Cam for MVP, debunking statistical assumptions

[Peppers90 NC]

Came across this article, pretty solid if the data is indeed correct. Not that it matters what other fans say, in fact the harder they fight the obvious brings me joy. But here is a nice article putting the common detractors arguments to rest during this magical season. Check the link for the full article.

http://www.todayspigskin.com/nfc-today/nfc-south/carolina-panthers/cam-newton-clear-statistical-case-mvp/

Quote

There’s a general buzz about how Cam Newton is the quarterback of an undefeated NFL team, but that doesn’t mean he deserves to be MVP. And, to be fair, when the Miami Dolphins went undefeated in 1972, it was a Washington Redskin, Larry Brown, who was honored with the title. The narrative goes that Newton is riding his defense and unspectacular passer ratings to his MVP. The problem with that narrative is it requires cherry-picking to get there.

Let’s set aside everything else for a moment and consider one fact that is virtually undeniable: If Cam Newton went down, this would not even be a playoff team. Being the difference between watching the postseason at home and potentially going undefeated is a pretty hefty bonus in the “Value” column, but perhaps you want more objective evidence. Maybe you’re buying into this hype about the defense being what is winning his games.

 

[caatfan]

Yeah, dig a little deeper in the stats and Cam does shine brighter than Brady and Palmer.

[Cookie Lyon]

Great article. I love how the writer debunked the false narratives surrounding this team.

[-13 Amp-]

busted all but the one that has stuck around since the streak started getting hot...look at the only damn comment in the article, and its the only "point" the nay-sayers have left...

"You do have to say that the Patriots and Cardinals have a much stronger strength of schedule. The Panthers only played one team that currently has a winning record. Their ranked 5th in strength of schedule and they're only that high because they're better than the other crappy teams in their division."

[CPcavedweller]

The assumption that we would not be a playoff team without Cam is a fallacy in itself. That is not something that can be proven and if anything can be debunked by the fact that with Derek Anderson starting we are 2-0. There isn't any evidence to say that we lose with Anderson starting. This is one of those things that we dislike when it was said about our starter, so why would it be different for the back-up?

Cam is playing at a high level this year, but to say we aren't a playoff team without him is a dig on everyone else. The team isn't built to be QB centric and it shows in the fact that regardless of if Cam is lights out (New Orleans) or managing (Dallas) we still win. 

I would appreciate never reading the statement again, especially considering how the rest of the South is playing. 

[Peppers90 NC]

4 minutes ago, -13 Amp- said:

busted all but the one that has stuck around since the streak started getting hot...look at the only damn comment in the article, and its the only "point" the nay-sayers have left...

"You do have to say that the Patriots and Cardinals have a much stronger strength of schedule. The Panthers only played one team that currently has a winning record. Their ranked 5th in strength of schedule and they're only that high because they're better than the other crappy teams in their division."

Well that myth would be much harder to debunk. You can point out that we played quite a few teams that either came off big wins with momentum and we totally smashed them such as Cowboys, Skins, Eagles, Titans and this week Giants. But the fact that only two of the 17 teams we played are currently above .500, not a myth.

[JawnyBlaze]

25 minutes ago, CPcavedweller said:

The assumption that we would not be a playoff team without Cam is a fallacy in itself. 

I don't think that's a fallacy at all.  Without Cam it would take a pretty large stretch of the imagination to claim we'd be a playoff team.  DA is a great backup, but with him as the starter I can't imagine we'd be doing any better than .500.  ALL of our close games would have been losses (Cam's offensive contribution far exceeds the point differentials in those games).  And even games like against ATL, without jumping out to an early lead like who did who knows how the rest of the game would have played out.

edit: to get specific with it, without Cam we almost certainly would have lost to the Saints x2, GB, Seattle, Colts, and probably the Texans, Eagles and maybe the Bucs.

[Peppers90 NC]

2 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I don't think that's a fallacy at all.  Without Cam it would take a pretty large stretch of the imagination to claim we'd be a playoff team.  DA is a great backup, but with him as the starter I can't imagine we'd be doing any better than .500.  ALL of our close games would have been losses (Cam's offensive contribution far exceeds the point differentials in those games).  And even games like against ATL, without jumping out to an early lead like who did who knows how the rest of the game would have played out.

