Icege

I've got him at #7 ahead of Purdy + Strong in my preliminary rankings. Excited to see if he moves up ahead of Glass and Ridder to sneak into my top-5 as I learn and see more.

If we're talking strictly about why they have him in their rankings where they do, it's for reasons that I've already stated. There are qualities that appeal to them more than other qualities that appeal more to me. Besides, there are a LOT of professional evaluators (with the teams or the media) and they've all got different rankings. Howell's evaluation is no different. Just look at how the different media entities have him ranked in terms of this year's QBs: 1st: PFF 3rd: Brugler 4th: ESPN 5th: Mel Kiper, Todd McShay I'm trying to understand the purpose of your line of questioning. What exactly is the point that you're trying to make or the answer that you're trying to get?

Ridder and Pickett's arm talent give me a lot of pause. I can see them operating in a West Coast offense that isn't asked to stretch the field vertically, but we've already seen how that gameplan works when it's the only one that you have in the NFL. I haven't gotten to watch any of Zappe yet, but am excited to see exactly how he put up the numbers that he did. I'm especially eager to see if it'll lead to any possible gems that he had on the offense with him.

I think that they're watching a lot more film than I do, for sure. As far as how they leverage stats though, I don't know. I have my method (stats first, games later) because it helps me with identifying what games + situations to watch when I get the time to do so. All I can do is cite the data itself and provide my interpretation of it (as well as what I've seen from watching the actual games when able). But I also don't think a Huddler that says that Howell is, "a poor man's Trubisky," has a clue as to what they're talking about.

"I'm Reggie, Mr Burnett."

If we sign Armstead away from the Saints, trade back, and use those picks to draft Tyler Linderbaum and a QB I am getting somebody pregnant.

To be honest, I think that there are just certain things that people tend to look for when evaluating anything in life, QBs not being an exception. Some might focus on physical assets, others might focus on intangibles, etc. I like to look at what a team's needs are based on their situation. Then I look first at general stats for prospects before drilling down to advanced stats to see if I can get a "blueprint" for what to expect when I watch them play. I'm also looking at their entire career and game logs because I want to find possible trends and concerns to explore. Did their numbers drop due to losing NFL-bound teammates that weren't replaced? Was their one hit wonder year due to a new OC and strong recruiting class? Was there a nagging injury that caused their Y/A to tank for 3 straight games? Their OL allowed 9 sacks in their worst game, is that why they threw the most picks they had all year then? That's me though. I like to DEEP DIVE on stuff to see if it can help me predict what happens next (or, more often, understand why something else happened). Somebody else might prefer Kenny Pickett due to his prolific senior year, Desmond Ridder due to having the more prolific career, and/or Bailey Zappe for putting up those video game numbers. From the numbers (I've still got to watch Ridder + Zappe's games), I think that it's abundantly clear that Howell is the better prospect.

This. This. This. Last season basically said that Rhule believed he could win now and then with what he assembled. Make him stick to his guns, blow this bih up afterwards, and then go get somebody who's excited to work with a metric fug ton of cap space at their disposal.

I was looking at Spotrac. I think OTC is wrong on that one due to Daley being in the final year of his rookie deal. 6th round guys get just shy of $1M in their final year.

I was gonna say... the numbers, circumstances, and play on the field couldn't make that comparison look more lazy and uninformed. Two completely different players and evaluations.

Dennis Daley is due $996,838 with a dead cap number of $31,838 and Sam Franklin's dead cap is $15k. Not much of a difference for Franklin but def a pretty big discrepancy for Daley.

Unfortunately, I think the only player on that list that won't return to the team next year is AJ. Hopefully the ones that started won't again at least.

ngl, the "big school bias" question was a little off putting. Most lists don't even have HBCUs and I've got Aqeel ranked at #7 ahead of Carson Strong who most people are including in that list of top 5/6 QBs ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm missing a few folks tbh. Skylar Thompson out of Kansas State declared for the draft on Twitter about an hour ago. Several other Srs are opting to return to school or enter the transfer portal. Still waiting to hear if Cole Kelley or Zerrick Cooper are going to declare. The big school QBs didn't so much get there because of their competition but for how they played against stronger competition (while also trying to understand what went on before getting to watch the actual game to see if the eyes match the numbers). I also try to look at common opponents as well as head-to-head match-ups if at all possible. But yea, if I were just going for competition I'd have gone with Corral over Willis (which, btw, was actually the call that I almost made but Willis' arm talent helped win me over for better or worse).

Sonuvabitch. I completely forgot about Anthony Brown T_T

Still got a metric fug ton of snaps to watch, but after spending most of the downtime from getting my booster by stats diving and numbers crunching I've finally got a preliminary top-15 for this year's QB prospects: 1. Malik Willis (Liberty) 2. Matt Corral (Ole Miss) 3. Sam Howell (North Carolina) 4. Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh) 5. Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati) 6. Bailey Zappe (Western Kentucky) 7. Aqeel Glass (Alabama A&M) 8. Kaleb Eleby (Western Michigan) 9. Carson Strong (Nevada) 10. Brock Purdy (Iowa State) 11. EJ Perry (Brown) 12. Dustin Crum (Kent State) 13. Jawon Pass (Praire View A&M) 14. Jack Coan (Notre Dame) 15. Dorian Thompson-Robinson (UCLA) Solid year to grab a young guy as QB2 to see if they'll develop if you're a team that's already got a starter. Not so much if you're looking somebody that's as close to a sure thing that you can get.

