Why the Panthers scoring struggles aren't as bad as they appear on the surface

[LinvilleGorge]

Sorry,  folks. 26th in yardage, 29th in points. Those are very similar rankings. We're scoring points at about the rate you'd expect given our yardage vs. the rest of the league. There is no big discrepancy there. Our offensive woes are far more wide reaching than just redzone struggles. 

[redbuddha]

Nice job rookie on your first post 

[Hoenheim]

33 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

good luck trying to inject any positivity in this joint.

most these people love seeing the team fail for some odd reason. even when you back up points with evidence they shun you for not going with the negative groupthink.

no wonder lots of good posters don't come around here anymore. too many trolls and doomsday kids over a 2-1 season who'd love nothing more than the panthers to be blown out every single game from henceforth.

If we do really well against the Patriots , win or lose alot of people will be alot happier just to even see if our offense can put up 30 or 40 something points. Or if Ron / Shula makes more agressive playcalls, we win the turnover battle, get sacks, Kalil plays alot better, Cam dont have any picks or completion percentage goes up.. 

Just because people get down about the team sometimes dont mean there always like that. I think it means we care about it so much its just very frustrating to see your team struggle offensively game after game even against bad defenses. If the same happens against the Patriots defense which is supposedly not great either, then  prepare for even more negativity because its not going to get easier from this game onwards and we'll be playing better defenses than we seen in the first 1/4 of the season. 

[ReekRhymesWithFleek]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Sorry,  folks. 26th in yardage, 29th in points. Those are very similar rankings. We're scoring points at about the rate you'd expect given our yardage vs. the rest of the league. There is no big discrepancy there. Our offensive woes are far more wide reaching than just redzone struggles. 

Nobody has said that the offense has been great, or even average. Just saying that it's not time to act like the sky is falling and there are reasons beyond Cam's hopefully improving health to be positive that Carolina can score enough points to win games. 

And it's not a coincidence that the Panthers' best scoring game came against San Francisco when the defense forced two turnovers and created short fields for the offense. They were 1/3 in the red zone that game so, like the original post said, more than just red zone performance to point to. 

[iamhubby1]

12 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Sorry,  folks. 26th in yardage, 29th in points. Those are very similar rankings. We're scoring points at about the rate you'd expect given our yardage vs. the rest of the league. There is no big discrepancy there. Our offensive woes are far more wide reaching than just redzone struggles. 

 

    Except, that's not what he was talking about. We are below average in Turn Overs, and Red Zone Efficiency. We pick those back up to league average, or better. And we will score more points. It's that simple and plain.

[iamhubby1]

47 minutes ago, KillerKat said:

Sorry, there's no spin that can be done here. Shula sucks. Our coaches suck. And in turn our offense sucks.

 

    It is tough to argue against hard hitting analysis such as this.

[Still Brooklyn]

1 hour ago, ReekRhymesWithFleek said:

"Give actual data." Lol half the post is data! 

Again, you use "if". Half your numbers are what things would have been "if" the Panthers had done so and so. Will hell, if Tyrod Taylor had run for 80 more yds, we'd have lost. Actual data means tell us what we've done. After today's game with the Pats, tell us if we've improved or declined from said numbers. That's all that mattersc ... what is ... not what could be.

[LinvilleGorge]

8 minutes ago, iamhubby1 said:

 

    Except, that's not what he was talking about. We are below average in Turn Overs, and Red Zone Efficiency. We pick those back up to league average, or better. And we will score more points. It's that simple and plain.

Except that yes, that is what he was talking about. If a team is moving the ball well and not scoring because of red zone struggles then there will be a significant discrepancy between yardage and points. You don't see that with our stats right now. Being below average in redzone efficiency is irrelevant. Pick an offensive category. There's a damn good chance we're below average in it. That tends to be the case when you've been one of the worst offenses in the league. 

I expect the defense to force more turnovers, but the reality is that our offense has plain sucked. We've sucked at gaining yards and we've sucked at scoring points. If we're reliant on turnovers in order to score points, then we're probably not going to win many football games. 

