Football Outsiders updated Panthers statistics

[TheRealDeal]

You should know that I'm friends with one of the biggest Sir Cameron Newton: Leader of Men, Lover of Puppies...Esquire fans alive and he's now a Panther fan because of scam, you believe that?

[mav1234]

no trd I refuse

[TheRealDeal]

True story, been one of my good friends since we were in high school and he finally moved to San Diego with his lady into a house with my other two buddies. He's usually teh only one awake when I get there at 10 on Sundays so we BS back and forth. He loves him some scam. It's funny hearing someone from "the outside" talk about him

[mav1234]

stop calling him scam, my ears are bleeding

[TheRealDeal]

It's a term of endearment

[rayzor]

It's a term of endearment

it's a trolling term.

you just can't help yourself can you?

[ed bell]

It's a term of endearment

I guess it depends, if the deal is real and believes that Newton is a "scam" then he can have at it....If he doesn't care but prefers to refer to Newton as "scam" then that is the classic troll...pretty simple. I've long since given up on deciding where the truth lies. Only one thing is for sure, good performances suppress the trolling, ugly losses embolden them. Easy math....

[teeray]

Using yards per point to rank and predict.

League average offense and defense: Offense: 17.05 Defense allowed: 15.93

League mean(average team): Offense: 15.4 Rank: 15 Defense allowed: 15.9 Rank :15

Detroit opposition:

Tampa Bay 19.1 - 15.5

Kansas City 19.6 - 15.0

Minnesota 16.4 - 13.5

Dallas 16.3 - 13.5

Chicago 12.4 - 18.1

San Francisco 12.0 - 21. 8

Atlanta 15.4 - 15.8

Denver 15.2 - 14.4

Chicago 12.4 - 18.1

Carolina Panthers opposition

Arizona 15.7 - 16.0

Green Bay 11.5 - 18.6

Jacksonville - 19.1 - 16.1

Chicago 12.4 - 18.1

New Orleans 14.0 - 18.1

Atlanta 15.4 - 15.8

Washington 20.5- 17.0

Minnesota 16.4 - 13.5

Tennessee 15.4- 18.3

League mean(average team): Offense: 15.4 Rank: 15 Defense allowed: 21.7 Rank :15

Detroit Lions:

Offense: 12.9 Rank: 4

Defense: 15.6 Rank: 19

Detroit Lions opponent comparison vs league average

Offense: 15.4 Rank: 15th

Defense allowed: 12. 8 Rank : 33+

Carolina Panthers:

Offense: 18.9 Rank: 25

Defense allowed: 13.7 Rank: 29

Carolina Panthers opposition vs league average:

Offense: 15.7 Rank: 16th

Defense allowed: 16.8 Rank: 9

League mean(average team): Offense: 15.4 Rank: 15 Defense allowed: 15.9 Rank :15

Lions offense compared to league average: 119% Current Rank: 4th

Lions offense compared to opponents offense: 119%

Lions defense allowed compared to league average: 98% Current Rank: 19

Lions defense allowed compared to opponents defense allowed: 121%

Lions opponents offense compared to league average: 100% Rank 15th

Lions opponents defense allowed compared to league average: 120% Rank: 33+

Lions offense estimated strength of schedule: 33+ off the charts easy

Lions defense estimated strength of schedule: 15th average

Lions overall estimated strength of schedule: 33+ off the charts easy.

Panthers offense compared to league average: 81% Current Rank: 25th

Panthers offense compared to opponents offense: 83%

Panthers defense allowed compared to league average: 86% Current Rank: 29

Panthers defense allowed compared to opponents: 81%

Panthers opponents offense compared to league average: 98% Rank: 16th

Panthers opponents defense allowed compared to league average: 95% Rank 9

Panthers offense estimated strength of schedule: 9th

Panthers defense estimated strength of schedule: 16th

Panthers overall estimated strength of schedule: 10th

Teams efficiency ratings adjusted for strength of schedule

Detroit Lions:

Offense: 15.5 Rank 15th

Defense: 15.6 Rank 15th

Carolina Panthers:

