MHS831

This is not an opinion--it is an analysis of the Watson trade scenario from the people who hold the cards--The HOUSTON TEXANS' FRONT OFFICE. They really are in control, and a wrong move could crush that organization. So for fun, I analyzed how this might play out. Enjoy. I accept Bitcoin but do not accept criticism. This is not about emotion and what I want--this is as objective as I could get. Slow time of year, so I thought I would analyze this so I could understand and predict. If it helps you, you're welcome. If this makes you mad or butt hurt, it is only speculation. Since Texas holds the cards, it is from their perspective. Scenario 1: Keep Watson. You are basically the captain of a mutinous ship--you have lost a great WR, a hall of fame DL, and now, the fan base is watching to see what you do with a top 5 QB who is demanding a trade. Keep Watson, you have a fan base that knows the QB wanted out (assuming he does not hold out) and force him to honor his contract. Scenario 2: Trade a top 5 QB and get picks that will help you rebuild. The Jets and Dolphins each have 2 first round picks in 2021. Both teams have a recently-drafted, first round QB to deal. The Panthers, on the other hand, have the eighth overall pick and second first round pick. If I am Houston, I look for a QB to come in who can develop into the QB just dealt. If that is the case and I want a veteran QB and two first rounders, Miami makes the most sense if they like Tua-- they would get Tua, the 3rd, and the 18th pick in 2021 (maybe more). I then TRADE the #3 overall pick back for more picks. Theoretically, you get a young QB and 3-4 picks in the top 50. So if the Panthers are looking to trade up with Miami, they have to wait for the Watson trade to happen or not. If it does not, and they are not happy with Tua, they will want a QB. Scenario 2a: If the Texans trade with the Jets, then I doubt Darnold at QB will appease the fans in Houston as much as Tua, so we could assume Houston will take Wilson if they trade with the Jets, and get other picks. This is the most likely scenario, in my opinion. The Jets have the cap space ($68m) and the large market that needs a large name to attract fans. The Texans landing the #2 QB in the draft might save jobs. Scenario 2c: Houston dangles Watson for picks #3, #18 and Tua. If this deal were to go down, Houston may be interested in trading out of #3 or they may take Sewell or a stud WR--but they would likely not take a QB. In almost every scenario, the #3 pick seems to be one that is available for trade. Scenario 3: The Panthers are the last man standing after the Dolphins and the Jets opt for less-expensive options (one takes Wilson, the other stays with Tua). The Jets can not only draft Wilson, the can trade Darnold, and have a QB on a 4-year, rookie contract. They can build around him instead of trading away a bunch to Houston. Miami has a high first round draft pick QB from 2020 and they are developing and they might not want to bring in a big contract. They have about $23m in cap room--signing Fitzpatrick for a year might be the move for them, while trading the pick to build the roster with cheap rookie contracts. On paper, Watson does not make sense right now. I do not see them trading. Keep Tua and build the roster with picks and the remaining cap or give the picks and cap room and Tua to Houston for Watson-possible, but I do not see the wisdom. Longshot prediction--A three-team deal: In this case, the #3 pick becomes something both the Panthers want as plan B and the Texans want as Plan A. Houston does not have the capital to move up to #3 if Miami is not in the market. Here is where a three-team trade would be ideal. Houston trades Watson to Carolina for CMC, Thompson and #8 overall, including a first rounder in 2022 and 2023. Houston then sends the #8 overall and maybe the first rounder in 2022 to Miami for #3. Miami then sends the #3 pick to Houston. This way, all teams get what they want- Houston gets a first rounder in 2023, the #3 pick in the draft (a QB), CMC and Thompson (for example). Miami gets #8 in the draft, a first rounder in 2022. Carolina gets Watson, QB Or simply move up to #3 for Lance or Fields. If that falls through or Houston wants to keep Watson, the Panthers can trade up with Miami for #8 overall and the first in 2022 and a player like Thompson. With that pick, they can choose Lance or Fields. That is how I think this thing plays out based on what facts are available, but there are hundreds of ways it can go. Slow news, but this helped me put the QB possibilities in perspective. (I would say there is about a 40% chance we trade with Miami) So

RACIST!!!! Fire sticks is what the native Americans called guns. This painting is called, WHITE MAN FIRE STICKS. I can't believe that you replaced a slur with a slur. Jeez. (Just kidding--I know what you meant, but it made me laugh) Actually, it is funny that the NBA team had to change from "bullets" because it was too violent and only now is a team name based on a race's skin color considered offensive.