The ONLY argument is that our division is bad enough that if we were sitting at 7-6 right now, that we would still make the playoffs. Regardless, the MVP talk is certainly justified as I really believe Cam is the best player in the league right now.

[JawnyBlaze]

Just now, Peppers90 NC said:

The ONLY argument is that our division is bad enough that if we were sitting at 7-6 right now, that we would still make the playoffs. Regardless, the MVP talk is certainly justified as I really believe Cam is the best player in the league right now.

yea, but I don't think we'd be 7-6, and the Saints wouldn't be 5-8.  The Saints would be at least 7-6 (taking away the two losses to us and adding them to the win column).

[Peppers90 NC]

1 minute ago, JawnyBlaze said:

yea, but I don't think we'd be 7-6, and the Saints wouldn't be 5-8.  The Saints would be at least 7-6 (taking away the two losses to us and adding them to the win column).

Probably correct, but I'm just saying it would be easy for the naysayers to make that argument

[CPcavedweller]

12 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I don't think that's a fallacy at all.  Without Cam it would take a pretty large stretch of the imagination to claim we'd be a playoff team.  DA is a great backup, but with him as the starter I can't imagine we'd be doing any better than .500.  ALL of our close games would have been losses (Cam's offensive contribution far exceeds the point differentials in those games).  And even games like against ATL, without jumping out to an early lead like who did who knows how the rest of the game would have played out.

edit: to get specific with it, without Cam we certainly would have lost to the Saints x2, GB, Seattle, Colts, and probably the Texans, Eagles and maybe the Bucs.

So let me ask you this. HOW CAN YOU WITH ANY SORT OF CERTAINTY KNOW ANY OF THAT? That is the point I am making. You jump at the media making negative assumptions about the Panthers, but when a negative assumption is made to back up a positive, it's okay. It's still an assumption, and there is still no way of knowing. Guess what, last year with the playoffs on the line Anderson won. To start out the season, Anderson won. We only won 5 regular season games with cam Starting out of 14 last season. We won 2 out of 2  with Anderson.

Now i'm not trying to say Anderson is better than Cam because that isn't true, but what I am saying is that you cannot possibly say that we wouldn't be a playoff team without Cam, with any sort of credibility. 

[CPcavedweller]

11 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

yea, but I don't think we'd be 7-6, and the Saints wouldn't be 5-8.  The Saints would be at least 7-6 (taking away the two losses to us and adding them to the win column).

"Making statements, assuming?"

[Cookie Lyon]

15 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I don't think that's a fallacy at all.  Without Cam it would take a pretty large stretch of the imagination to claim we'd be a playoff team.  DA is a great backup, but with him as the starter I can't imagine we'd be doing any better than .500.  ALL of our close games would have been losses (Cam's offensive contribution far exceeds the point differentials in those games).  And even games like against ATL, without jumping out to an early lead like who did who knows how the rest of the game would have played out.

edit: to get specific with it, without Cam we certainly would have lost to the Saints x2, GB, Seattle, Colts, and probably the Texans, Eagles and maybe the Bucs.

Agreed.

I like DA, but some fans act as if he's Tom Brady. He is a backup for a reason. 

[JawnyBlaze]

2 minutes ago, CPcavedweller said:

So let me ask you this. HOW CAN YOU WITH ANY SORT OF CERTAINTY KNOW ANY OF THAT? That is the point I am making. You jump at the media making negative assumptions about the Panthers, but when a negative assumption is made to back up a positive, it's okay. It's still an assumption, and there is still no way of knowing. Guess what, last year with the playoffs on the line Anderson won. To start out the season, Anderson won. We only won 5 regular season games with cam Starting out of 14 last season. We won 2 out of 2  with Anderson.

Now i'm not trying to say Anderson is better than Cam because that isn't true, but what I am saying is that you cannot possibly say that we wouldn't be a playoff team without Cam, with any sort of credibility. 

I didn't say it with certainty.  I said "I think", "I can't imagine".  Nothing in the entire discussion can be said with certainty. You can't say with certainty that Brady's backup wouldn't do better than him.  You can't say with certainty that Rodgers' backup wouldn't do better than him.  You can make educated guesses though.

edit: reread my post, I did use the word "certainly" once.  Guess that was a mistake.  I'll fix it.