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LOL, how many times have we seen this?


RelaxImaPro

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How did they calculate the probability ? Anyhow, this graph is identical to my "we got this" feeling during the game.

 

Based on a logit regression of every game played for the past 5 seasons, a mathematical model was established to determine the probability each opponent would win a game. The model is based on team efficiency stats which include:
 
Offensive pass efficiency, including sack yardage
Defensive pass efficency, including sack yardage
Offensive run efficiency
Defensive run efficiency
Offensive interception rate
Defensive interception rate
Offensive fumble rate
Penalty rate (penalty yards per play)

 

Etc. etc. etc.

 

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/09/nfl-win-prediction-methodology.html

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