Fox praises Jarrett

[BlindSite]

Don't forget Jarrett is going to be 23 this year, not exactly an aging man... He's got at least another 10 years ahead of him.

[panthers55]

Just for a little perspective, Williams was picked with the 10th overall pick and expected to contribute early. This was on top of playing in an offense that threw the ball slightly over 100 more times than the panthers this season. On a team that featured a TE as the leading receiver (Marcus Pollard, 46 receptions and 516 yds; and Roy Williams close with 45 rec. and 687 yds.)

For arguments sake I'll compare that to Jarrett this season, as it was his highest statistically.

Jarrett came into the season in Fox's doghouse behind newly signed DJ Hackett who had proven he could play, and nobody expected him to do much.

Yea, he only had 10 catches(side note: 9 first downs). But he also did this in an offense that hit their pro bowl wide receiver Steve Smith for 78 rec. and 1421 yds, and Moose for 65 rec. and 923 yards, and while fighting for playing time with a proven veteran at the #3 receiver spot.

To recap, for both receivers best statistical years:

Williams caught 29 balls in an offense that threw the ball 106 times more than the panthers and had their top two receivers responsible for 30% of their completions. Also had 20 first downs, but criticized for having poor hands.

Jarrett caught 10 balls in an offense that was mainly run oriented, and had their top two receivers responsible for 58% of their completions. Also had 9 first downs, and praised for having good hands and making the most of his opportunities.

I'm not saying Jarrett doesn't need to step it up, or that he has proven anything. But lets be fair and not "compare" him statistically to a legendary bust who's career so far has had the exact opposite path so far.

Williams peaked in his rookie season and sharply declined until he was out of the league after 3 teams and 4 seasons.

Jarrett had some growing pains, but manned up, worked hard, and showed some improvement even in a very difficult situation to produce.

That's all. Thanks to SI and Nfl.com for the stats.

Good job with the stats but in this case they are irrelevant. It doesn't matter how many times a team throws the ball it matters how many times he throws to that receiver, how many he catches, what he does with it. If you had compared how many games jarrett was active and thus how many opportunities he had it would be relevant. If you had pointed out that Williams started more games and participated in this many more passing plays it could be relevant. If you had mentioned injuries etc it could be relevant. But to assume that because a team throws more or less it is relevant is clearly a nonsequitor. Quarterbacks don't throw to receivers because they aren't open or most often because the quarterback doesn't trust the guy to make the catch. Jarrett has done little to justify confidence and rarely gained much separation despite being single covered all the time.

For the record Jarrett didn't play his rookie year because he was slack, didn't show enough effort and subsequently was punished.

This past year he worked harder, showed more effort and was rewarded by being on the field more often. In 2009 he has a huge opportunity to vie for being the number 2 receiver and showing Jake he can counted on in thrid down situations. I did see him catch a few tough balls and hold on after some vicious hits. I remember being impressed. And I surely hope he excels this year, we need him.

But the Mike Williams bust tag won't be removed until he shows he can be a consistent target, run good routes, show maximum effort and earn a spot on the team.

[ihateforumnames]

Good job with the stats but in this case they are irrelevant. It doesn't matter how many times a team throws the ball it matters how many times he throws to that receiver, how many he catches, what he does with it. If you had compared how many games jarrett was active and thus how many opportunities he had it would be relevant. If you had pointed out that Williams started more games and participated in this many more passing plays it could be relevant. If you had mentioned injuries etc it could be relevant. But to assume that because a team throws more or less it is relevant is clearly a nonsequitor. Quarterbacks don't throw to receivers because they aren't open or most often because the quarterback doesn't trust the guy to make the catch. Jarrett has done little to justify confidence and rarely gained much separation despite being single covered all the time.

For the record Jarrett didn't play his rookie year because he was slack, didn't show enough effort and subsequently was punished.

This past year he worked harder, showed more effort and was rewarded by being on the field more often. In 2009 he has a huge opportunity to vie for being the number 2 receiver and showing Jake he can counted on in thrid down situations. I did see him catch a few tough balls and hold on after some vicious hits. I remember being impressed. And I surely hope he excels this year, we need him.

