Week 1: Panthers Loss to Denver - Post-game stats & analysis

[KB_fan]

Billy M often has some really nice post-game GIFs and breakdowns.  Here's one:

Here's another nice highlight GIF via Twitter:

 

[KB_fan]

And for a few lowlight GIFs:

 

[KB_fan]

Inside the Pylon analyzes Graham Gano's missed FG:

 

[KB_fan]

Football Outsiders has a good post-game write up in their "Clutch Encounters" series:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2016/clutch-encounters-car-den

I hadn't really thought about how similar this game was to many of Denver's 2015 games.  They are really becoming a team that can pull off come-back wins:

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After waiting seven long months for the 2016 season to begin, we were treated to an entertaining game you could have pulled right out of Denver's 2015 film vault. There were three early turnovers, all coming inside the Carolina 30. The Broncos had three comeback wins from a double-digit deficit in 2015, and trailed 17-7 at halftime here. Before you knew it, C.J. Anderson was breaking long runs, the defense made a highlight-worthy interception, and Denver had rallied back to take the lead. Even when it looked like defeat was imminent, the defense stood tall and the Broncos caught a break on a missed field goal with four seconds left in the 21-20 win.

What a season opener, but it could have fit anywhere in Denver's 2015 Super Bowl journey. Last year the Broncos led the NFL with six fourth-quarter comebacks and/or game-winning drives in the regular season before adding a seventh in the playoffs against Pittsburgh. Historically, teams with six such wins in a season win 66.7 percent of their game-winning drive opportunities, but only 40.0 percent in the following season.

 

 

Much of their analysis re: Carolina focuses on the inefficiency of our final drive...  but it turns out the Denver D is EXCEPTIONAL in their ability to close out games when holding a one-score lead in the 4th:

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This is the fourth time in his career that Gano missed a probable game-winning field goal in a game his team lost. While not an easy kick, it is one he is expected to make in that situation. It is just hard to believe that the Panthers needed nearly three full minutes to move the ball a whopping 28 yards. The offense should have been able to get closer with all of that time.

Credit the Denver pass rush for creating a lot of wasted time for Carolina. Since 2012, the Broncos are 30-5 (.857) when holding a one-score lead in the fourth quarter or overtime. In the five losses, the game-winning drives only traveled a combined 71 yards as the defense was usually put on short fields because of mistakes on offense or special teams. In the 30 wins, Denver came away with 19 turnovers, the most in the league in this situation over that time. Save for that one moment involving Rahim Moore and Jacoby Jones, this defense closes in ridiculous fashion, but last night was the first time it needed the other team to miss a field goal at the end to get the win.

 

 

[KB_fan]

Andy Guyader, a Ravens fan and football analyst, who has an interesting football analytics website called TheQ5.com was very quick in posting his "game at a glance" visualization.   It's taken me awhile to get used to these, and sometimes it feels like too much info in one graphic, but see what you think.  I like the idea....:

 

[KB_fan]

While most of us were only focusing on the matter of all the hits to Cam's head in the immediate aftermath of the game, Jeremy quickly posted one of the first game review / analysis pieces focusing on our defense's breakdown against the run:

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/2016/09/09/carolina-panthers-lose/

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As with any loss, this one has shown us things that need to be fixed. The most glaring of which was the run defense.

 

The one thing we knew we could count on this season was the stout run defense of the Carolina Panthers, right? I mean, the run defense returned all starters. They infused a first round rookie defensive tackle for depth. On paper, they are a better group than last season. Apparently, paper does not win football games.

As it turns out, the run defense had one of its worst showings in recent memory. CJ Anderson ran for 92 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts. The Panthers even allowed a rookie fullback to gash them for a touchdown almost untouched. A rookie fullback? Really?

 

One possible explanation for the lapse in defensive run stopping would be the unavailability of any film that the Denver Broncos may be leaning towards. The Panthers were facing an offense and a QB that was a complete unknown. This would be the most simple explanation, and thus probably the most correct one.

 

 

[KB_fan]

A couple more miscellaneous stats tweets posted immediately following the game:

 

[motocross_cat]

We have got to find ways to get shaq out there.

 

Also, op needs to lay off the uppers.

[KB_fan]

A bit of helpful perspective....:

That should read 0-2 against the Broncos AND 22-2 against the rest of the NFL

[KB_fan]

On that note I'll close for tonight...  Lots more to come in the next couple of days.

