More fun with Panthers rookie database.... Comparing Fox and Rivera

[KB_fan]

Ready to call it a night and shut down the computer, but before I do, one last post from me.  I forgot that a few days ago I tweeted a table with some of the rookie AV data year by year.

The years highlighted in light blue are, of course, Panthers' winning seasons.

In the middle column, the blue highlighting shows seasons where the average AV per rookie on the roster was at or above average.  (Rivera is 5/5).  The far right column shows all the rookies' AVs as a % of total roster AV.

[Example for 2015:  Total rookie AV = 16.   Total roster AV = 256.  16 / 256 = 6.3% rookie AV % of total AV]

You might note that rookie AV as a % of total AV tends to be lower in winning seasons...., especially

1996:  5.6% rookie AV %

2005: 2.0 rookie AV %

2015: 6.3 rookie AV %

I posted something similar about rookies and team wins last summer when I was looking at % of rookies on the roster each Panthers season.  (I didn't know anything about the "AV" metric back then though...)  As part of last summer's research I had looked at all NFL teams in 2014 and compared wins and the % of rookie starts.  It was pretty clear that the teams with the most wins tended to have fewer games started by rookies...

[KB_fan]

4 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Anyone want to try and take a crack at guessing Panthers' top 8 rookies in terms of their AV rating in their rookie season?

I'll give you a hint.  #1 was #1.... no surprise there!

But there were a few names in those top 8 that really surprised me.

I'll post the answer - a table of top rookies by AV - here in a few hours.

 

4 hours ago, imminent rogaine said:

Keary Colbert, Manning Jr, Gamble, Peppers, Benjamin, Turner, Lotulelei

Thanks for guessing @imminent rogaine

Here's the top 8 Panthers rookie seasons as measured by PFR's AV metric.  By no means the only way to measure rookie talent, of course...  I was very surprise by this list.  Amini?!?!  And two guys I'd never heard of since I never followed the Panthers back then.  Lester Towns (who had two good seasons: 2000, 2001) and Chris Terry. 

Interesting that 5 of the 8 were under Rivera, and 3 of the 8 are LBs.

Year	Player	Age	Pos	Games	Starts	AV	Draft	Coach
2011	Cam Newton*	22	QB	16	16	19	1 / 1	Rivera
2007	Jon Beason	22	LB	16	16	9	1 / 25	Fox
2012	Luke Kuechly	21	LB	16	16	9	1 / 9	Rivera
2013	Star Lotulelei	24	DT	16	16	9	1 / 14	Rivera
1999	Chris Terry	24	OL	16	16	8	2 / 34	Siefert
2000	Lester Towns	23	LB	16	14	8	7 / 221	Siefert
2012	Amini Silatolu	24	OL	15	15	8	2 / 40	Rivera
2014	Kelvin Benjamin	23	WR	16	15	8	1 / 28	Rivera

 

[KB_fan]

Here's the "next best tier" of rookies ranked by AV - the players with rookie season AV of 6 or 7.  A lot of well known names here...  I was pretty shocked to see Byron Bell appear though!!!!

A few of the guys you maybe think should be there (Steve Smith, Dan Morgan, DeAngelo), are in the next group of rookies with an AV of 5 in their rookie season.

WOW.  That means Devin Funchess, Shaq Thompson & Trai Turner (all of whom had rookie season AVs of 5) are in the company of Steve Smith, DLo, Kris Jenkins...  I'd be very happy if Funchess had a career to equal Agent 89!

[ladypanther]

My take has been that Ron & Co. are better teachers and are better at developing talent.  I always thought that Foxy had a way of under-utilizing the talent he had.

Ron has become a hell of a coach.

Ron also now has The Boss looking for talent. That combo will serve us well for many years.

[ladypanther]

Amazing stuff KB!!!!

[bababoey]

Fox never trusted young guys.  Fox and Hurney would sign a guy at a position in the offseason and then draft another guy at the same position and then cut the guy they drafted after training camp.  They did that all the time.  They once cut a guy they drafted in the 3rd round after his 1st training camp.  You ever wondered why Fox could never get back to back winning seasons?  That was why.