[iamhubby1]

4 minutes ago, Still Brooklyn said:

Again, you use "if". Half your numbers are what things would have been "if" the Panthers had done so and so. Will hell, if Tyrod Taylor had run for 80 more yds, we'd have lost. Actual data means tell us what we've done. After today's game with the Pats, tell us if we've improved or declined from said numbers. That's all that mattersc ... what is ... not what could be.

 

    Okay, how about this? For the last 3 years. We have been above average in Red Zone Efficiency, and Turn Overs. When we return to that level, and there is no reason to believe we can't. We will score more points. 

 

    That's not a "What if", it is a "When".

[ReekRhymesWithFleek]

1 minute ago, Still Brooklyn said:

Again, you use "if". Half your numbers are what things would have been "if" the Panthers had done so and so. Will hell, if Tyrod Taylor had run for 80 more yds, we'd have lost. Actual data means tell us what we've done. After today's game with the Pats, tell us if we've improved or declined from said numbers. That's all that mattersc ... what is ... not what could be.

I cited lots of "actual data" bud. That "actual data" shows that it's extremely unlikely Carolina continues to struggle in the red zone at the current rate and extremely unlikely Carolina continues to force turnovers at the low rate they currently are. The Panthers have played 3 games so far, too small of a sample size to base too many conclusions on. That's why it's illuminating to cite "actual data" from years past. Or do you think the Panthers will set a record for red zone futility and be the worst team in the league at forcing turnovers? 

[iamhubby1]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Except that yes, that is what he was talking about. If a team is moving the ball well and not scoring because of red zone struggles then there will be a significant discrepancy between yardage and points. You don't see that with our stats right now. Being below average in redzone efficiency is irrelevant. Pick an offensive category. There's a damn good chance we're below average in it. That tends to be the case when you've been one of the worst offenses in the league. 

I expect the defense to force more turnovers, but the reality is that our offense has plain sucked. We've sucked at gaining yards and we've sucked at scoring points. If we're reliant on turnovers in order to score points, then we're probably not going to win many football games. 

 

    You may want to read the OP again. It talks about two points. Red Zone Efficiency, and Turn Overs. You are the one bringing in Total Yards in regards to Points. 

 

    In the last 3 years, we have been above average in those two areas. Expecting us to return to those levels is a rational belief. Whether you admit it or not, we very well could return to previous levels. And if we do. We score more points.

 

    So, because we are struggling, there is no reason to think we can improve? 

 

    

[LinvilleGorge]

28 minutes ago, iamhubby1 said:

 

[iamhubby1]

11 minutes ago, ReekRhymesWithFleek said:

I cited lots of "actual data" bud. That "actual data" shows that it's extremely unlikely Carolina continues to struggle in the red zone at the current rate and extremely unlikely Carolina continues to force turnovers at the low rate they currently are. The Panthers have played 3 games so far, too small of a sample size to base too many conclusions on. That's why it's illuminating to cite "actual data" from years past. Or do you think the Panthers will set a record for red zone futility and be the worst team in the league at forcing turnovers? 

 

    I actually believe that these two are not going agree that there is a chance we will improve as a team. That we are who we are, and it ain't gettin no better. 

 

    I thought it was great information. I knew our Red Zone Efficiency was down, and I knew we weren't causing Turn Overs. But I hadn't put the two together. Better efficiency, with more TOs, and we SHOULD score more points. Sounds simple enough.

[LinvilleGorge]

This is why I wish that people who didn't understand statistics wouldn't try to discuss statistics. 

No one is disputing that we're below average in redzone efficiency. We're one of the worst offenses in the league. We're probably below average in damn near every offensive statistical category you can come up with. 

The bottom line is that we're below average in the redzone as well as outside the redzone. That's why we're close to last both in yardage and scoring. I really don't see how this is difficult to comprehend. 

You're trying to cherry pick the stats and come up with an easy fix. Hey, if we can just force a ton of turnovers and be super efficient in the rezone then we can be a decent offense! Hate to break it to you, but redzone efficiency will generally echo overall offensive efficiency. Offense gets tougher in the redzone as the defense has less field to have to cover. It's rare to find an offense that struggles to move the ball overall that suddenly becomes efficient in the redzone.