[CarolinaJami']

Run defense was troublesome. Can you somehow track how much if any our tackling improved in the past years from game 1-game 16? That would be interesting to see. Or maybe just start tracking it this year. I suspect since they don't go full out with two a days during training camp anymore, that would result in poor tackling in the beginning of the season. Hopefully that will get better as the season goes along.

[TheSpecialJuan]

I nominate this thread as the best thread so far this season. Thanks for your hard work.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Looking inside the game book for the Panthers season opening loss to the Broncos here some key stats to digest.

3rd Down Completion percentage

Panthers: 9/15, 60%

Broncos: 5/10, 50%

Both teams played surprising well on 3rd down given the supposed toughness of both defenses.

AVG Gain per Offensive Play

Panthers: 4.9 yards

Broncos: 5.4 yards

The Panthers ran more plays (68 to 54) and won the time of possession (32:19 to 27:41) but the Broncos were more efficient per play.

Red Zone Efficiency

Panthers: 2 for 3, 67%

Broncos: 1 for 2, 50%

Once either team was able to drive into the red zone they capitalized for the most part.

 

Turnovers and Sacks

Panthers: 1 INT, 2 sacks

Broncos: 2 INTs, 1 Fumble, 3 sacks

So up to this point the stats were very close. Even the QB stats were close which is where we thought there would be a big disparity between the reining NFL MVP and a 2nd year player getting his first start.

Both teams were able to turn a turnover into a TD while the two extra the Panthers forced were to stop Bronco drives into Panther territory. You could argue the Bronco INT was the turning point of the game as it occurred deep in Panther territory and gave the Broncos the lead.

 

Penalties

Panthers: 8 for 85 yards

Broncos: 4 for 22 yards

Here is where we see a big disparity, especially when you consider all the hits on Newton’s head that weren’t called. Those are big penalties too. Now I’ve heard the Bronco complaints about holding calls not being called. Well those go both ways as I saw plenty on the Broncos that weren’t called either. What was equal is the hits on the QB being called, hits that can affect a players play going forward, hits that can easily knock a player out of a game. We’ve talked plenty about this topic so I’ll leave it there.

Bottom Line: It’s hard to look at the stats and think the Panthers deserved to lose this game. In spite of all the adversity playing against a prolific Broncos defense and the refs not doing their job they still should have pulled it out....Oh No Gano!

Snap Counts

Offense Total Snaps: 73

The entire o-line plus Newton and TE Greg Olsen played 100% of the snaps. No surprise there. KB only got 52 snaps while Philly Brown (39) and Devin Funchess (38) saw at least 50% of the snaps (though much fewer targets).

Defense total Snaps: 58

As I predicted CB Bene Benwikere started over Darryl Worley and saw 95% of the snaps (55). Worley played exclusively on special teams.

Kurt Coleman, Luke Kuechly, Tre Boston and Thomas Davis all played 100% of the snaps.

The DTs saw the kind of rotation we are used to: Short (41) , Lotulelei (38), Butler (23) and Soliai (19). I like what I saw from the rookie in his limited play (40%).

The DEs saw a similar breakdown between the starters and back-ups. Addison logged a tackle but Delaire didn’t log a stat in 21 snaps.

http://www.derp/2016/9/10/12871134/panthers-20-broncos-21---inside-the-gamebook

[CPantherKing]

3 hours ago, CarolinaJami' said:

Run defense was troublesome. Can you somehow track how much if any our tackling improved in the past years from game 1-game 16? That would be interesting to see. Or maybe just start tracking it this year. I suspect since they don't go full out with two a days during training camp anymore, that would result in poor tackling in the beginning of the season. Hopefully that will get better as the season goes along.

Yards per carry should work on a game by game basis. Missed tackles will lead to extra yards. This would also take into account missing assignments like Bene allowing the FB to run right by him.

Here is a quick chart and some data regarding opponents YPC from week to week.

In 2013, the Panthers had that great defense. You can see how tight they kept the YPC while remaining under the league average for most of the season. It is interesting pattern with the run defense tightening up in mid November and falling off right before Christmas.

 

There seems to be a pattern that I would attribute to coaching emphasis on the run defense every time they allow more than 5 YPC. It would be interesting if there was a correlation between noticeable missed tackles and allowing more than 5 yards per carry. I believe this would most likely prove true.

 

The Panthers gave up 5.1 YPC to the Broncos. That is above the league average. I would imagine the emphasis on the run defense by the coaches will drop the YPC below the league average for the next couple weeks.

Hope this helps. Enjoy the games.