Many of you have PM'd me and asked, What do you think, MHS? I appreciate the desire for my input, but I have a life---the mail piled on my porch--the parade of people clogging the street at the end of my driveway---getting old. So here it is: Lawrence: Jax will not trade--next. 2a Lance: While I really like Wilson, Lance has incredible upside. 2b. Wilson: I think Wilson is more boom or bust than Lance, although he is more pro-ready than Lance right now. He is not going to get stronger or bigger, imo, so I wonder if he will be durable. 3. Fields. You can say, "whatabout Watson?" but one exception to a rule is an excuse, not a dismissal. I would say back (referring to recent Ohio St QBs: Whatabout Haskins? Troy Smith? Miller? Jones? etc. etc. Should OSU QBs scare you? I think he can be successful, but I am not sure about a running qb without demonstrated defense-reading literacy. The talent is there--assume you have to develop him. In other words, regardless of all this noise, he is likely a 2022 starting QB, not a 2021. Same for Lance, fwiw, and maybe Wilson. 4. Forget QB. Maybe pick up Mond or Newman late and see if you can develop them as the #3,

But you remembered it enough to call it forgettable. This is getting intense. Seriously, he has an injury history dating back to Bama. He might be a better fit now than he was. I hope to see him step up.

He was not a good tackle when he was here. Maybe at the end of his career--I barely remember him. FUN FACTS: Andre the Giant, as I understand it, died while living in a secluded home in Ellerbe NC (Near Rockingham). He too was an actor, playing in one of my favorite movies of all time, THE PRINCESS BRIDE He was a drinking buddy of mine (kidding) "Andre once admitted to David Letterman that he consumed 119 12-ounce beers in a single sitting. However, former wrestler Mike Graham stated that Andre actually reached 156 beers in one sitting. This was confirmed in an episode of Legends of Wrestling by “The American Dream” Dusty Rhodes and Michael Hayes."

That sounds about right. Here is what I heard: 1, Trevor 2 Wilson 3. Lance 4 Fields (do not want) x that's it.

I called both of them and apologized.

My problem (as if this is the only one) is that I do not trust Alabama QBs, Ohio State QBs, or QBs from FCS schools. I guess there are some decent/not recent BYU QBs. Probably (and I have not thought this through) the best QBU lately has been NC State.

Jones---if you give him a great OL, a CMC, and good WRs and a good TE, he could be about like Locke in Denver, maybe better. If he is there in the second, I am not sure I would take him. A QB needs to be a stud or you don't have one. It is a wasted pick. If Grier was drafted in round 5, you still would have no QB--just a better round to waste a pick

So you are saying that because they could not see him, they could not make a decision about him? They could not communicate with his surgeon? They could not communicate with his rehab team? He could not have sent them range of motion videos, film of him passing? Cam was picking and choosing what he wanted teams to see and know. One scout tweeted, (paraphrasing) Cam wants us to kick the tires after we buy the car. It don't work that way." The league has a grapevine--there may be secrets hidden from the public, but people generally know. Cam had red flags. Cam may have had a good game with his repaired shoulder, but it does not take long for those ligaments and tendons to stretch out and become "fatigued". Shoulder surgery ended my career in college, so I have some idea of how it feels. Some snap back, but you can't tape a shoulder to give it support. It is either fully repaired or it is not. Cam looked like a new car, but he was burning oil.

I am kidding myself then. Like Cam, a QB's life expectancy is not measured in years or organic nutribars. Wilson has been hit a lot, and he does not have the frame Cam has. https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/831-hits-counting-toll-cam-newtons-punishing-playing/story?id=42831795

The STARTING POINT is 3 firsts--the ENDING POINT will be much lower if they are serious.

