree. Not sure I understand how 4th and 3 and the 8 yard line is a go for it...but 4th and 3 at the 15 yard line is punt. (I guess the oppo starting position after the punt is taken into consideration)

 

The data is empirical meaning the bot looks at when teams actually went for it on 4th and 3 from the 8. Which is probably like once since 2000. 

 

Basically there is little or no data in some of those scenarios. Not sure how the bot is getting to some of the results.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
updownsigma Rookie

updownsigma

Posted
Posted

The data is empirical meaning the bot looks at when teams actually went for it on 4th and 3 from the 8. Which is probably like once since 2000. 

 

Basically there is little or no data in some of those scenarios. Not sure how the bot is getting to some of the results.

 

It might use combined data from similar situations, like I've seen Barnwell on Grantland say teams overall have roughly a 50% chance of gaining at least 2 yards, regardless of field position. So maybe its the expected point value of converting a first down from the 8 and the probability of getting 3 yards?

 

Not sure exactly how that would work, but it would have to be better look at the few times a team has gone for it from 4th and 3 from the 8, not only because of the small sample size that you pointed out, but also I'm sure whatever team did go for it on 4th and 3 from the 8 did it because they were down with little time left, which also biases things. For example, they're more likely to call a run than a pass, if the conversion fails the team that gets the ball would probably just kneel instead of kicking a FG, meaning the expected points aren't as "bad" as it might be going for it in a normal game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • cranky
      2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

      By cranky · Posted

      It all sounds great. The only unknowns are injuries and how they will need to be addressed. Horn has a history as does the newly added Jaelen Phillips and Cooker has yet to play an entire season as well. And then there are the Ikey's - totally unexpecteded injuries that put a major wrench in your plans. I do think its a great plan though.
    • LinvilleGorge
      2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

      By LinvilleGorge · Posted

      If we pay Bryce like a franchise QB we're completely and utterly buttfuged.
    • MHS831
      2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

      By MHS831 · Posted

      In my view, the realistic expectation for this team to compete will start 2027.  At that time, I think we could be looking at the following (this is HIGHLY speculative):   QB:  You know, Bryce.  I am not a fan, but they don't ask me.  But there is reason for hope--and here it is.  Bryce will be entering his prime.  Since we are likely to pay him, there will be changes that I include throughout this exercise--I realistically speculate on what they are going to do with Bryce and then I realistically speculate on what means in terms of the cap and other positions. Bryce HAS IMPROVED.  The idea is that if you give him more weapons and protection, that will continue.  His career:   At this rate, if his growth continues, by 2027 we should expect nearly 30 TDs and about 12 Interceptions and a Rating of about 98.  His completion percentage should settle at 65-66% or so.  If that happens, you can win with it. The following stats demonstrate how the Panthers will be able to afford it (and re-sign Ickey) My guess is they will require about $60m per year. This is why rookies who can play are important.  It also helps us see the blueprint.  You may disagree, but this is the cruel realities of the salary cap. Robert Hunt:  Cut post June 1 and save $19m.  Who do you replace him with?  Ickey. Tershawn Wharton:  Cutting him saves nearly $15m.  We should all hope to see Aaron Hall (UDFA) make the roster and play well.  Regardless, this is a position we would likely have to address in the next draft. Trevin Moehrig:  Cutting Moehrig as the starting SS saves this team $16.5m.   Ransom will be on year 3 of a cheap rookie deal and should be more than ready to take the reins.  their styles are similar.  Furthermore, FS Wheatley (R, 4th round) will be starting. Taylor Moton:  So much depends on his knee, but I have an idea that he can play another 3 years.  extending him could save the team about $5m per year.  Cutting him outright would save the team about $21m. In the most drastic situation, we have to cut Moton and the other three players mentioned.   We would need (in all likelihood) a starting DT and RT.  It is possible that the DE would be addressed, but Wharton's production (so far) could be equaled by a rookie.  Look for a cut free agent and a 2027 draft pick here.  If you cut Moton, you save $21m, and that would be the only big hole to fill.  Having Ickey at RG gives you some depth at T, and Ickey could be the guy.  T could be pick in the 2027 draft (first round), fwiw.  It saves you $21m while costing you $5m, for example. We get younger, creating a core of Freeling, Hecht, and the RT first rounder in 2027) along with Ekownu (second contract in the $15m range, and Lewis, whose contract would be in the $16m range if not extended.)  The OL cuts (Hunt, Moton) would save $40m.  The OL would get younger and still solid with veterans at G.   By cutting Wharton (no brainer if his play stays the same) and Moehrig (good player--but we have Ransom on a rookie contract who would not be that much of a drop off--if any) in addition to Hunt and Moton, we would save over $70m in cap room. We would be able to give Bryce bag  and we would have enough to re-sign Ickey (if the knee is not too risky) to a Guard contract (probably at a discount, coming off that injury).  Furthermore, we could add a RT in the draft (or a RG if Ickey moves to RT) and that would be the only large hole to fill. Correct my logic if you see issues-- On defense, in addition to the aforementioned, Scott ($2m contract) is out, replaced by a 4th round rookie contract. CB Jackson's contract ($7.8m) expires and he is (possibly) replaced by a rookie contract.  At Edge, patrick Jones II's $10m contract expires and he is likely a reserve, and his role is absorbed by Phillips, Scourton, Princely, and possible an UDFA like Isaiah Smith or a 2027 draft pick.   These productive developmental players over the past 2 drafts will pay huge dividends.  On paper, I see the team getting much younger and possibly better while cutting nearly $100m and reallocating that money to get more production.          
×
×
  • Create New...