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AlphabetsEnd

HUDDLER
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Everything posted by AlphabetsEnd

  1. Rewatched the game and Blackshear looks better even than he did live. It's night and day from the returns in game 1-4. SF does have a suspect special teams, though.
  2. Have any players spoken up yet? Or, is this just staff and operations people.
  3. With the team as it is now, but a different offensive coordinator, it's a 4-1 team. The QB is not the issue (rewatch game film in ALL22). A new defensive coordinator that stops making man players play soft zone maybe puts the SF game into question and get the second half defense to stop blowing leads or giving up the fourth quarter comebacks could push this team to 5-0. Next year, draft a QB, but pay a veteran to allow a QB to develop. A later first QB with good development is a better bet than a top 10 going to a team they will have to start in a poo show.
  4. Speaking as a former Cleveland Brown's fan, not sure that tanking works very reliably. Better to build a good culture, build a good roster and develop a 1-3 level QB in a good situation. Top 10 QB picks go to shitty teams and that stunts development. Better to get a QB into a good situation.
  5. I'd let Baker/Sam/PJ/Matt call the offense before McAdoo at this point. CMC and Mayfield by committee is my top vote - whenever CMC doesn't want the ball, Mayfield can find DJ. The 2minute offense is the only thing that's worked, so go with that for all 60 minutes.
  6. I don't believe in tanking, but if you tank, this is probably the route to go.
  7. Having watched so much game film this season, the OC is the biggest problem. He's holding back established players, from CMC, to Moore, to yes, even "average" Mayfield. Everyone is being used against their strengths. Unless you're hoping for tanking, McAdoo needs to be stripped of at least playcalling, if not outright replaced.
  8. Oh, sure, PI is going on, but it does get called, and seems to not be getting called to help the Panther's receivers. Panther's have had a few crucial, game changing PI's called against the secondary, CJ has had at least 2. But I can't think of a single one that really helped Carolina in the same way. But again, could be bias. WR separation is a byproduct of a few things, but poorly designed routes from McAdoo are not helping. There also is clear disconnection between WR and QB in route depth. I think we see a lot of overthrows and assume Mayfield is missing (which he does sometimes, QBs miss) but those throws are often landing near the sticks or a different spot. If the QB/WR are on the wrong page all the time, that's a coaching failure to fix. If that's happening (which it seems like a lot) it's likely separation is also being harder to pull off because of lack of coaching strong, hard route running and decision making.
  9. I rewatched the game on NFL+ condensed and noticed that on the almost-touchdown pass to Robbie that Ward is holding his left arm with both hands before the ball arrives and he turns his head. I watched the play a few times, and it looks like PI to me, and hindered Robbie's ability to separate and make the play. No call was made, and even without the catch, it's a goal line situation and it changes the game's momentum, The PI call against Carolina (CJ Henderson) was perhaps 'technically' interference, but it was a pretty soft. It always seems that the PI calls go against the Panthers and calls in favor don't seem to materialize. But this could be bias easily. For my part, I could only recall one PI call given to a Carolina receiver, but perhaps there are others I've forgotten. Has anyone else noticed this? Or, have concrete stats on it assuage my feeling that a struggling offense is not getting any favors...
  10. The 49ers defense is scary, but 2 of 4 of their top lineman are out today (Armstead and Kinlaw). So they can be downgraded from a terrifying monster to horrifying monster.
  11. The Wilks mismatch is a good comparison. Watching the defense get diced up in zone is causing a lot of the second half defensive issues. In all four games the D plays lights out in the first half, then opposing OC adjusts starts playing short to mid, and forces these really long defensive drives, which don't always yield points, but add to an already tired defense. As for McAdoo, I've not seen any compelling defense of this offense, except to say that if the players were perfect 100% of the time, there would be scoring, but it would take a long time to happen, and the overall output would not match with actual modern NFL offenses. And no players can play perfect football. Chiefs and Bills still make lots of mistakes, but when it goes right, the offense puts up good drives without requiring 100 completion rates and perfect run-game blocking every down.
  12. 4-8 team European division that gets one wildcard spot a season.