Marty made CMC expendable when he signed him to that deal. He is such a person who gets called dumbass a lot.

A lot of this mystery will be resolved in March---but it is tough waiting that long.

I am of the same mindset--Miami, if they are really ready to move on from their first round, coming off injury QB, and will give up a bunch of picks to do so...Or do they sit there and take Lance or Fields--or trade back a bit and GAIN a pick and take Lance or Fields? Just does not make that much sense. The Jets? They are in position to get Wilson, and he is widely considered to be the best QB in the draft not named Trevor. They need picks to build a bad roster--are they really going to trade away a first rounder in 2022 to get Watson over Wilson? That makes no sense, which is why they might do it. The Dolphins have some picks this year, but they are hardly a complete team. They are the team, however, that threatens the Panthers' chances the most, imo.

Whoa!! This needs its own thread title: BurnNChinn has a friend. (is it Mr. Scot?)

Cam could have embarrassed him. "Kid, you will know when I am poor when I move in next door to you." "You remind me of myself at your age; only I had already hit puberty." "By the look of those blisters, you are right handed and single."

Yep. A real peach.

I am not sure what you mean--I just throw ideas out to stretch our thinking on it. I do not visit the Huddle to have my narrow-minded opinions confirmed. I am wrong too much---I really do not understand the thought/question. I think I know what you meant, and I am not endorsing this as option A. I am not even endorsing it at all--just thinking it through from a positive perspective.

We need an evaluator who can match the skill set to the system and gauge the potential for success. We (Huddlers) look at stats and scoreboards and say, "He sucks." But at one time, Mariota was one of the top 2 QBs in college football. I do not see bust in this case, I see bad fit. But I am not an expert--which is why I like to hear alternative opinions and I do not care for the armchair GMs who think a QB at 22 is better than a veteran at 27. There are a lot of QBs in the NFL that have resurrected their careers in a new town with a new coach. This year, with all the movement looking for Watson, R Wilson, top 4 draft picks, somebody is going to overlook a player that simply needs the right fit. I wish I had the eye to know who and where.

I had the same question-- https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest/oregon-ducks/why-marcus-mariota-may-be-cut-raiders-rather-traded-despite-rumors

I can just hear him at the table---hedge fund managers think outside the box and they take risks. If anything, he would empower the brain trust to take risks if they feel it will produce a solid return. Instead of looking over their shoulders and second guessing themselves, they are looking for the moment to make their move. When I said, "calling the shots" (I was leaving and wanted, for some reason, to send out that message) I was actually happy that he was telling them what he wanted--I doubt many doubt we need a QB, but for the owner to be pounding the table, we will do it. So your take is on point. I am a Tepper fan. I love how he made his money--it takes balls, skill, and intelligence to do that--what we are looking for in a QB.

Good chance he is cut if they cannot get a good offer.

Mariota--not a bad thought. A lot of people trash the qbs that are highly rated, drafted early, and then go to some terrible team. They become 21-year old saviors for an entire city/state and are often drafted early because the front office sucks. Having said all that, there is something to be said about a guy who can play with talent around him. A guy who has sat on the bench for a few years. A student of the game. When I saw him play one game this year, he was not the same QB he was in Tennessee. I have a friend on the Raiders team and he loves Mariota. He says that he thinks Mariota is better than Carr. Said he is fast, has a good, accurate arm, and the players like him. He is 27 and mobile. When he came out, was he as good as Wilson? Lance? Fields? Give him some protection and weapons, and he could surprise some folks. To me, he is the hidden gem of free agency--the Tanneyhill. Mariota has an 89 career qb rating and 62% completion rate. I think both increase here once we get the OL together. He might be cut--the salary cap figure for him is $11m, so it is possible we could sign him without losing a pick or a trade. WFT loves him, and that is where he is projected to go if anywhere--- The pick is not getting the QB he has been, but it is picking a skill set that possibly might prosper in this system. Just a thought for those who like draft picks and keeping our best players.