Offense: 18.0 Rank: 23

Defense: 13.4 Rank 31

Carolina yards per game 361.4

Carolina points per game 26.3

Detroit points per game: 20.4

Detroits yards per game: 318.4

Estimated efficiency rating at league average schedule and turnover/takeaway avg:

(3.8 points/50 yards or 15.67 ypp for an average offense)

Detroit Lions:

Offense: 15.5 Rank 15th

Defense: 15.6 Rank 15th

Carolina Panthers

Offense: 18.3 Rank 24

Defense: 14.53 Rank 20

Score prediction

Carolina Defense vs avg offense: 361 yards per game x 102% = 368 yards

Detroit Offense expected yards vs Carolina Defense = 368 yards

Detroit Offense vs Carolina Defense = 268/14.53 =25.3 points

Carolina offense vs Detroit defense.

Detroit Defense vs avg offense = 318.4 yards

Carolina offense expected yards vs Detroit defense : 399.7 x 105% = 419 yards

Carolina offense vs Detroit defense: 419 / 18.3 = 22.9

At even(0) turnover margin:

Detroit 25 - 23 Carolina

Turnovers

Carolina Defense:

Takeaways:1.1

Forced Fumble Recoveries: 5 0.6 per game vs league average 120%

Opponent Giveaways: 0.5 45%

Carolina Offense:

Giveaways: 1.6 100% est vs average defense 1.5 93%

Detroit

Takeaways: 2.1

Force Fumble Recoveries: 8 0.9 per game vs league average 180%

Opponents Giveaways(except FFR): 1.2 109% est.

Offense:

Total Giveaways 1.2 75% est. vs average defense 1.4 88%

League average takeaways: 1.6

League average forced fumble recoveries: .5

League average giveaways(except FFR): 1.0

Detroit defense chance of forcing a fumble against Carolina offense : 100%+

Detroit defense chance of obtaining 1 takeaway from Carolina offense: 300%+

Detroit defense chance of obtaining 2 takeaways from Carolina: 154%+

Detroit defense chance of obtaining 3 takeaways from Carolina: 108%

Carolina defense chance of forcing a fumble against Detroit: 60%

Carolina defense chance of obtaining 1 takeaway from Detroit: 150%

Carolina defense chance of obtaining 2 takeaways from Detroit: 50%

Expected Takeaways: Detroit 3 - Carolina 1

Expected turnover margin:

Carolina: - 2

Expected Points per turnover: Detroit: 3.8 Carolina : 3.0(81% vs league avg)

Expected Takeaways: Detroit 3 - Carolina 1

Estimated points off Takeaways: Detroit 11.4 - 3.0 Carolina

Estimated points loss from turnovers: Detroit: 3.8 Carolina: 9

Estimated points gained from turnovers: Detroit: 7.6 Carolina - 6.0

At even turnover margin: Detroit 25 - 23 Carolina

Estimated total: 32.6 - 17.0

Final score: Detroit 33 - 17 Carolina

Expected Winner: De..Carolina!

Good to see that you are finally learning how to use YPP properly. :)

That is pretty similar to what I do except I only use the previous 4 games instead of all games and I don't adjust for turnovers.

My final was something like 26-20 Detroit which was on par with the Vegas spread. (not implying my math is better than yours just simply saying it was even with the spread at the time)

So I didn't bet on the game.... yet. :(

[teeray]

I already knew how to use it properly. Too bad you still don't though. You still think Carolina's defense is the problem. lol

Do we really need to have this conversation again??

[teeray]

Well I don't remember you conceding the point.

That is because I didn't. YPP is used for handicapping and for score predicting. That is what you just used it for.

But that doesn't change anything from our earlier conversations.

I don't want to rehash the same thing over and over again. We have differing views on how representative YPP is to your offense and defense. We are going to have to leave it at that.

I like your model up there though. Pretty interesting.

One question, and don't take this as an attack on you it is a sincere question. You weighting turnovers, if you are using both defensive and offensive YPP to do your score predictor doesn't YPP already account for turnovers and and how those turnovers effect both DYPP and OYPP??