  13. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-news-and-rumors-notebook-100722/ and https://www.profootballrumors.com/2022/10/increasing-communication-issues-between-panthers-hc-matt-rhule-oc-ben-mcadoo I've seen nothing this season that would lead me to believe that the OC and HC are having any issues whatsover.... /s
  14. Definitely. One dropped INT and one voided because of that terrible PI, and Brissett's game against the Panthers looks way worse, and Carolina definitely wins that one. That's the only hope against Jimmy G this weekend and the niners: making 9ers pay with turnover worthy plays.
  15. Ah, I missed the mention of the ALL22 not being released. It seems to be releasing on Xbox NFL+ at a different time than on other platforms or the web browser, sometimes, because apparently some people still don't have Saint's ALL22, and I watched that all last week. Moton seems hurt. The line is still gelling, but they are much better than in the early games, in my opinion. They just seem to break down with blitzes or any d-line tricks that rapidly change blocking assignments or manifest an unexpected blocker.
  16. I can agree with that, there is inefficiency in Mayfield's mechanics (at least compared to QBs with elite release), which probably gives just that little extra moment when they happen to be in the right spot to react, with eyes locked on QB (being 6'6" against a 6'3"-6'4" lineman or TE blocking down gives sightlines) and already know the throws destination, lane and timing. My biggest concern is the play recognition and/or blocking of passing lanes, because Watt is trying to swat while rushing early game, but it doesn't work. By the second half of the Cardinals game it's like block city out there. CLE had earlier pass deflection success, but it cooled down late game. Somebody adjusted that late game, or moving away from the short game in 2min fixes the problem, with no quick game. Like all things I feel I see with the offense this season, right now, it's a lot of things wrong, rotationally, which is making everything equate to a crappy passing game, inconsistent run game, few third downs and low scoring. It did occur to me this am, if you enjoy frame by frame analysis, you could go to the ALL22 and track JJ Watt's reaction time and deflection action in frames to see how long it's actually taking from ending his pass rush to ball deflection, then cross reference to Mayfield's set and throw. I did this crudely during a few watch throughs, but was more focused more on what Mayfield was doing well or badly at the moment JJ shifted, but I wasn't concerned with reaction time, so much as whether the D-ends were jumping the lanes and ready for pass deflection.
  17. Am I understanding your claim correctly, that the difference in throwing time between Mayfield and "average" is 6-7 frames? And your conclusion is that this 40% "this would allow defenders ample time to read Baker, Jump up and bat a ball down" as opposed to other QBs without this supposed "tell." Is your frame rate 24, 30, or 60? 8 frame quicktime movie from the mid 90s? Youtube's standard frame rate is 24-60 fps. Regardless, going with slowest frame rate (24) those 6-7 additional frames is at most 1/4 of a second, or 250 milliseconds. 17-18 frames is 3/4 of a second, or 750 milliseconds, for the full 17/18 frame full motion. In that time you are suggesting that a defensive player's brain allows it to recognize, slow its own momentum of the pass rush, reset body postion, jump up, and bat the ball, in what amounts to 750 milliseconds (+ time for ball to travel the few yards at upwards of 50-60 mph). Humanly possible, yes, but at the exclusion of other visual and tactile stimuli that are unfolding in pass rush/blocking situation, leaves me dubious and thinking it's not "the" reason this is happening. Trained athletes can react to visual stimulus in 200 milliseconds. This seems an accepted duration of time it takes for a human to start physical reaction to visual stimulus (sound is faster, interestingly). The time to stop and redirect bodily motion, identify trajectory and throw hands up, would require additional precious miliseconds. While it is humanly possible to throw an arm vertically in a half second, as studies have shown humans can react to a fall and catch themselves in this time frame of about 500 milliseconds, it would account for the remaining time before the throw is out of the QB's hands. Very narrow. So, theoretically, it's possible if the D-lineman is fixated on the QB to pull this off but (a) that is hardly "ample time" --- to read Baker AND Jump up AND bat a ball down" and (b) the more salient issue is what is transpiring before the throwing motion (before the 17-18 frames) that would delay reaction or prolong action.. A defensive lineman is moving, defeating blockers, trying to maintain sightlines --all actions antithetical to stopping and redirecting attention and energy to pass deflection. Unless the frame rate you're viewing is strangely low, you're looking at upper limit human reactions, while rushing a passer, fending off a blocker, stopping and redirecting momentum, propelling 300 pounds upwards, while raising equally bulky limbs -- and all while maintaining consistent visual input on the QB and a rapidly accelerating projectile. More problematic, then also, is that the pass rusher's physical motion and momentum