Bryce Young now leads the NFL in game-winning drives since his debut

[strato]

4 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

At a certain point, you have to let your eyes see what's happening on the field.  The nuance of everything going on in a football game is never going to be captured by analytics.  Too much information becomes noise.  But we're interested in the signal.

100%. Stats are just trying to communicate stuff to you that happened, and if you had seen it you probably wouldn’t need the stats so much.  They are cool for record keeping like we know that 448 was a team record.  
 

I said that in an earlier post, like if I watched Bryce play Sunday and the previous Sunday, I don’t need stats to tell me he was great in one game and horrible in the other.  

Edited 1 hour ago by strato

[strato]

9 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

No beef at all.  I agree with it. My point is several folks on here like to say he didn't deserve this win or that win because somebody else did all the work.

My point is, the criteria is set and if he is the QB of record when the GWD occurs he gets credit regardless of how much he had to do with it. 

The topic of GWD started about Bryce but for me, when I realized what it really was, it isn’t about Bryce any more it is about a bad use of statistics. 
You can flip it and say okey we know that x y and z games he took the team down and got the score with time running out. 
Another QB handed it off, early in the 4th quarter and got the same little gold star as Bryce did for what he did Sunday. 
 

It doesn’t have to be about discrediting Bryce. It could be about accurately crediting a player for what he did. I don’t see that it is doing that.  

[strato]

37 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

You are talking about purely last possession? That would be an extremely small amount and likely almost be exclusively GW FG drives. Outside the EXTREMELY rare walk off TD,  most of these scenarios involve the other team getting the ball back in some fashion(kickoff, last couple of plays, etc).

 

Yeah. It would be a smaller category. My beef it that it is not exclusive enough and isn’t equitable within its own qualifiers.  

4 minute offense. 2 minute.  However you frame it, those sorts of circumstances are tougher and it is a more impressive accomplishment. 
And we should have a way to designate them as such. On the other end of the spectrum, I think technically a QB could come in after a turnover and the ball at say, the opponents 40 YL. 1:50 left in the THIRD qtr, run a couple of handoffs and you are in FG range. And the 3rd qtr clock expires, now you are in the 4th qtr. maybe you take a shot down the sideline, incomplete. Kicker comes on, makes the kick. 
The score holds up through the end of the game and you win. 
That gets you a GWD. 
I just find it worthless. 
 

 

[kungfoodude]

13 minutes ago, strato said:

Yeah. It would be a smaller category. My beef it that it is not exclusive enough and isn’t equitable within its own qualifiers.  

4 minute offense. 2 minute.  However you frame it, those sorts of circumstances are tougher and it is a more impressive accomplishment. 
And we should have a way to designate them as such. On the other end of the spectrum, I think technically a QB could come in after a turnover and the ball at say, the opponents 40 YL. 1:50 left in the THIRD qtr, run a couple of handoffs and you are in FG range. And the 3rd qtr clock expires, now you are in the 4th qtr. maybe you take a shot down the sideline, incomplete. Kicker comes on, makes the kick. 
The score holds up through the end of the game and you win. 
That gets you a GWD. 
I just find it worthless. 
 

 

Eh...there are some times when they will throw up some more interesting versions. GWD within X amount of minutes left or whatever.

I think it's a fine stat but not worth reading into too much.

[Jon Snow]

1 hour ago, Khyber53 said:

There's a fair argument here.

And often, it isn't the QB that's at fault for the team being behind in the fourth quarter. Defenses play into it heavily. Heck, the opposing team plays into it very heavily, both in their offensive output and possibly their defense just petering out. 

It's an odd stat. Much like Atlanta having the #1 passing defense going into this past week's game. They had it greatly because teams were running so consistently against their defense that you didn't have to pass to beat them... at all. 

They knew going into Sunday that the Panthers would lean heavily on Rico and Chuba again, so they overplayed that aspect, again and again. And Bryce burned them badly. Epically. And by the time they and we had adjusted, momentum was turning against them.

Stats are just stats, they rarely tell the whole story truthfully. Nuance is the story, every time.

The stat itself is simply highlighting 1 aspect of any given game. It is only showing that the qb/team was behind and had to drive the field to score and win with littletime left. It doesn't take into account how the team got there only that they were behind. 

So in this case in all the wins that he managed to get he did it one the last drive and the defense held the lead. It doesn't account for how many time he could come back prior to that as those are L's he already hold.