To some degree since all points allowed by your defense and points scored by your offense are a part of YPP aren't those points already accounted for.

Sincere question not attacking or questioning you formula. Just curious. It would seem you are double counting those points.

[chef17]

I already knew how to use it properly. Too bad you still don't though. You still think Carolina's defense is the problem. lol

Do you not think the defense is the biggest problem, or do you not think they are a problem at all?

[Marguide]

Using yards per point to rank and predict.

League average offense and defense: Offense: 17.05 Defense allowed: 15.93

League mean(average team): Offense: 15.4 Rank: 15 Defense allowed: 15.9 Rank :15

Detroit opposition:

Tampa Bay 19.1 - 15.5

Kansas City 19.6 - 15.0

Minnesota 16.4 - 13.5

Dallas 16.3 - 13.5

Chicago 12.4 - 18.1

San Francisco 12.0 - 21. 8

Atlanta 15.4 - 15.8

Denver 15.2 - 14.4

Chicago 12.4 - 18.1

Carolina Panthers opposition

Arizona 15.7 - 16.0

Green Bay 11.5 - 18.6

Jacksonville - 19.1 - 16.1

Chicago 12.4 - 18.1

New Orleans 14.0 - 18.1

Atlanta 15.4 - 15.8

Washington 20.5- 17.0

Minnesota 16.4 - 13.5

Tennessee 15.4- 18.3

League mean(average team): Offense: 15.4 Rank: 15 Defense allowed: 21.7 Rank :15

Detroit Lions:

Offense: 12.9 Rank: 4

Defense: 15.6 Rank: 19

Detroit Lions opponent comparison vs league average

Offense: 15.4 Rank: 15th

Defense allowed: 12. 8 Rank : 33+

Carolina Panthers:

Offense: 18.9 Rank: 25

Defense allowed: 13.7 Rank: 29

Carolina Panthers opposition vs league average:

Offense: 15.7 Rank: 16th

Defense allowed: 16.8 Rank: 9

League mean(average team): Offense: 15.4 Rank: 15 Defense allowed: 15.9 Rank :15

Lions offense compared to league average: 119% Current Rank: 4th

Lions offense compared to opponents offense: 119%

Lions defense allowed compared to league average: 98% Current Rank: 19

Lions defense allowed compared to opponents defense allowed: 121%

Lions opponents offense compared to league average: 100% Rank 15th

Lions opponents defense allowed compared to league average: 120% Rank: 33+

Lions offense estimated strength of schedule: 33+ off the charts easy

Lions defense estimated strength of schedule: 15th average

Lions overall estimated strength of schedule: 33+ off the charts easy.

Panthers offense compared to league average: 81% Current Rank: 25th

Panthers offense compared to opponents offense: 83%

Panthers defense allowed compared to league average: 86% Current Rank: 29

Panthers defense allowed compared to opponents: 81%

Panthers opponents offense compared to league average: 98% Rank: 16th

Panthers opponents defense allowed compared to league average: 95% Rank 9

Panthers offense estimated strength of schedule: 9th

Panthers defense estimated strength of schedule: 16th

Panthers overall estimated strength of schedule: 10th

Teams efficiency ratings adjusted for strength of schedule

Detroit Lions:

Offense: 15.5 Rank 15th

Defense: 15.6 Rank 15th

Carolina Panthers:

Offense: 18.0 Rank: 23

Defense: 13.4 Rank 31

Carolina yards per game 361.4

Carolina points per game 26.3

Detroit points per game: 20.4

Detroits yards per game: 318.4

Estimated efficiency rating at league average schedule and turnover/takeaway avg:

(3.8 points/50 yards or 15.67 ypp for an average offense)

Detroit Lions:

Offense: 15.5 Rank 15th

Defense: 15.6 Rank 15th

Carolina Panthers

Offense: 18.3 Rank 24

Defense: 14.53 Rank 20

Score prediction

Carolina Defense vs avg offense: 361 yards per game x 102% = 368 yards

Detroit Offense expected yards vs Carolina Defense = 368 yards

Detroit Offense vs Carolina Defense = 268/14.53 =25.3 points

Carolina offense vs Detroit defense.