But the Mike Williams bust tag won't be removed until he shows he can be a consistent target, run good routes, show maximum effort and earn a spot on the team.

I can understand where your thoughts began, but they once again were poorly constructed.

You missed the irony that the only reason I came up with those stats was because you compared the two receivers based on even less relevant stats than mine.

And on that note:

Less passes thrown by the offense = Less opportunities for every wide receiver to produce. Definitely not irrelevant.

The stat that our top 2 receivers caught nearly 3 out of 5 of all our completions? Well you could argue that it just meant that Jarrett wasn't good enough to get more of those completions.

I think it's more likely, however, to assume that if you have two good wide receivers that have that level of production, that the other receivers simply will not get as many looks.

Mike Williams was in the exact opposite position. The Lions really needed him to produce much more than he did. They had Roy Williams, but he didn't do much. Mike Williams I guarantee got more looks than Jarrett just because the Lions didn't have the talent we have to rely on.

What a "non sequitur" argument is, my friend, is arguing that Jarrett is a Williams-type bust when they are two completely different situations, based on their career production numbers, and THEN telling me that MY stats were irrelevant.

I understand my stats didn't prove anything, but they were hardly irrelevant. I was doing what I like to call "looking at the big picture"

[top dawg]

Perhaps Fox is seeing that light at the end of the tunnel.

[panthers55]

I can understand where your thoughts began, but they once again were poorly constructed.

You missed the irony that the only reason I came up with those stats was because you compared the two receivers based on even less relevant stats than mine.

And on that note:

Less passes thrown by the offense = Less opportunities for every wide receiver to produce. Definitely not irrelevant.

The stat that our top 2 receivers caught nearly 3 out of 5 of all our completions? Well you could argue that it just meant that Jarrett wasn't good enough to get more of those completions.

I think it's more likely, however, to assume that if you have two good wide receivers that have that level of production, that the other receivers simply will not get as many looks.

Mike Williams was in the exact opposite position. The Lions really needed him to produce much more than he did. They had Roy Williams, but he didn't do much. Mike Williams I guarantee got more looks than Jarrett just because the Lions didn't have the talent we have to rely on.

What a "non sequitur" argument is, my friend, is arguing that Jarrett is a Williams-type bust when they are two completely different situations, based on their career production numbers, and THEN telling me that MY stats were irrelevant.

I understand my stats didn't prove anything, but they were hardly irrelevant. I was doing what I like to call "looking at the big picture"

First of all I didn't make the comparison, Blindsite did. I was just commenting on what he said ie. That people who called Jarrett a Mike Williams bust were wrong. I merely pointed out that Jarrett would have to have a good year for his three seasons to equal what Williams did in his only three seasons in the NFL.

If I had made a comparison between Jarrett and another receiver, based on what I think, Williams wouldn't have been my choice. Obxiously there is the USC connection but I don't see them as very similar.

Regarding your stats and assumptions I already pointed out that opportunities were an issue but not in the way you mentioned. You used overall passes thrown as a piece of your argument but that is not a particularly relevant one in and of itself. If you had said that Jarrett played in a total of 16 games in his two years catching 16 balls for an average of 1 catch per game versus Williams who playing in 22 games and started in 6 games caught 37 balls and averaged 1.7 catches per game, I would said that was somewhat relevant and mildly interesting but still failed to account for opportunities.. If you had said that Jarrett in his best year in 2008 was targeted 19 times, dropped 1, caught 52.6% of his passes and 47.4 % went for first downs I would said that was more interesting and now relevant. If you had said that Williams in his best year was targeted 48 times, dropped 2, caught 60.4% of his passes and 42% went for first downs I would have said very relevant and provides a comparison to a point.

If you had said that until Jarrett reports to camp weighing 270 lbs as Williams did when he reported to training camp in 2008 for Tennessee, there isn't a comparison, it would have been somewhat relevant. Particularly in comparing desire and willingness to sacrifice to play since Williams got worse and Jarrett seems to have learned his lesson and has improved.

