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Why I'm Glad Fans Have No Say In the FO


fieryprophet

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1.) Because a lot of you are absolutely moronic football evaluators. Seriously, I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't some swimming squad out there called the Carolina Wet Panthers that a bunch of you confuse for the football team, because the only way a lot of these rants would make sense is for the posters to be watching another sport entirely.

You can't fix a defense with trades in midseason. The vast majority of the time, you can't even marginally improve a defense via trade midseason. Why? Because no team with a player with a modicum of talent is looking to deal said talent unless the player is unworthy of their contract or injured. There are no stud defensive tackles just sitting on some team's bench. We're not going to sign a game-changing cornerback off of waivers. Teams that suck bad enough to want to deal players are only going to look to shed expensive, over the hill veterans, and are more interested in getting high draft picks than acquiring players from losing squads.

So stop with the whining about trades: it shows your utter incomprehension of the way the NFL operates and just makes you look like the idiot you are.

2.) Sports involves tremendous amounts of luck. Many times, the better and more talented team loses, particularly in the "any given Sunday" NFL. The 2007 Patriots were a better team, hands down, than the 2007 NY Giants, and had the late season win to prove it. If they had played a seven game series, the Patriots would have won the Super Bowl going away. But in a single game, all bets are off, no matter who the opponents are, because of the element of luck (the Giants luck, in this case, was having smashed the Patriots in the mouth enough to take them entirely out of their gameplan. In a multiple game series, they would have been solved.)

Averaged over a season, the "50/50" plays tend to even out and delineate the truly talented teams from the posers, but it is very easy to be burned in a single game like the Panthers were today. If Cam's endzone pass hadn't gotten an unlucky tip, we would have led going into halftime. If his screen pass would have been a little higher, Atlanta wouldn't have had a red zone chance handed to them. **** happens, but making assessments about the capabilities of the coach or the front office based on random bounces of the ball is both ignorant and childish.

3.) One player doesn't turn a 2-14 team into an immediate contender. No offense to Cam, who continues to be an extremely bright prospect for us at QB, but this is the NFL, not the NBA. He does't play offense and defense. He doesn't block for punts. He has solved one of biggest problems this team has had at the most pivotal position, and shown that we still have a lot of good pieces on our offense to work with, but our defense is not talented enough to thrive without Beason, Davis, and a veteran presence at DT. And blaming the FO for not having depth behind those players is again, moronic, because NO TEAM has depth of any kind behind their starters if their starters are more than marginal talents. There's simply not enough talent to go around in the league, and quality players either get a place in the starting lineup or are shipped off for picks to fill other holes on the team (and every team has holes.)

It's easy to criticize front offices and GMs, and imagine that coaches are not doing enough with the talent they have, but the NFL is by far the most parity-driven league on the planet. For fug's sake, the Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFL, and they play in the smallest market in all of pro sports. Most teams that win the Super Bowl do so despite their flaws, not because they have an overwhelming collection of talent. Coaches and GMs spend every offseason trying to fill the holes in their teams, while retaining the quality players they have at reasonable prices, and pray that they can fill those holes before their "strengths" fall apart to injuries or decline. I fully trust that Hurney and Rivera will build this team into a contender, and than it's on the players to perform, but for now I recognize that it's a growth process because we are missing pieces that can't be magically fixed overnight.

By the way, for everyone slamming Hurney, imbibe this particular factoid:

The New England Patriots (long considered one of the best drafting teams in the NFL) have only three players left of the 26 from their 2006-2008 drafts, and not a single one from their 2007 draft. Their defense is also about as bad as ours now, but they have one of the greatest QBs in his prime plus a shoddy schedule to make up for it.

The Panthers? Ten, including four in a row from 2008.