Detroit Defense vs avg offense = 318.4 yards

Carolina offense expected yards vs Detroit defense : 399.7 x 105% = 419 yards

Carolina offense vs Detroit defense: 419 / 18.3 = 22.9

At even(0) turnover margin:

Detroit 25 - 23 Carolina

Turnovers

Carolina Defense:

Takeaways:1.1

Forced Fumble Recoveries: 5 0.6 per game vs league average 120%

Opponent Giveaways: 0.5 45%

Carolina Offense:

Giveaways: 1.6 100% est vs average defense 1.5 93%

Detroit

Takeaways: 2.1

Force Fumble Recoveries: 8 0.9 per game vs league average 180%

Opponents Giveaways(except FFR): 1.2 109% est.

Offense:

Total Giveaways 1.2 75% est. vs average defense 1.4 88%

League average takeaways: 1.6

League average forced fumble recoveries: .5

League average giveaways(except FFR): 1.0

Detroit defense chance of forcing a fumble against Carolina offense : 100%+

Detroit defense chance of obtaining 1 takeaway from Carolina offense: 300%+

Detroit defense chance of obtaining 2 takeaways from Carolina: 154%+

Detroit defense chance of obtaining 3 takeaways from Carolina: 108%

Carolina defense chance of forcing a fumble against Detroit: 60%

Carolina defense chance of obtaining 1 takeaway from Detroit: 150%

Carolina defense chance of obtaining 2 takeaways from Detroit: 50%

Expected Takeaways: Detroit 3 - Carolina 1

Expected turnover margin:

Carolina: - 2

Expected Points per turnover: Detroit: 3.8 Carolina : 3.0(81% vs league avg)

Expected Takeaways: Detroit 3 - Carolina 1

Estimated points off Takeaways: Detroit 11.4 - 3.0 Carolina

Estimated points loss from turnovers: Detroit: 3.8 Carolina: 9

Estimated points gained from turnovers: Detroit: 7.6 Carolina - 6.0

At even turnover margin: Detroit 25 - 23 Carolina

Estimated total: 32.6 - 17.0

Final score: Detroit 33 - 17 Carolina

Expected Winner: De..Carolina!

That seems like a lot of work just to find out Detroit is a better team than Carolina and should win this weekend. It's a lot more fun to just watch the games, and it is really not that difficult to figure out which are the good teams and which are bad.

But hey, have fun.

[chef17]

All I'm saying is...

Carolina Panthers: Against average league schedule.

Offense: 18.0 Rank: 23

Defense: 13.4 Rank 31

At an even turnover margin.

Carolina Panthers

Offense: 18.3 Rank 24

Defense: 14.53 Rank 20

That's just the effect of .5 extra turnovers from a better schedule for the defense and -.4 turnover margin wiped out. Imagine where our defense would be if we had an average efficient offense.

They're a problem when it comes to giving up yards, but they're not the problem

They have fared better than most teams against some of the top offenses in the league compared to the "top 10 defenses" like the Texans for example. They had 44 put on them by the Saints. We only gave up 30, 27 if we're going to be fair. We kept GB to 30 with 4 turnovers. Chicago got a pick 6 against us and they were not even on the damn field as well as another 7 thanks to the Special teams.

I think our D are much like San Diego's and some of the best defenses are built like this. Bend but don't break.

So yeah we could use Beason, but nothing will help our defense more than our offense being an efficient offense. Typically the best defenses are also the ones with the most efficient offenses. It goes hand in hand.

PS: And I didn't do all this for the game. You actually come out with almost the same exact score if you just take each team's YPP against each other without figuring everything else out. I did all this to see where Carolina's D and O stands against league average. Although I think it's worth noting that every time we gave up a turnover we lost. And the Lions have a 100%+ chance or more of getting 3. That's just crazy. I don't think their offense even have to show up to win this one.

We give up 26.3 points a game, the 3rd most, and the defense plays a good part in that. Whatever "the problem" is, the defense shares it's part.

[chef17]

They didn't have the chance to stop the Saints from scoring on their final possession?