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Looking on the bright side ...

E CaT PanTHer

By E CaT PanTHer,
in Carolina Panthers

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2010/12/11/stanford-football-luck-talks-nfl-draft/

Read between the lines. He is just being humble. He doesn't want to end the party early--until after the bowl. He never rules out going pro, so why are people getting their panties in a wad over Harbaugh's comments? A few points:

1. Harbaugh has to say what he said in the event he returns to Stanford. He wants Luck there, and Stanford is his safety net. If it sounds like he will be there with Luck next season, Michigan will have to pay more to lure him away. If they know Luck is going NFL, he has a weaker safety net.

2. Sabin at Alabama advised his players to stay in school until the CBA is done. This applies only to the players who are not going to be drafted in the top 15. Would anyone advise a player who is locked into the number one position to wait until next year? Stanford University is going to be there--in the springtime and summers. He can finish his degree in two-three years and still make $50 million. Win Win. This is not a problem that cannot be resolved.

3. Right now there is a bit of posturing going on. Don't forget, however, Luck is a competitor and not businessman. He is one spinal injury away from life-long poverty. I think he realizes that the Orange Bowl is as good as it gets at Stanford, and he will elect to leave college on top and enter the NFL as #1.

4. I would be shocked if he returned to school, and consider it one of the dumbest decisions I have ever heard. He is ready to start in the NFL right now, so there is not a greater possiblility of busting if he comes out early. There are only a number of years, 12 or so, where he will be able to make money in the NFL as a player.

5. Finally, Harbaugh has not signed his deal at Stanford, which suggests that he is leaving. Luck knows Stanford will not be the same without him. Besides, Stanford is losing a few key players to the NFL as well, so they will probably not be the same team.

6. Not coming out could cost Luck millions. First, the year he did not play. Imagine that is $3 million. Second, if he drops to the middle of the first round due to an inferior supporting cast or a down year, it could be $10 million more. Finally, he could be injured. That could cost him $100 million over the course of a career.

I give Luck a 90% chance of declaring for the draft by Jan 15.

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mwright350 Rising Star

mwright350

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I think it's going to come down to the number of players Stanford is losing / has lost and I think based on that he'll declare.

The most likely reason for him to stay in is a run at at Heisman or a championship. It's unlikely (though not impossible) that they'll be near the top of the BCS again next year (especially if Harbaugh leaves, who has the same considerations) so that just leaves the trophy.

We can't predict anything and it's still a very real possibility he stays put but I think the odds are he comes out.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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I think it's going to come down to the number of players Stanford is losing / has lost and I think based on that he'll declare.

The most likely reason for him to stay in is a run at at Heisman or a championship. It's unlikely (though not impossible) that they'll be near the top of the BCS again next year (especially if Harbaugh leaves, who has the same considerations) so that just leaves the trophy.

We can't predict anything and it's still a very real possibility he stays put but I think the odds are he comes out.

If they go 8-5 next year at Stanford, what are the odds that he wins the Heisman--besides, thanks to Reggie Bush and Cam Newton, the Heisman is not as glamorous as it used to be. It goes to the best offensive player on one of the top teams. You could throw for 400 yards a game and have a 120 QB rating and not get it if your team in not in a major bowl game. I don't lose millions and risk many more millions for a trophy.

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mwright350 Rising Star

mwright350

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If they go 8-5 next year at Stanford, what are the odds that he wins the Heisman--besides, thanks to Reggie Bush and Cam Newton, the Heisman is not as glamorous as it used to be. It goes to the best offensive player on one of the top teams. You could throw for 400 yards a game and have a 120 QB rating and not get it if your team in not in a major bowl game. I don't lose millions and risk many more millions for a trophy.

Oh I agree with you 100%, I'm just looking at possible reasons for him to stay. As far as I see it that's the only one he'll really have (realistically anyway - I really just can't fathom him staying in college and risking all that money for a degree he can finish while he's a player at a later date).

I don't think it will happen but the pessimist in me dwells on every possible reason why I might not get what I want.

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bigdog10 Experienced

bigdog10

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I'd have a hard time staying in school if there was a chance I could be the first pick and get somewhere near $30 million guaranteed.

What happens if Luck stays in school and tears an ACL, or messes up his shoulder? When you are a player in his position, you don't risk not getting that payday.

I'll go on record to say he definitely comes out.

Luck can come out and get paid, and finish his degree at a later date.

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