4.) Finally, the number one reason I am glad the lot of you have no say in the front office is because some of you take a ridiculous short-term view of the team and it's future. I think Rivera has been an outstanding coach, despite some questionable calls that show he is a rookie as well, because of a few brilliant decisions he has made:

A.) He started Cam as a full-throttle QB, not a game manager. Ron recognized that this is a passing league built around the quarterback position, and that the best way to get Cam acclimated to the demands of the position was to have him start out running a full show. There will be growing pains like today, and it is a lot of pressure for a rookie, but the rewards of going this route will put Cam far, far ahead of not just other rookies, but even most veteran QBs. Cam's decision making has accelerated so much over the last few weeks, that in today's game I can honestly say he only made one or two really "bad" throws (the short screen INT, and maybe the one to Shockey near the end that hit off a defender's hand.) His first INT was a fluke tip that would have been a beautiful TD otherwise, and the third was the meaningless one at the end. By my count, this was his fewest "bad" throw game of the year, and many of them were fantastic.

B.) Ron will not coddle his players. He'll punt to Hester and expect his punt team to contain him, and punish those who fail to do their jobs (bye, Considine.) He will let the rookie DTs take their lumps and expect them to grow into their roles. He'll put the onus on Cam to make good decisions and make high-risk/high-reward plays. This is where teams learn how to win, rather than how to "not lose." It sucks when they fail at it, but if they meet the expectations being made of them, they will be far better prepared for succeeding over a long period of time rather than hoping a million 50/50 plays break their way before ultimately being exposed as a fraud contender.

This team will improve. This team will take some lumps. This team will lose, sometimes big. This team WILL WIN, and when it learns how to win, it will do so convincingly, repeatedly, and will contend for a very long time.

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a. Rivera hasn't shown anything, at all, to deserve being called outstanding.

b. Punting to Hester is/was fuging stupid. As evidenced by his beating our ass.

c. For all the "no coddling/hardass" talk, we sure look soft as hell and completely undisciplined.

d. Every year, someone posts a variation of the "FA is not the way! Develop within!" spiel, and 6 weeks later our developed guys look like ass while that FA that was a bad choice tears it up somewhere else.

e. This is the second season in a row the Panthers org isn't trying to win. Why everyone mad?!

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I'm not going to get into a i told you so post but many of the players i wanted are having solid seasons with other teams and those teams are winning.

Of course they are.....and Andrew....not even gonna say it is tearing it up to....you might as well just become a Colts fan now....