As for what you did say, they were interesting and accurate but failed to provide information that allows you to evaluate them in a way that allows for comparison. For example you said that WIlliams didn't do much. Surely an opinion but devoid of any collaborative evidence. If you had said that in 2007 and 2008 either for Detroit or Dallas he failed to catch more than 45% of the passes thrown to him and only a third of them went for first downs, then you could make that statement and back it up. You need to look at quality stats such as catches per game played, catches as a function of number of balls thrown his direction, drops, first down completions. Otherwise the big picture can paint any picture you desire but it is hardly accurate or relevant. And you can tell I don't feel strongly about the issue as I have given you some arguments which favor Jarrett as well.

And lastly perhaps you should try some of that "oregano". Perhaps you would be less argumentative and more laid back.

[ihateforumnames]

You've still missed the point.

My whole argument was that the two were put into entirely different situations and expectations to produce.

In my opinion those situations were different enough that you can't accurately compare the receivers based on production numbers, and so I didn't think saying Jarrett would only be better than Williams if he manages to top William's stats is an accurate statement.

So really all I was saying is Jarrett has not earned a bust label yet, especially one like Williams. The two have entirely different attitudes.

I'm sorry if I came off a little too argumentative, I just enjoy it too much. I really am a laid back dude though, even without the oregano haha

[panthers55]

You've still missed the point.

My whole argument was that the two were put into entirely different situations and expectations to produce.

In my opinion those situations were different enough that you can't accurately compare the receivers based on production numbers, and so I didn't think saying Jarrett would only be better than Williams if he manages to top William's stats is an accurate statement.

So really all I was saying is Jarrett has not earned a bust label yet, especially one like Williams. The two have entirely different attitudes.

I'm sorry if I came off a little too argumentative, I just enjoy it too much. I really am a laid back dude though, even without the oregano haha

As I intimated I don't really see Jarrett as a bust yet. His first year was very poor but he did have some good moments last year and especially showed toughness catching a few balls and even more importantly holding on to them after taking some vicious hits. With Hackett gone he will be counted on to step up big time this year and eventually replace Moose as our number 2. I surely hope he does given we picked him as a second rounder but many felt he should have gone in the first. It should be noted that wide receiver is the second hardest position to come in and contribute right away behind quarterback. So he has time to get it together. I just hope he doesn't follow the pattern of Carter and Colbert who failed to improve significantly each year.

Hopefully we can have some more discussions down the road on other topics.

[ihateforumnames]

Hopefully we can have some more discussions down the road on other topics.

Definitely. Hopefully they are about how dominating Jarrett became(will become?) in the red zone this season

[Carolina Crazy V2]

Jarrett is similar to Moose physically. Jarrett could be a good 2nd reciever once Moose falls apart.

[methodtoll]

I like Jarrett and I hope he succeeds. I think he has more talent then Williams and Colbert combined and just needed to be guided in the right direction. That said, I think Moose is doing a good job mentoring him and I hope he improves his blocking skills because when Moose decides to step down, it will be all Jarrett.

and don't be surprised if we draft another receiver.

[panthers55]

I like Jarrett and I hope he succeeds. I think he has more talent then Williams and Colbert combined and just needed to be guided in the right direction. That said, I think Moose is doing a good job mentoring him and I hope he improves his blocking skills because when Moose decides to step down, it will be all Jarrett.

and don't be surprised if we draft another receiver.

I agree with drafting another one. I see all this discussion about drafting a quarterback with the recognition that quarterbacks have to be developed over time and nurtured without the same recognition about wide receivers. Gil Brandt on NFL Sirius yesterday was saying that historically wide receiver was the second most difficult position to pick up behind quarterback. He suggested there are as many busts as successes each year and that teams needed to groom them and develop as well.

I doubt we draft them high though given that they will have to be on the active roster to avoid being picked off if they are rated highly. Going after diamonds in the rough means you can often stash them on the practice squad as we did with Carter.

We are already slated to have Smith, Moose, Jarrett, Robinson and Moore on the active roster.

[Ncstatefan]

Jarrett is the future, he'll be the 2 next year

[frash.exe]

well this is make or break year for Jarrett. he either produces now or he never will, at least not on this team.

[panthers55]

Jarrett is the future, he'll be the 2 next year

We said the same thing about Carter and Colbert and it never happened. The other thing is that Colbert had a much better start as well. I sure hope Jarrett continues to improve while Colbert and Carter never seemed to get over the hump.