Cam will start in 2011 if drafted

[MHS831]

Freeman did not SUCK as a rookie. He showed potential as a rookie. Big difference. Rookies aren't expected to be good....they are expected to show promise and starting building off games.

Freeman did that.

Sucking would be what Clausen did.

Freeman started at what would be probably the ideal time in a season for a rookie.

Besides establishing yourself as the sole authority on sucking, how can you defend against the recent history (the best predictor of the future is the past) and the fact that you think Cam will start without the preparation that the underclassmen QBs had--the 86% who failed in particular? Even the two who succeeded (Bledsoe and Big Ben) had OTAs and camps and were starters in college for more than a year in one system.

This is not about your example (Freeman)-- It is starting to be about dodging points and hard statistics that are contrary to your position.

[CRA]

Besides establishing yourself as the sole authority on sucking, how can you defend against the recent history (the best predictor of the future is the past) and the fact that you think Cam will start without the preparation that the underclassmen QBs had--the 86% who failed in particular? Even the two who succeeded (Bledsoe and Big Ben) had OTAs and camps and were starters in college for more than a year in one system.

This is not about your example (Freeman)-- It is starting to be about dodging points and hard statistics that are contrary to your position.

recent history shows Cam will start at some point this year....that was my point of this thread. The past 10 years more than suggests that...... there have only been 4 rookies in the past decade who did not start....and they all had pro bowl QBs starting ahead of them.

the rest, kids leave school earlier now....hard to compare now vs. the QBs 15 years ago. That is something that would be skewed in a lot of sports and not just the NFL. I don't really care about those numbers......it would be like comparing NBA players who played 4 years of college vs 1. Times changed.

[MHS831]

the rest, kids leave school earlier now....hard to compare now vs. the QBs 15years ago.

He very well may start, but the stats I provided were all of the QBs to date whose fate has been determined. There seems to be no difference between 15 years ago and now. After all, one of the TWO QBs who made the transition somewhat successfully was Bledsoe--from 15 years ago. And Josh Freeman had three years as a starter at Kansas State in a more complex offense. He still struggled for as many games as Clausen did-before showing promise at the end of the season.

If the QB position has changed any in 15 years, it has become more complex. Under the reality of today's circumstances, to say Cam will start is almost assuring his failure.

• Collegiate experience VERY limited
  
• Possiblity of no off season to learn playbook, no OTAs, no training camp, no pre-season.
  
• History of QBs in draft who come out early under normal circumstances
  
• Red flags concerning character and motivation
  

He may start, but I would say if he does, his chance of being successful is

worse than the 14% of underclassmen before him who were successful.

[CRA]

He very well may start, but the stats I provided were all of the QBs to date whose fate has been determined. There seems to be no difference between 15 years ago and now. After all, one of the TWO QBs who made the transition somewhat successfully was Bledsoe--from 15 years ago. And Josh Freeman had three years as a starter at Kansas State in a more complex offense. He still struggled for as many games as Clausen did-before showing promise at the end of the season.

If the QB position has changed any in 15 years, it has become more complex. Under the reality of today's circumstances, to say Cam will start is almost assuring his failure.

• Collegiate experience VERY limited
  
• Possiblity of no off season to learn playbook, no OTAs, no training camp, no pre-season.
  
• History of QBs in draft who come out early under normal circumstances
  
• Red flags concerning character and motivation
  

He may start, but I would say if he does, his chance of being successful is

worse than the 14% of underclassmen before him who were successful.

Kids enter professional sports much sooner now then 15 years ago.

21 of the last 25 QBs in the first round started......there success rate isn't drastically different than the 4 who didn't. So I don't see how that assures Cam's failure.

[mav1234]

I do not really think that drafting a junior QB versus a senior QB matters as much as the amount of playing time they got.

Keep in mind Cam Newton may be a junior but he has started only one season of Div I football.

[Marguide]

Freeman also had six months to learn the playbook, OTAs, and training camp, none of which are set this year. He still SUCKED as a rookie. In addition, we are talking QB, not all the best players. The link I gave focused on the underclassmen QBs from 1990-present, considering the players without three years under their belts have proven nothing either way.

14% success rate in the most recent years, and you have a better context? You criticize historical data and then reference Weinke to support your position? Could it be that you don't want to consider these stats because they contradict your opinion? I give you a list of about 20 players and you give 1 who struggled early to support yourself?

Come on. These numbers speak for themselves. Drafting Cam is not a coin toss, it is a dice roll, hoping we get a six.

I just found it odd that he wasn't included, unless I missed it.