is directed forward and against a resisting agent; unless they are already planning to jump because they have been made aware of a pass well earlier than the 750 miliseconds needed to react and act on the pass deflection -- without prior intent and readiness this seems a superhuman effort to pull off 5 times in a short span of a single game, this seems really fugging hard to pull off. All this tells me (pun!) is that... If Mayfield has a tell (and he might) it's not this. It seems more likely that if his throwing motion is slowed by this "lift" you identify, it's reasonable that whatever actual tell is tipping defenders to the pass play called, that perhaps his "40%" slower release gives the lineman a superior chance to deflect, when the the actual, other tell or tip is recognized, thus allowing the rusher to set himself preemptively in the passing lane and start his jump when the QB sets to throw. The actual advantage then comes from 1) knowing it's a passing play 2) knowing where the pass is going 3) knowing the timing of the throw from the snap 4) not overcommitting to rushing but instead setting up to deflect passes in the ideal spot. Rewatch the game film on ALL22, of the batted passes. Something else is tipping the play earlier to D-lineman. Others have noted that by the 4th quarter Watt and Allen are not even rushing the passer and instead playing deflection on specific plays, at specific spots later in the game, before Mayfield sets and releases. Their deflections are carried out with timing, similar to how a quick pass it timed. Very cool post, though - you put time in (which is why I responded thoroughly, as well) and it's fun to look at QB mechanics - of which Mayfield falls into the "body thrower" category - and you clearly found some aspect of his throwing motion that adds to time to release. Yet, I think to more accurately assess Mayfield's difference in time to throw (and its impact on deflections) from other quarterbacks, you'd need to do a full assessment of more than Mac Jones, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson for comparison. They seem curious, questionable choices, as all the QBs you chose are known for especially quick releases. A less biased comparison might ask to compare Mayfield to other QBs with similar release times and then identify their absence of similar motion tells, and then cross reference with deflected pass rates to expose Mayfield as an outlier (and not adult). As well, you might consider some QB coaching, as someo teach bringing the ball up and in as security measure, which might account for his lifting action before setting to throw. Or maybe, not and he just has weird mechanics. If Mayfield is at fault for the batted passes, it seems the more obvious explanation is that he's not managing the throwing lanes properly, especially since Watt and Allen were preemptively sitting there ready to swat.
  18. There are better breakdowns out there of this game (Unnecessary Bluntness for one), and with this video doing so not from the ALL22 film, he's missing any real perspective on reads, progressions, open windows, timing, etc. In order to get any sense of a WR being open when the QB is reading the area. Some of the "pedestrian" throws are not so pedestrian in the ALL22, but I've watched the offense from this game six times now, and the offensive scheme looks worse and worse, playcalls are less explicable, CMC impresses more and more in ever making gains with the run calls and blocking, and the QB looks less bad (even good at times) unless you choose to lay all the blame on the blocked passes at his feet, which sure, why not, since it's not ideal and he's the one throwing the ball, and we can't be sure its not Mayfield isn't optioning to the short game and tipping Watt and Zach Allen to the precise pass play that's coming. Batted passes don't happen in the first half though, so something is rotten in the playbook/execution. Rewatching the three TE drops on the first three drives just makes me laugh now. Link to a superior breakdown, if anyone missed it.
  19. Is Wilson bad or OC and scheme? I don't have energy to watch ALL22 for another team and its QB, OC, and scheme. Wilson looked bad in Seattle last year, but he had the hand injury, but this...
  20. I watched almost no Atlanta games last season, was Matt Ryan this bad, or did he fall through a wormhole into retirement?
  21. Nothing has made me feel better about Panther's football this season than watching this game....
  22. I'd wonder how many of these players were shocked to come to training camp and find Rhule still head coach after the last season. No surprise they'd be accepting of moving on, probably were already there last February.
  23. Discounting deflections and drops Mayfield is 80% accuracy against Cardinals. 5 true misses include the passes you mention, so it wasn't as bad as I thought watching live. If you had told me last year Mayfield goes to Panthers and plays bad, I'd have believed it, because Rhule and because who knows what Mayfield shows up post injury. I don't know if I would also have believed both Matt Ryan and Russel Wilson would look worse on (what were) better teams. Jacoby Brissett is the only QB on a new squad playing much better than I'd thought, and I think he's coming back to earth, and benefited from an easy schedule.
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