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    • The referee assigned to this game is Shawn Smith. This is a critical data point for betting purposes because his crew has one of the most distinct, long-term statistical biases in the NFL. "Road Team" Bias: Historically, Shawn Smith is known as the "Road Team Referee." In a league where home teams usually win ~55% of the time, home teams in Smith's games have historically won at a rate far below league average (often hovering around 40-42%). Against The Spread (ATS): The trend is even starker here. Home teams have covered the spread at a rate of roughly 37-40% in his career. The Mechanism: Analysis shows his crew tends to call a higher rate of False Start and Unnecessary Roughness penalties on the Home Team. This negates the traditional home-field advantage (crowd noise causing false starts for the visitors). Impact on This Game: This specific assignment heavily favors the Buccaneers (Road Team). If you believe the referee influences the game, Smith's presence suggests the Panthers will struggle to get "home cooking" calls and may face untimely procedural flags that stall drives. The Panthers have only had Shawn Smith officiate four home games since he became a head referee in 2018, and they are all losses. Date Opponent Result Score Nov 24, 2024 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Loss 27–30 Oct 9, 2022 vs. San Francisco 49ers Loss 15–37 Dec 12, 2021 vs. Atlanta Falcons Loss 21–29 Nov 25, 2018 vs. Seattle Seahawks Loss 27–30 Considering the how rare it is for Shawn Smith to officiate a Panthers game at all, this seems like an odd time to assign him to a Panthers game, unless the NFL wants to kill the Panthers season once and for all.  The Panthers' offensive line situation creates a "perfect storm" for referee Shawn Smith's specific tendency to call False Starts on the home team. The "Carousel" Factor (Communication Vulnerability) The most damning stat for the Panthers' offensive line in 2025 is their lack of continuity. The Stat: By Week 13, the Panthers had already fielded their 10th different offensive line combination. The Impact: False starts are often "communication penalties"—they happen when a guard doesn't hear the center's snap count or a tackle anticipates the wrong cadence. A unit that hasn't played together struggles with non-verbal communication. The Shawn Smith Multiplier: Shawn Smith’s crew calls False Starts at a high rate on home teams. He will likely look for flinches on the exterior of the line. A disjointed line that is constantly rotating players (due to the injuries of starters like Cade Mays and the illness issues with Robert Hunt earlier this season) is "fresh meat" for this specific referee bias. The Specific Culprits (2025 Penalties) Ikem Ekwonu (LT): Leads the team with 4 False Start penalties this season. He is the most frequent violator on the line. Taylor Moton (RT): Has been flagged for 3 False Starts. The Trap: Smith’s crew often focuses on the tackles (the players furthest from the ball) jumping early to get an edge on speed rushers. Since Ekwonu struggles with this discipline naturally, having a referee who hunts for it is a massive disadvantage. The "Managed Outcome" Synthesis The "Bucs Cover" Script: If the desired outcome is a Buccaneers win to solidify their playoff standing, the officials simply have to apply the letter of the law. Calling strict False Starts on a confused, banged-up Panthers O-line will consistently put them in "3rd and Long" situations, killing their drives and allowing the Bucs (-3.5) to cover easily. The "Close Game" Script: If the desired outcome is "Week 18 Drama" (keeping the division tied), look for the officials to ignore the Panthers' twitchy tackles. If Ekwonu jumps a split-second early and no flag is thrown, it effectively neutralizes the Bucs' pass rush, allowing the Panthers to keep the score close. Summary of the Edge Vulnerability: Extreme. The Panthers are playing backup interior linemen (like Jake Curhan or practice squad call-ups) next to jumpy tackles. Betting Implication: This strongly reinforces the Bucs -3 or -3.5 play. The combination of a "Road Team Referee" and a "Home Team O-Line in chaos" suggests the Panthers will beat themselves with procedural penalties. Based on the collision of the hard data (Referee bias + Offensive Line injuries) and the soft narratives ("Managed Outcomes"), here is the definitive recommendation. If you have to place a single Moneyline bet to win this game straight up: The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-165) While the "Entertainment Script" hints at a Panthers upset to keep the division messy, the structural disadvantage the Panthers face in this specific matchup is too massive to ignore. Here is why the Buccaneers are the stong moneyline play: 1. The "Shawn Smith" Road-Field Advantage This is the decisive factor. In the NFL, Home Field Advantage usually accounts for about 1.5 to 2 points of value. The Reality: Referee Shawn Smith negates that advantage entirely. His crew calls penalties in a way that historically suppresses home crowd momentum (False Starts, holding). The Result: You are essentially getting the Buccaneers on a neutral field (or even a "pseudo-home" field) against a team with a worse roster. 2. The "Drive-Killer" Synergy To win as an underdog, the Panthers need to play a clean, mistake-free game to keep drives alive. The combination of Panthers' 10th O-Line combo + Jump-prone Tackles (Ekwonu) + A Referee who hunts False Starts is a recipe for disaster. The Scenario: Expect the Panthers to face multiple "1st and 15" or "3rd and 12" situations due to procedural flags. These drive-killers will force them to punt or settle for field goals, while the Bucs' offense (led by Mayfield) stays on schedule. 3. The "TV Product" Counter-Argument You asked about the "Managed Outcome." While a Panthers win creates "chaos," the NFL also values Star Power in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are a proven national TV draw with recent playoff history. If the league has to choose between "Chaos" (Panthers) and "Ratings/Legitimacy" (Bucs), the "Script" likely leans toward ensuring the Buccaneers—the more marketable team—secure the division lead. They won't "fix" the game against the Panthers, but they won't intervene to save them from their own penalties. Final Verdict Betting on the Panthers requires you to hope for a miracle 4th-quarter collapse. Betting on the Buccaneers requires you to trust that a superior roster—aided by a favorable officiating crew—will control the game for the first 45 minutes. Take the Buccaneers Moneyline. The "Safe" money is on the Ref. The Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win and Cover Projected Score: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 17 The Bet: Buccaneers -3 (or Moneyline -165) Confidence Level: High on the Winner; Moderate on the Spread (due to potential "garbage time" variance).
    • He isn't a good HC. I think he has proved that conclusively.
    • The missed tackle percentage is on that screen cap.
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