Every draft selection is a roll of the dice. Including Dareus, Green, Peterson and anyone else you want to name.

Your reason for not wanting Cam is entirely valid. I just happen to have a different evaluation.

[mav1234]

I just found it odd that he wasn't included, unless I missed it.

Every draft selection is a roll of the dice. Including Dareus, Green, Peterson and anyone else you want to name.

Your reason for not wanting Cam is entirely valid. I just happen to have a different evaluation.

the article was about the 2009 draft...

[CRA]

I do not really think that drafting a junior QB versus a senior QB matters as much as the amount of playing time they got.

Keep in mind Cam Newton may be a junior but he has started only one season of Div I football.

what I care about with QBs, is ones who put teams on their backs when it matters and win. That to me is more important then individual stats, years in a college system, or a traditional skills set.

Tom Brady, The Golden Calf of Bristol, and Cam Newton all have something in common in college the Jimmy Clausen's don't. They could put a team on their back and flat out win (against real opponents). Winning is overlooked imo as people prefer to focus on little details that don't tell the entire story. I mean look at how The Golden Calf of Bristol looked in his rookie season......he was pretty dang good for a rookie who people said was a FB.

[Marguide]

the article was about the 2009 draft...

That would explain it.

I must not have had enough coffee this morning. :redface:

[mav1234]

I mean look at how The Golden Calf of Bristol looked in his rookie season......he was pretty dang good for a rookie who people said was a FB.

Ok, but The Golden Calf of Bristol went 1-2 as a starter. Better than Clausen? Sure, though Clausen also went 1-2 over that same time period.

Most people who were impressed by The Golden Calf of Bristol last year were impressed not because of his one win but because despite looking bad throwing the ball he still scored points.

The Golden Calf of Bristol and Brady both won over more than one year. I dunno. What Cam did was impressive, undeniably so, but I wish we had seen him at Div I school for more than a year.

[Snake]

recent history shows Cam will start at some point this year....that was my point of this thread. The past 10 years more than suggests that...... there have only been 4 rookies in the past decade who did not start....and they all had pro bowl QBs starting ahead of them.

the rest, kids leave school earlier now....hard to compare now vs. the QBs 15 years ago. That is something that would be skewed in a lot of sports and not just the NFL. I don't really care about those numbers......it would be like comparing NBA players who played 4 years of college vs 1. Times changed.

Cam is so raw idk if we can look back at history. Unless Jimmy fails real bad I just dont see it.

[MHS831]

I just found it odd that he wasn't included, unless I missed it.

Every draft selection is a roll of the dice. Including Dareus, Green, Peterson and anyone else you want to name.

Your reason for not wanting Cam is entirely valid. I just happen to have a different evaluation.

And if we draft him, I pray that you are right and I am wrong!

[MHS831]

what I care about with QBs, is ones who put teams on their backs when it matters and win. That to me is more important then individual stats, years in a college system, or a traditional skills set.

Tom Brady, The Golden Calf of Bristol, and Cam Newton all have something in common in college the Jimmy Clausen's don't. They could put a team on their back and flat out win (against real opponents). Winning is overlooked imo as people prefer to focus on little details that don't tell the entire story. I mean look at how The Golden Calf of Bristol looked in his rookie season......he was pretty dang good for a rookie who people said was a FB.

I agree 100%. Can we trust the Cam we see on TV? I think we can. I am not even concerned with his work ethic. Take a step back from the person, and the fact that the expectations are so high, he could be put in too soon. And the odds are against him if you look back. In another year, I would say maybe. This year, with all the uncertainty, I say "bad idea." If they do it, Marty is indeed rolling the dice.

By the way, the article was about the 2009 draft, but it changes nothing. The players drafted since then do not have enough experience to be measured. Players listed as "too early to tell"? Jamarcus Russell and Vince Young.

[CRA]

I agree 100%. Can we trust the Cam we see on TV? I think we can. I am not even concerned with his work ethic. Take a step back from the person, and the fact that the expectations are so high, he could be put in too soon. And the odds are against him if you look back. In another year, I would say maybe. This year, with all the uncertainty, I say "bad idea." If they do it, Marty is indeed rolling the dice.

By the way, the article was about the 2009 draft, but it changes nothing. The players drafted since then do not have enough experience to be measured. Players listed as "too early to tell"? Jamarcus Russell and Vince Young.

84% of all 1st rounders the last 10 years start for one reason or another at least a game.

Did sitting help Brady Quinn or JP Losman transition better?? They are half they 16% that sat all of their rookie years.

Cam Newton will either have it or he won't. I don't think it matters if he sits for 2 years or goes in late in the season of his rookie year.