[Jon Snow]

1 hour ago, strato said:

Yes they are. Everyone gets awarded the GWD based on the same standards. The qualifiers  

My beef is it just isn’t a good stat because the qualifiers are all over the place. 
You can get a GWD for essentially going three and out and the bringing on the kicker, at 11:58 in the 4th quarter.  
And it counts the same as you got the ball on your 25 with 2:18 left in the game and one timeout and orchestrated a perfect two minute drill ending in a TD or a kick as the clock ticked off the last seconds. 
 

Those are just not the same. They shouldn’t count the same. IMO.

And the only way to know that a guy’s GWD was the classic 2 minute drill for a last second kick, or if he came in after a turnover and handed it off a couple of times and the kicker came on with 12 minutes to go, and made the final margin, is to look at the drive charts.  

 

I pretty sure it doesn't consider getting a lead early in the 4th quarter and the defense never surrendering it. It should only be the last possession that leads to the winning score.

[strato]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I pretty sure it doesn't consider getting a lead early in the 4th quarter and the defense never surrendering it. It should only be the last possession that leads to the winning score.

I thought that too but no. And that is what got me started looking more closely at it  

Give this a look, it is from Pro Football Reference.com. 
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/comebacks.htm

———

A Game-Winning Drive (GWD) must involve these:

team must win game

team must, at some point, have possession of the ball tied or down by one score (1-8 points) in 4th quarter or OT

the offensive scoring drive must conclude in the 4th quarter or OT. It can begin in the 3rd quarter so long as scrimmage plays that are part of the drive are run in the 4th quarter. This means you can't kick a FG on 1st play of 4th quarter to take lead and have it count as GWD.

the scoring play to put the winning points on the board must be the result of an offensive drive  

——-

 

That page also has 4th qtr comeback which is different I haven’t looked at that yet. 

Edited 52 minutes ago by strato

[Jon Snow]

8 minutes ago, strato said:

I thought that too but no. And that is what got me started looking more closely at it  

Give this a look, it is from Pro Football Reference.com. 
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/comebacks.htm

———

A Game-Winning Drive (GWD) must involve these:

team must win game

team must, at some point, have possession of the ball tied or down by one score (1-8 points) in 4th quarter or OT

the offensive scoring drive must conclude in the 4th quarter or OT. It can begin in the 3rd quarter so long as scrimmage plays that are part of the drive are run in the 4th quarter. This means you can't kick a FG on 1st play of 4th quarter to take lead and have it count as GWD.

the scoring play to put the winning points on the board must be the result of an offensive

——-

This is the part I take issue with. But if it's applied equally to every qb then it's fair. But it becomes pointless if they apply a broad definition of what it means. In this instance every win is a comeback win if you have the lead going into the 4th quarter. 

Edited 45 minutes ago by Jon Snow

[kungfoodude]

13 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I pretty sure it doesn't consider getting a lead early in the 4th quarter and the defense never surrendering it. It should only be the last possession that leads to the winning score.

The criteria is:

GWD -- Game-winning drives led by quarterback.

Must be an offensive scoring drive in the 4th quarter or overtime that puts the winning team ahead for the last time.

[strato]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

The criteria is:

GWD -- Game-winning drives led by quarterback.

Must be an offensive scoring drive in the 4th quarter or overtime that puts the winning team ahead for the last time.

Right, nothing requiring it be the last possession. I went for the longest time thinking it was one thing but it isn’t.  

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

The criteria is:

GWD -- Game-winning drives led by quarterback.

Must be an offensive scoring drive in the 4th quarter or overtime that puts the winning team ahead for the last time.

I get that but it considers have the lead going into the 4th as a comeback. That i do not get.

[strato]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

This is the part I take issue with. But if it's applied equally to every qb then it's fair. But it becomes pointless if they apply a broad definition of what it means. In this instance every win in a comeback win if you have the lead going into the 4th quarter. 

It is fair, but it doesn’t tell us a lot. When one guy could hand off, and the other guy smoke a 2 minute drill, they get the same achievement. I hope for better. 

[Jon Snow]

Just now, strato said:

Right, nothing requiring it be the last possession. I went for the longest time thinking it was one thing but it isn’t.  

Thats what it should be. The last possession. I would even consider the defense having to defend you last score as a comeback, but only the last opposing teams possession. 

[strato]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I get that but it considers have the lead going into the 4th as a comeback. That i do not get.

I think if you have the lead going to the 4th and then lose the lead in tne 4th, and then come back, is how that would work. You have to be down in the 4th at some point.