Will Cam be among the top five qbs in five years?

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

In 5 years, the following QBs will probably retire: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Ben R., Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Alex Smith. That leaves Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck as locks for the top 5. Cam is competing against Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, and any new upcoming QB for the top 5 ranking. It's not that far-fetched of a thought.

Also, "he is who he is" isn't accurate at all. You're forgetting that Cam only had 1 year of major CFB experience, that too in a read option run heavy offense. So, Cam's development phase (normally 3-4 years) was always going to be longer than those QBs with 4 years of CFB experience like Luck, Wilson, Ryan, etc. Cam's development was also delayed with ankle surgery and Gettleman's re-build in 2014.  From reports out of OTAs so far, Rivera says this is the sharpest and most precise Cam has ever looked in the off-season. If Cam makes a significant improvement with footwork, mechanics, and consistency in year 5, he has a solid chance of being a top 5 QB in 5 years.

Even if you see Wilson and Ryan in the top 5, all Cam would need to do is at least equal Flacco and Stafford in passing skills/consistency (he's not that far behind) and his mobility/athleticism/rushing ability would rank him over Flacco and Stafford into the top 5. We're talking about top 5 QBs not top 5 pure pocket passers. You have to factor in Cam's elite rushing talent.

 

That isn't true at all. Playing for more years in college only gives you more experience in the college game. You aren't going to learn how to play in the NFL by playing more college ball. Playing for a bunch of years in a "pro system" has done jack poo for the last 500 USC quarterbacks.

And besides... how long do you think Cam's "development phase" will be? He turned 26 last month, which is the age where NFL QBs typically enter their prime. When he still puts up average passing numbers, will the huddle blame the Carpenter's tools once again? The pieces are all in place for Cam to really take a step up from just a "pretty good QB" club he's been in the past few years, along with Stafford and Alex Smith.

[TheRed]

Hard to tell. Cam Newton has the talent, and work ethic to continue improving, and he has a good support system around him.

There is certainly reason to believe that he can and will work his way into "elite" status. But the term "elite" is overused these days anyways, people refer to QB's as elite just for putting up big numbers only to end up getting waxed in the playoffs on a regular basis. Win a Super Bowl, and all this will change immediately.

Also, do not bother arguing with Sean Payton's Vicodin about Cam, the guy is in borderline TonyN territory when it comes to Newton.

[pantherking15]

That isn't true at all. Playing for more years in college only gives you more experience in the college game. You aren't going to learn how to play in the NFL by playing more college ball. Playing for a bunch of years in a "pro system" has done jack poo for the last 500 USC quarterbacks.

And besides... how long do you think Cam's "development phase" will be? He turned 26 last month, which is the age where NFL QBs typically enter their prime. When he still puts up average passing numbers, will the huddle blame the Carpenter's tools once again? The pieces are all in place for Cam to really take a step up from just a "pretty good QB" club he's been in the past few years, along with Stafford and Alex Smith.

The appeal with all of the USC QBs was how pro-ready and surefire they were. Maybe because those USC QBs were never that inherently talented anyway? Playing 4 years in college allows a QB to polish up their footwork and mechanics (the two main things holding Cam back from his maximum potential) and improve their consistency in going through their reads from the pocket.

Just look at how much Andrew Luck improved from his freshman year to his senior year at Stanford. Luck most definitely benefited from working 4 years with Jim Harbaugh (a QB guru) and came into the NFL hailed as the "best QB prospect since John Elway." That doesn't happen without 4 years of Harbaugh's influence and Luck's work on his QB fundamentals. The difference, compared to those USC QBs, was that Luck had a lot more natural talent.

Cam was actually on track in his development. From year 2 to year 3, he improved his completion % from 57.7% to 61.7%, passing TDs from 19 to 24, and passer rating from 86.2 to 88.8. And if you look at Cam's 2013 game log (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/13994/year/2013/cam-newton), you'll see that Cam had a 98.6 average passer rating those first 8 games, but it dropped to 86.4 the last 8 games after Cam injured his ankle in the week 10 49ers game. So, the jump from year 2 to year 3 could have been even better without the ankle injury.

As for Cam's lack of development last year, blame Marty Hurney for putting us in cap hell which forced Gettleman to do a drastic re-build after 2013. No QB would be expected to build off their improvement after their pro-bowl LT, LG retire and their WR corps is completely re-built. Add in Cam's ankle surgery, our $100M backfield all getting injured, and our elite #2 defense falling to #21 (in ppg) which caused our ball control offense to play catch up, something they're not built to do. Any QB in those conditions (even Luck or Rodgers) would have regressed.

