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Run Threat Rate -- is this good?


PanthersATL
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From Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/nutshellsportz.bsky.social/post/3mo3rkrcezs2e 

A look at Run Threat Rate across the NFL

Run Threat Rate is the percentage of plays where a team either runs the ball or uses play action. This compares each team’s rate when leading or tied versus when trailing to show how much they abandon the run when playing from behind.


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Looks like we're fifth in running plays/play action plays when in the lead and about 10th in the league when we fall behind. 

The biggest thing I take from this is not that we drop off like that, because every team does, but that we drop off so much. A lot of the best teams don't  drop off much, depending on the game situation, preferring to stick to their game plan through out. Some of those are very good teams. Baltimore barely deviates from their run/action heavy plan. At the other end, KC also barely deviates, but they have one of the least run oriented attacks in the league by these stats.

On the other side, there are teams that make even bigger shifts (based on last year's performance) and they are teams that for various reasons found themselves in desperation attempts. Dallas, Atlanta, the Browns, Bucs and Bengals were all literally throwing out their game plans and trying to either lean on their top end QB or were just frantically trying to create something downfield.

Considering the years of us completely abandoning the run (oh those Matt Rhule days), maybe we are starting to stabilize. Don't even get me started on the Reich days...

 

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