How would YOU predict a QB's success?

[Cyberjag]

The thread on the new method to predict a college QB's success in the NFL got me thinking. How would you do it? What would you look at? Do you think it's all about the player, or would you add in other factors? Just senior year or body of work? Competition count? Etc...

[MHS831]

Instead of just makiing a list like Santa or the Uni-bomber, I think it is fair and approapriate to prioritize or weight the criteria.

However, it must be done in three areas: Personal, Physical, and Performance.

Personal

Character 20%

Work Ethic 30%

Leadership Qualities 30%

Intelligence 20%

Physical

Arm Strength 50%

Height 25%

Mobility 20%

Weight 5%

Performance

Reading Defenses/Vision (make right reads? check down? look off safeties?) 40%

Delivery (quickness, height) 25%

Success with each throw (Deep out, fade, slant, etc) 10%

Style of offense in college 5%

TD/Int comparison 5%

Pocket presence (sacks vs. throw aways) 5%

Command of 2 minute drill 5%

Completion percentage 5%

[Primetime 89]

Swagger - 136%

[MHS831]

Swagger - 136%

I should have thought of swagger.

[mav1234]

Looks - 150%

[The Total Package]

Stanzi highlights 2009:

[Swarly]

you don't rate accuracy as a physical attribute? :) it's the most important one!

[Cyberjag]

I was looking at Alex Smith's and Jason Campbell's stats in college, and it seems to me that each one has been doomed by having a new offensive coordinator every year. That almost has to be included in a success criteria somehow, doesn't it?

[Swarly]

I was looking at Alex Smith's and Jason Campbell's stats in college, and it seems to me that each one has been doomed by having a new offensive coordinator every year. That almost has to be included in a success criteria somehow, doesn't it?

actually stats in college is probably one of the least important factors when I'm predicting the success of a draft prospect.

edit: for some reason I feel like my grammar in that sentence is awful lol

[mav1234]

Do you mean from college to pro or from one pro team to another?

[Cyberjag]

College to pro

[antame]

Looks - 150%

Hahaha! You know, that might have something to do with it.

Obviously physical skills, confidence and general intelligence are important, but I would also offer situational humility. Joe Montana said, paraphrasing, "[as a QB] if you can run for 7 yards without taking a hit, do it."

[Mr. Scot]

I know this won't be popular to say, but Real Deal has it right when he talks about looking for skills that translate into the NFL. That's a pretty good indicator.

Truth be told, the scouting process can be a little pessimistic.

Good stats generally don't mean much (especially in QB friendly systems) but bad stats can be a red flag. Pro-style offense helps but isn't a guarantee of success, while lack of pro-style experience generally means a prospect will need more transition time than others might. As you've heard from Ron Rivera, postseason games and workouts don't necessarily help, but they can hurt. And of course, game tape means more than workouts or postseason games, but even there it's sometimes not so much the positive as it is a lack of the negative.

[BBQ&Beer]

Intellect

Wisdom

Drive.

Let me 'splain.

Intellect: ability to see changes in the game. Not just from college to pro, but year to year in the pros.

Wisdom: The ability to recognize one's shortcomings.

Drive: the ability to take criticism & make yourself better