Barnwell: Carolina isn't a good matchup for Denver

[pantherking15]

Bill Barnwell wrote a comprehensive article looking at all the various mismatches between the Panthers and the Broncos.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14705931/denver-best-defense-football-facing-attack-yet-face-nfl

Quote

Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware spent the AFC Championship Game terrorizingTom Brady and the New England Patriots. They combined for three sacks and 11 of Denver's 20 quarterback knockdowns, a season high for any defense in any one game this year. It was a perfect storm of opportunity in a wildly favorable matchup: The Broncos needed to get pressure with as few players as possibleand had a pair of star edge rushers matched up against tackles Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon, who offered precious little resistance.

Super Bowl 50 would seem to present a similar opportunity. Michael Oher andMike Remmers have greatly exceeded expectations as Carolina's starting tackle combination this season, but on paper, they shouldn't be anything resembling a match for Denver's star duo. But it's not that simple. The Panthers make it as difficult for edge rushers to impact games as any team in football by virtue of their imaginative, devastating rushing attack. It's not that the Panthers can't block Miller and Ware; it's that they may not need to whatsoever. 

 

Quote

All of this is even before getting to the running plays that don't involve Newton whatsoever. Shula is equally creative with those concepts. Sure, the Panthers will run inside and outside zone, power, counter and trap plays. Versatility in personnel and in blockers allows the Panthers to overwhelm defenses conceptually. They'll fire in the motion for a jet sweep two or three times in a possession, never hand it off to the wide receiver, and come back to it later in the game. Shula will dial up a running play that mirrors the blocking from an earlier play before twisting it in a totally different direction as you over-pursue. Carolina screws with your run fits, stretches you horizontally and then gashes you vertically.

What this all does is paralyze the front seven of the opposing defense. Watch tape of the Panthers this season and you'll see edge rushers who seem to freeze every time Carolina is in the shotgun, trying to tiptoe in three directions at once as they follow the various fakes and motion en route to actually locating the football. When they get too aggressive, the Panthers have enough discipline and ballhandling ability to run into vacated lanes. And when the defense gets too conservative and waits to read and react, Carolina is too quick and plows forward for chunks of yardage.

 

Quote

The truth is that the Broncos aren't an especially great fit for this Panthers offense. You'd want a defense who can stand up in short-yardage situations, and the Broncos are the second worst short-yardage run defense in the league, ahead of only Carolina. (Remember that when the camera pans over to Riverboat Ron before a fourth-and-short.) If you wanted to construct a defense that was designed to stop Carolina, you'd want penetrating interior linemen who could blow up plays in the backfield, rangy inside linebackers who could run with Newton and tight end Greg Olsen, and safeties who weren't going to get burned deep.

That isn't Denver.

 

Quote

The strength of schedule argument also looks to be flipped on its head. The Panthers have faced a pair of top-five defenses in the Seahawks and Cardinals during the postseason and come away looking awful impressive. The far more obvious mismatch is the second-ranked Panthers defense against a Broncos offense that ranks just 25th in DVOA. To overcome that, the Broncos will need to hope for a different sort of game altogether.

Barnwell also goes into detail about the mismatch between the Panthers defense vs the Broncos offense. The Broncos have the 23rd ranked pass protection and 21st ranked run blocking (per PFF). Basically, our DTs have the potential to dominate.

[Cary Kollins]

[ctrcat]

Tick tock tick tock tick tock

Longest week of my life

[hepcat]

Finally someone speaking the truth, although I think quietly all analysts know the Panthers are going to destroy the Broncos, they need to make it appear that it'll be a close game so that people will at least watch until the halftime show.

[Cary Kollins]

This is the kind of Super Bowl coverage worth reading. A diamond in the fuggin rough.

 

 

[Jangler]

[pantherking15]

5 minutes ago, hepcat said:

Finally someone speaking the truth, although I think quietly all analysts know the Panthers are going to destroy the Broncos, they need to make it appear that it'll be a close game so that people will at least watch until the halftime show.

Basically, the people who actually know football (Greg Cosell, Brian Billick, Bill Barnwell, etc.) are telling it like it is. The "analysts" and former players on ESPN, NFL Network, etc. are repeating the same uninformed/misleading talking points to generate hype, which is understandable.

[caatfan]

I like how Billy Boy Barnwell thinks. 

This team should not be as good as it is on offense. The consensus was that Cam and Shula didn't have what it takes to put up all those points. Lucky for us the consensus was wrong.

[Cary Kollins]

Geez, this is an excellent article.

Quote

. Sure, the Panthers will run inside and outside zone, power, counter and trap plays. Versatility in personnel and in blockers allows the Panthers to overwhelm defenses conceptually. They'll fire in the motion for a jet sweep two or three times in a possession, never hand it off to the wide receiver, and come back to it later in the game. Shula will dial up a running play that mirrors the blocking from an earlier play before twisting it in a totally different direction as you over-pursue. Carolina screws with your run fits, stretches you horizontally and then gashes you vertically.

 

 

No lie, I was fuggin up people in Madden '13 doing these same things. I'm glad Shula has finally caught up.

[hepcat]

2 minutes ago, pantherking15 said:

Basically, the people who actually know football (Greg Cosell, Brian Billick, Bill Barnwell, etc.) are telling it like it is. The "analysts" and former players on ESPN, NFL Network, etc. are repeating the same uninformed/misleading talking points to generate hype, which is understandable.

Yea, you gotta know that those ESPN and NFL Network guys are given scripts to read and storylines to plug.  They need to generate hype like you said.  If this game is even close, I'd be surprised.  The Broncos were probably the best matchup from the AFC they could have hoped for honestly.

[pantherking15]

Quote

If you wanted to construct a defense that was designed to stop Carolina, you'd want penetrating interior linemen who could blow up plays in the backfield, rangy inside linebackers who could run with Newton and tight end Greg Olsen, and safeties who weren't going to get burned deep.

Haha, this is the Panthers defense. The Panthers offense gets to practice vs the perfect defense designed to stop them.

[d-dave]

But...but...but...Payton Manning, experience, beating Tom Brady....Von Miller?

=)  This is the kind of stuff that we've seen from our team, and what gives us confidence! =)

[the butch]

Barnwell has been one of my favorite writers for some time now. Nonsports-related, he wrote an excellent article on his weight loss. 

[CatMan72]

Great article, the real football people know how ugly this could get for the Broncos. 

I've been telling anyone that would listen how favorable this matchup is for us. That doesn't guarantee a win, but the Broncos will have to play the game of their lives while we just have to play the way we've been playing all season to secure the win. 

Everyone is focused on our offense vs. their defense, nobody is talking about our defense vs. their offense and that's the matchup that is most likely to decide this game (in our favor).