Comparative rankings of DEs acoss various Big Boards (Consensus Top 20 DEs)

[KB_fan]

8 minutes ago, Captain Morgan said:

KB, if Fanspeak does like last year, they will a choice for "consensus" to the list of choices to use as the big board...probably just a few days a way.  

LOL.  NOW I find this out!  Oy!

Thanks.  good to know.

[KB_fan]

Hey all,

starting tomorrow, I'm gonna be mostly off the boards for 2 weeks.  Traveling for work, leading a couple of seminars, and writing two annual reports....

Before I vanish for awhile, anyone want to give feedback on whether this consensus table I did was helpful?

Sounds like Fanspeak might have something similar online soon, but do folks want me to post consensus rankings here or does it just make your eyes glaze over?

No promises to do anything until after Easter (March 27th).  But if you're interested, let me know so I can plan ahead to devote some time to pull these types of tables together.

[KB_fan]

Now the fun begins....

The reason I put the effort into developing that consensus list of top DEs was to give myself a tracking list to be able to work from during Mock Drafts - to permit tracking which of the top players will be available when we pick.

So, I've now just done 7 1 round drafts at Fanspeak this a.m. using the 7 different most recent boards.  For each, I noted which of the consensus top 10 DEs would be available for our pick at #30.  Here are the results:

Unless Gettleman is willing to trade up, you can kiss Bosa / Buckner / Lawson / Spence goodbye.  Generally all four of them are gone by pick 12 - 15.

Bullard, Dodd and Ogbah are very interesting to track.  They are almost certainly the 3 best DEs that would still be available when we draft in round 1.  Bullard was available 4 times, Dodd & Ogbah 3 times each.  In 3 of the 7 drafts, two of those 3 were both available, but the majority of cases, only one of those 3 were there.  So far, there has not been a draft where NONE of those 3 were there.   If we are ok with taking ANY of these 3 players at #30, it looks pretty likely that we can get one of them, but it's not a sure thing.  On average 6 of the top 10 DEs are being picked by the teams at 1 - 29.  Given the price being paid for good DEs, if just one more team picks a DE before us, we could be in a situation where none of these 3 are available. 

Of the final three DEs in the top 10 consensus list:  Calhoun / Nassib / Kaufusi,  are all quite likely to be available.  In 6 of 7 drafts, all 3 were still available.  However, from what I've been reading, I think most here would probably not consider Calhoun, Nassib or Kaufusi worthy of being picked at #30 (i.e. they would not be BPA at 30, we would probably go with some other position, because if all the other 7 DEs ahead of them were gone, other very good players that would have fallen).  However, if we do like any of these 3 guys, based on these 7 drafts, we could almost certainly pick one of them.

I've not yet done a new set of 2 round drafts, but my sense is that Calhoun and Nassib would likely go before our pick in round 2, while Kaufusi would quite probably still be available.   Pretty much to get a top 10 DE, we will have to pick a DE in the first, or trade up in the 2nd.

[Mr. Scot]

On 3/11/2016 at 9:33 AM, shaqattaq said:

So if BPA in the first is not a DE, there is very real chance that G-man could trade up and still land Nassib (who I like) in the second. Some boards have him dropping to the 3rd, but I doubt he'll be on the board at 62.

Gettleman has shown that he's quite willing to trade up for a guy he wants.

And while I'm here, big kudos to KBF for the work she's done.

[KB_fan]

Here are the DEs that could be available for us to pick in round 2 without trading up.

Of the top 14 consensus DEs, the bottom 5 are pretty consistently available late in the 2nd round.  Rankings for some of these DEs vary quite widely by different boards.  Several would generally have round 3 grades and could be available to us in that round.

Basically Kaufusi and Correa or the DEs ranked below them could have a good chance of being available when we pick in Round 2:  Generally 5 - 7 of these top 14 DEs were taken in Round 1 and another 3 - 4 in round 2.

 

You all will now get a break from my spreadsheets and comments for awhile.  I'll be traveling for work most of the coming week and busy writing two major reports....

Towards the end of March I'll try to resume this exercise looking at the consensus rankings and potential draft availability for different position groups.

[MHS831]

On 3/11/2016 at 8:00 AM, KB_fan said:

This is my first year paying any attention at all to various pre-draft rankings of prospects or playing around with draft simulators.  I've enjoyed playing with the "On the Clock" simulator at Fanspeak. ( fanspeak.com/ontheclock/ )  It's been a fun way to learn about various players who could be Panthers' draft prospects.

One thing that's surprised me as I've done a bunch of mock drafts, is how divergent some of the player rankings are.  Just looking at the DEs, for instance.  One board has Shaq Lawson ranked 4th, another 40th.  Or Carl Nassib.  One board has him ranked 30th, another at 106.

There are 8 draft boards included at Fanspeak, 7 of which have been updated in the last week following the Combine:

1. Fanspeak 3/8
2. Drafttek 3/10
3. CBS 3/4
4. Matt Miller  3/10
5. Walter Football 3/10
6. Jeff Risdon 3/10
7. NFL Mock  3/10

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to try and come up with something of a "consensus" Big Board for various positions, comparing these draft boards.  I started with DE since I think that's a position many Huddlers are extremely interested in.  I compiled the top 20 DEs from each draft board* (see note at bottom if you want to know how to do this) and then I sorted and compared the lists, coming up with an average ranking for all of the players. 

Here's what I found for DE.  There were a total of 34 players ranked among the top 20 DEs by various boards.  For 22 of those there was high consensus (included on at least 3 boards).  For 12 others they were outliers, included in the top 20 DEs for just 1 or 2 boards.

Here's the consensus listing:

Not all boards identify a player at the same position.  Some boards may list a player as a DE, others as a DT or an OLB.  That's why even for some of the top players, not all 7 draft boards included a player.

 

*Note:  For those who might want to do these types of comparisons yourself, here are a few tips.  Choose Tennessee as the team you're drafting for, so that you'll have the #1 pick, preventing the simulator from running.  The entire draft board will then come up when the simulator starts.  You can select different positions to look at.  Click on DE, you then get a list of all the DEs in order of their ranking on that draft board), etc.

First of all, Thanks KB--as usual, you give this board integrity and quality content.  Aside from the obvious Dodd/Ogbah speculation, I think there are 2 players who are available later in the draft that fit the Panther profile.  However, seeing that we have 3 developing DEs (not including Ealy) we may not take a DE after the second round.  Nonetheless, I love digging in the bargain bins of the draft, so here goes:

First, if we don't take a DE in the first, I am intrigued by Nassib.  If he were to slip to the second round, I wold consider him.  His upside is through the roof (Like Dodd).   He has ah motor. Reminds me of Mike Rucker.

Second, much later in the draft, I really like Stanford's Shittu.  I actually chatted with him for 5 minutes or so on Stanford's campus in November. He was standing outside the buses (going to the airport to visit Colorado).  I was presenting at an Education conference and was just walking to kill time, and he was there, so I introduced myself.  I did not know who he was--class act.  He said that he played up and down the defensive line and he admitted that he would be underrated in the draft because he was  bit shorter than the traditional DE.  Then David Shaw came up to us, introduced himself, and he said that Shittu would be a good fit for Carolina.  He mentioned his work ethic, character, and versatility.  I think he could be right. Watched his highlights and wonder if he is what we need, but he could add 20 lbs and be a DT.