He also lost his top weapons to the 2021 NFL Draft: 2nd Round: Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos 3rd Round: Dyami Brown, WR, Washington Football Team 4th Round: Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets 6th Round: Dazz Newsome, WR, Chicago Bears To be honest, I expected his numbers to take a dip considering he lost his WR1, WR2, RB1, and RB2 (and all are producing in their rookie seasons as pros). The fact that, while they did drop, he still seemed to consistently perform speaks highly for him.

Schedule for the HBCU Combine starting today! (on-field workouts tomorrow) Still trying to run down how it's being aired, but will provide a link if able when found Schedule (Tentative) Friday, January 28 AM: Players arrive Administration (Registration/Measurables/Medicals/Drug Testing) Evening Program Welcome Meeting Mentoring Club Interviews Saturday, January 29 On-Field Workouts Club Interviews/Departures Sunday, January 30 Departures

Legit surprised. I assumed that Rhule was just going to promote his ST coach from Baylor that's the assistant now to full-time ST coach.

Another comparison: both played a ranked Wake Forest in 2021. Pickett: 20/33 (60.6%) for 253yds, 2 TDs, 7.7 Y/A, 6 rushing attempts for 20yds (3.3avg), 1 rushing TD, 1 fumble Howell: 16/26 (61.5%) for 216yds, 1 TD, 8.3 Y/A, 21 rushing attempts for 104yds (5.0avg), 2 rushing TDs, 0 fumbles Howell had the higher completion percentage, more total yards, equal total touchdowns, better rushing average, higher Y/A, and less fumbles. I haven't gotten to watch as many of Howell's games as I have Pickett (1v4), but I'm already leaning towards Howell being the better prospect. Not saying that either are worth #6, franchise guys, or even sure fire busts. Just my own personal ranking(s) explained.

@ShockerGot back to the desktop and was curious about Howell's numbers vs. top-25 opponents He's 5-8 vs. top-25 opponents, 2-6 vs. those same opponents that were still ranked at the end of the season (same as Pickett). In those 2-6 games, he's 140/220 (63.6%) for 1812 yards, 12 TDs, 4 INTs, 8.3 Y/A, 109 rushing attempts for 358 yards (3.3avg), 2 rushing TDs, and 1 fumble. With the same record under the same parameters, Sam Howell has a slightly higher completion percentage (63.6v50), more passing yards (1923v1368), triple the passing TDs (12v4), half the INTs (4v8), higher Y/A (+2.8), almost five times the rushing yards (and average rushing yards) (358v85), the same amount of TDs (2), and a fourth of the fumbles (1v4). Even if you add those two 2021 games for Pickett, , Howell still has the better completion percentage, more passing TDs (12v8), half the INTs (4v8), higher Y/A (+2.3), almost triple the rushing yards (and rushing average) (358v120), and a fifth of the fumbles (1v5).

I've almost finished my Pickett evaluation and am working on Howell next followed by Willis, Ridder, Corral, and Strong in that order. Part of me really wants to check Brock Purdy out as well.

AY/A = Air Yards / Average Y/A = Yards / Average AY/A is basically the average distance their passes travel through the air. If a player has a very high Y/A vs. a very low AY/A then they are likely benefitting from playmaker more than actually being the playmaker themselves. There is a whole thread where Pickett's hand size was discussed. Not at the desktop atm, otherwise I'd link it for you to save you the time searching. I didn't take his stat line from his 10 worst games. I took his stat line from the 10 games he played in college where his opponents were ranked not just when they played but at the end of the year itself. That's isolating his games against top opponents, not cherry picking. This has been a calm exchange so far, so let's keep it that way rather than tossing accusations instead of addressing the argument.

You're looking at average air yards there, not average yards. His AY/A was 9.7, but his Y/A was 8.7. He definitely looked deeper this year, especially considering that his AY/A were 7.3, 6.3, 6.3, 6.8 prior to the 9.7 jump. The Herbert stat you looked at for 8.1 is actually 9.0 when comparing the same stat. Herbert's numbers are consistently higher than Pickett's despite Herbert playing in a system where he didn't often push the ball deep downfield. The hand size isn't an advanced metric, but it is another ding against him. The hand size concern correlates to his propensity to fumble, which he averaged once every other game. During the same time span in the pros, Russell Wilson averaged a fumble once every four games (and he's got 10.25" hands). This is a much different issue than arm length, which can be compensated for with quick feet. Some more metrics, basic or advanced, that hurt him: While he's 13-10 vs. top-25 opponents in-season, he's only 3-7 against teams that remained ranked at the end of the season His combined stat line from those 10 games is: 183/302 (60.6%) for 1,923yds, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 6.0 Y/A; 92 rushing attempts for 120 yards (1.1yd avg), 3 rushing TDs, 5 fumbles. That averages out to a really bad stat line on a per game basis. Before 2021, he was 2-6 with the following stat line: 138/230 (60%) for 1,368yds, 4 TDs, 8 INTs, 5.5 Y/A, 79 rushing attempts for 85yds (0.6avg), 2 rushing TDs, 4 fumbles

A/Y especially stood out (7.3yds career) as it showed he was looking short more often than not. Hand size is a concern (8.25"). He's essentially a one year wonder at the position when looking at his stats. Watching him play though, you see him taking his shots deep, but his WRs often have to slow down (or even turn around) for the ball when he's going deep. The ball doesn't leap out of his hand either. Very much a touch passer from what it looks, but watching some of his senior year games he was most definitely looking deeper (also seen by his 2021 8.7 A/Y). His TD:INT ratio was also fairly suspect. He more or less exploded during his senior year and that's going to be a huge concern for evaluators.