I do agree with you that 26 is when QBs hit their prime. With Cam completely healthy and having the best team he's ever had, 2015 will show his true potential.

[TheRed]

This guy says playing more years of football in college does nothing to help a QB, and then only references USC quarterbacks to back that up.

That's the funniest poo I've read on the huddle in awhile.

[pantherking15]

What I need to see from Cam in 2015 to know he can be top 5 in 5 years:

• Improve completion % to 62% or better
• Pass for at least 27 TDs
• Pass for at least 3,600 yards
• Improve passer rating to 93 or better
• Lead the team to 10 or more wins and make the playoffs
• Bonus: Leading a deep playoff run will make up for any deficiencies in the first 4 points

That's pretty darn good in a Mike Shula ball control offense. If you want better stats, you'll have to wait until we get a more creative and aggressive OC.

[TheRed]

I hate to say it, but for Newton to become consistently top 5 like people here are talking about, we will have to reduce his designed runs pretty significantly.

I don't think it's talked about enough just how much of an impact all this running has on his mechanics, and the habits that it brings back when he is gassed from running. Not to mention the potential for injury by using him as a battering ram all the time. I'm not saying take that element out completely. But it will have to be scaled back. That's really all there is to it.

We saw how good he was from within the pocket early on last year. That is how great he can be as a passer if we give him the proper protection.

[Cyberjag]

Luck and Wilson will very likely be in everyone's top 5.  Roethlesberger and Rivers will be 38, and probably on most lists as well.  Rodgers is a given.  People will probably argue for Ryan, Flacco, and Stafford as well, and there will be pockets that like Tannehill, Bridgewater, and Kaepernick.

I have no idea where Cam will fit in to all of this.  Odds are he won't be in many lists as a top 5 QB.  But he will still be a hell of an offensive weapon, and that's all I care about.

[ctrcat]

Since he's currently got the greatest resume and skill set for a just turned 26 year old in the history of team sports, put me down for a yes.

[lightsout]

lol, no

we're going into year 5 for cam. he is who he is at this point. he's not some big mystery anymore.

The guy had one real year of college football. And even in that year, he and that Auburn team were so dominant, save for the Alabama game (still a top 3 Iron Bowl to me, if not the greatest) that he didn't have to grow much. Neither needed to or had time to. He still will improve over this season and next. After that, he'll do what all veteran QBs do. Refine small parts of his game, but not really jump much in development. Which is fine, because by then, he'll be arguably the best QB in the league, IMO.

[ctrcat]

lol, no

we're going into year 5 for cam. he is who he is at this point. he's not some big mystery anymore.

Michael Jordan took 7 years to win his first and the average age of Super Bowl winning QBs is 30, FYI.

[pantherphan96]

 

Tannehill is a solid game manager right now who has no deep ball whatsoever (and his career yards/attempt reflects that) and will likely end up more in the mold of an Alex Smith than a true elite QB. I don't think he'll ever be top 5, but he'll be a consistent top 15 guy with some up seasons and some down seasons who is capable of being a "franchise QB" but never an elite QB. As for Bridgewater, he has some size limitations, mid-intermediate range accuracy issues and arm strength questions. But other than that, he is all you could really ask for in a QB. He's the real deal and I absolutely see him being top 5 in 5 years. He can go through his reads better than any other young QB not named Andrew Luck or Cam Newton (this is completely non-homer) and his accuracy is solid for this stage in his career. Most importantly though, he's a very intelligent QB and makes good decisions. Not really a threat on the ground, and at this point he's not a big threat throwing deep (not as bad as Tannehill) but that could improve. I think Tannehill is generally pretty well respected around the league so I'd say he's properly rated, but Bridgewater is very underrated. If I had to guess right now based on how I see things turning out, here's what my top 5 in 5 years would be:

Agreed on Tannehill, but he doesn't really get much attention for how decent he has been. Miami could be a solid run-heavy, strong defense team with Tannehill under center limiting mistakes and controlling the time of possession. I think his ceiling is similar to Chad Pennington when healthy, around a top 10-15 QB with a decent record. And you are right about Bridgewater having the talent and the stats so far, but I just have a gut feeling that he won't pan out as highly as many people think despite his skills. I think he will suffer a major sophomore slump, even with the return of Peterson.