Panthers Red Zone improvement

[KB_fan]

Cam and the Panthers have begun to get quite a bit of attention for their dramatic improvement in the Red Zone this season.  I'm sure you've all seen tweets, etc. with a few of the stats.  Jonathan Jones has put together a nice article at the Observer.  Yesterday, before I saw this article, I had posted Red Zone comparison stats for seveal seasons in the stats & analysis thread.  I'll copy those comments & tables below.

But first, here's the Observer article link and an excerpt:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article48880965.html

 

Quote

 

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton says there is nothing different about him or his team this year, but the statistics beg to differ.

Just look at what he’s done in the fourth quarter this year. And remember all those red zone problems in 2014? The Panthers are fifth in the league this season with their highest rating inside the 20 in the Newton/Ron Rivera era. […]

In the fourth quarter this season, Newton has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 673 yards, six touchdowns and one interception.

And inside the 20 he has a 111.5 passer rating with 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Even Newton’s offensive coordinator, Mike Shula, can’t explain it.

“The best answer I can give you is I’m not sure, but I do know this,” Shula said Monday following Carolina’s 41-38 victory over New Orleans. “There was more of a relaxed calmness about him yesterday. And the other time I noticed was in the overtime against Indianapolis. Just where I think it’s confidence in himself and in his teammates. It doesn’t matter what’s going to happen, we’re going to get it done.”

[…]

The red zone issues plagued the Panthers in 2014. They suffered through it to get a 7-8-1 season and win the division. They scored a touchdown on 48.15 percent of their trips inside the 20, which was 26th in the league and the worst in Newton’s five seasons.

Center Ryan Kalil said the offense took a long look at that statistic at the end of last year and made it a point to improve on it. They take extra repetitions in practice on red zone drills, and it’s paid off.

The Panthers are now scoring touchdowns on 65.31 percent of their trips inside the 20, which is the fifth-best in the league. They’re doing it all without 6-foot-5 receiver Kelvin Benjamin but with a more cohesive offensive line.

“It’s hard to score when you get down there. The more consistent you can be the better chance you have of giving the quarterback and receivers confidence when we get down there,” Kalil said. “A lot of it starts with the offensive line and protecting the quarterback, giving him confidence to take the time he needs to execute and to zing it in there. And that, in turn, helps the receivers.”

 

 

[KB_fan]

Here are the three comments about Red Zone stats I posted yesterday in the Stats & Analysis thread:

 

I've had a chance to dig into our Red Zone efficiency stats a little bit.   In particular, it is interesting to note that we already have more Red Zone attempts so far this season with 4 games left to play than we had all of last season.

2014:  46 Red Zone attempts,  22 Touchdowns =  48%

2015 to date (12 games):  49 Red Zone attempts, 32 Touchdowns = 65%

I'll post a graph showing the week by week red zone success for each season later.

[KB_fan]

Here's a simple table showing our red zone success % and ranking ever since Cam arrived.  One can really understand how the Shula hate accelerated, since Red Zone success deteriorated so sharply in 2013 & 2014.  Football is a LOT more fun when your team is getting in the Red Zone and scoring TDs!

[KB_fan]

Here are the graphs comparing Red Zone attempts & scores (TDs) for 2014 & 2015 to date (regular season only):

WE HAD 5 GAMES IN 2014 WITH NO SCORES FROM THE RED ZONE (including 1 game where we didn't even get in the red zone.)

In 2014 we had 3 total games with 4 or more red zone attempts.  So far in the 12 games played in 2015, we've already had 7 games with 4 or more red zone attempts.

 

[KB_fan]

I was in a hurry yesterday, so I didn't include opponent names.  Here's are better versions of the above two graphs showing who we played.

[KB_fan]

One thing I should probably try to look at to add to this analysis is HOW we got the ball in the Red Zone.  This year there have been a number of occasions where our defense has forced a turnover in the red zone...

It might be interesting to see how many of our RZ attempts came courtesy of our defense.  I'll see if I can come up with a summary of all of our Red Zone drives so far this season.

Stay tuned...

It will take a little bit of work.  I'll probably tackle it by "quarters" - maybe looking at Q1 today and Q2 & Q3 on Sat.

[arbnranger]

Great stuff as always KB!

[KB_fan]

Here's the overview of all of our Red Zone Drives in the 1st quarter of the season:

Here's a summary of the drives and their results:

As you can see, in this quarter, the Panthers offense did profit from our defense forcing turnovers - especially in the game against Tampa Bay.  Five our our 14 trips to the Red Zone began following turnovers.  One of the turnovers (in the JAX game) gave us the ball in the Red Zone, and another turnover (in Tampa) was on the 21 yard line, 

Overall that greatly shortened the distance our offense had to drive the ball to score.  Our average starting field position for Red Zone drives this quarter was on our own 41 yard line, and the average drive length was 53 yards.

Nearly 3/4s (71%) of our TDs scored in the Red Zone, were on throws from Cam.  He also ran two in.  So Cam was responsible for 100% of our RZ TDs in the 1st quarter.

[L-TownCat]

I can't handle all this agenda!!!

srsly, good work KB, really enjoy your threads.  

[shaqattaq]

Wow, you work hard on this stuff. I love it.

In the article, Cam insists that he hasn't changed, and I agree with that. I think that this success stems mainly from much better protection from the line (RIP Bell) and better play calling. Those Tolbert scrambles are wonderful, plus you get a "fat man dance" at the end. If you give a really good QB, like Cam, enough time, he will find the open man.

[UpstatePanther]

5 hours ago, KB_fan said:

 

I find it interesting that a week after a near-complete performance (WAS), the defense has to carry our offense (DAL), and does so with flying colors. Then a week after that (NO), the offense has to carry the defense. Just goes to show how good this team is. We match up well against everybody. We can beat anybody becsuse we can beat them with offense or defense. 

Man I can't wait for the playoffs. Bring on AZ, Minny, and Seattle! I wish we could play all three of them in the playoffs! Haha but at this point that would require a meteoric collapse and I'm still hoping for 19-0! haha

[ecu88]

@KB_fan

What has been our average drive distance this year and how has it compared to the other Cam Newton years?

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, ecu88 said:

@KB_fan

What has been our average drive distance this year and how has it compared to the other Cam Newton years?

good question.  I'll see if I can find that.  I won't have time this week / weekend to calculate it myself, but if I can find it online fairly easily, I'll post it here.

[TheRed]

Nice work man, thanks.

I don't think it's been talked about enough around here just how improved our red zone percentage is this season.

Goes to show what you can do with a good OL. Having a guy like Newton changes everything though. The little things he does at the line, the command of the offense. It's fantastic to see. Enjoy this season guys.