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The referee assigned to this game is Shawn Smith. This is a critical data point for betting purposes because his crew has one of the most distinct, long-term statistical biases in the NFL. "Road Team" Bias: Historically, Shawn Smith is known as the "Road Team Referee." In a league where home teams usually win ~55% of the time, home teams in Smith's games have historically won at a rate far below league average (often hovering around 40-42%). Against The Spread (ATS): The trend is even starker here. Home teams have covered the spread at a rate of roughly 37-40% in his career. The Mechanism: Analysis shows his crew tends to call a higher rate of False Start and Unnecessary Roughness penalties on the Home Team. This negates the traditional home-field advantage (crowd noise causing false starts for the visitors). Impact on This Game: This specific assignment heavily favors the Buccaneers (Road Team). If you believe the referee influences the game, Smith's presence suggests the Panthers will struggle to get "home cooking" calls and may face untimely procedural flags that stall drives. The Panthers have only had Shawn Smith officiate four home games since he became a head referee in 2018, and they are all losses. Date Opponent Result Score Nov 24, 2024 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Loss 27–30 Oct 9, 2022 vs. San Francisco 49ers Loss 15–37 Dec 12, 2021 vs. Atlanta Falcons Loss 21–29 Nov 25, 2018 vs. Seattle Seahawks Loss 27–30 Considering the how rare it is for Shawn Smith to officiate a Panthers game at all, this seems like an odd time to assign him to a Panthers game, unless the NFL wants to kill the Panthers season once and for all. The Panthers' offensive line situation creates a "perfect storm" for referee Shawn Smith's specific tendency to call False Starts on the home team. The "Carousel" Factor (Communication Vulnerability) The most damning stat for the Panthers' offensive line in 2025 is their lack of continuity. The Stat: By Week 13, the Panthers had already fielded their 10th different offensive line combination. The Impact: False starts are often "communication penalties"—they happen when a guard doesn't hear the center's snap count or a tackle anticipates the wrong cadence. A unit that hasn't played together struggles with non-verbal communication. The Shawn Smith Multiplier: Shawn Smith’s crew calls False Starts at a high rate on home teams. He will likely look for flinches on the exterior of the line. A disjointed line that is constantly rotating players (due to the injuries of starters like Cade Mays and the illness issues with Robert Hunt earlier this season) is "fresh meat" for this specific referee bias. The Specific Culprits (2025 Penalties) Ikem Ekwonu (LT): Leads the team with 4 False Start penalties this season. He is the most frequent violator on the line. Taylor Moton (RT): Has been flagged for 3 False Starts. The Trap: Smith’s crew often focuses on the tackles (the players furthest from the ball) jumping early to get an edge on speed rushers. Since Ekwonu struggles with this discipline naturally, having a referee who hunts for it is a massive disadvantage. The "Managed Outcome" Synthesis The "Bucs Cover" Script: If the desired outcome is a Buccaneers win to solidify their playoff standing, the officials simply have to apply the letter of the law. Calling strict False Starts on a confused, banged-up Panthers O-line will consistently put them in "3rd and Long" situations, killing their drives and allowing the Bucs (-3.5) to cover easily. The "Close Game" Script: If the desired outcome is "Week 18 Drama" (keeping the division tied), look for the officials to ignore the Panthers' twitchy tackles. If Ekwonu jumps a split-second early and no flag is thrown, it effectively neutralizes the Bucs' pass rush, allowing the Panthers to keep the score close. Summary of the Edge Vulnerability: Extreme. The Panthers are playing backup interior linemen (like Jake Curhan or practice squad call-ups) next to jumpy tackles. Betting Implication: This strongly reinforces the Bucs -3 or -3.5 play. The combination of a "Road Team Referee" and a "Home Team O-Line in chaos" suggests the Panthers will beat themselves with procedural penalties. Based on the collision of the hard data (Referee bias + Offensive Line injuries) and the soft narratives ("Managed Outcomes"), here is the definitive recommendation. If you have to place a single Moneyline bet to win this game straight up: The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-165) While the "Entertainment Script" hints at a Panthers upset to keep the division messy, the structural disadvantage the Panthers face in this specific matchup is too massive to ignore. Here is why the Buccaneers are the stong moneyline play: 1. The "Shawn Smith" Road-Field Advantage This is the decisive factor. In the NFL, Home Field Advantage usually accounts for about 1.5 to 2 points of value. The Reality: Referee Shawn Smith negates that advantage entirely. His crew calls penalties in a way that historically suppresses home crowd momentum (False Starts, holding). The Result: You are essentially getting the Buccaneers on a neutral field (or even a "pseudo-home" field) against a team with a worse roster. 2. The "Drive-Killer" Synergy To win as an underdog, the Panthers need to play a clean, mistake-free game to keep drives alive. The combination of Panthers' 10th O-Line combo + Jump-prone Tackles (Ekwonu) + A Referee who hunts False Starts is a recipe for disaster. The Scenario: Expect the Panthers to face multiple "1st and 15" or "3rd and 12" situations due to procedural flags. These drive-killers will force them to punt or settle for field goals, while the Bucs' offense (led by Mayfield) stays on schedule. 3. The "TV Product" Counter-Argument You asked about the "Managed Outcome." While a Panthers win creates "chaos," the NFL also values Star Power in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are a proven national TV draw with recent playoff history. If the league has to choose between "Chaos" (Panthers) and "Ratings/Legitimacy" (Bucs), the "Script" likely leans toward ensuring the Buccaneers—the more marketable team—secure the division lead. They won't "fix" the game against the Panthers, but they won't intervene to save them from their own penalties. Final Verdict Betting on the Panthers requires you to hope for a miracle 4th-quarter collapse. Betting on the Buccaneers requires you to trust that a superior roster—aided by a favorable officiating crew—will control the game for the first 45 minutes. Take the Buccaneers Moneyline. The "Safe" money is on the Ref. The Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win and Cover Projected Score: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 17 The Bet: Buccaneers -3 (or Moneyline -165) Confidence Level: High on the Winner; Moderate on the Spread (due to potential "garbage time" variance).

He isn't a good HC. I think he has proved that conclusively.

The missed tackle percentage is on that screen cap.

Okay, that is if there was a three way tie. I suppose I didn't consider that.

I think the NFC is significantly better but we will see how it goes. Could be a very interesting playoffs.

If only there was a way the ball could have been thrown higher. Oh well.

While it says we converted later, it 100% impacted the game. First, the clock stopped on the incompletion and we would have had another 12 yards on tha drive. We didn’t score but the play calls change. Seeing as how we lost on a last second long FG, an extra 12 yards and running the clock down another 17 seconds (or forcing NO to use a timeout) likely means at a minimum we go to OT and at best we score and win the game.

You were hollering about the 20-17 finish fairly early lol. A wizard, you are.

I can tell you with absolute certainty that if the Panthers were playing a team as the betting underdog that would have 100% have stood as a catch. I said in the game thread I'd bet my life savings that catch would be overturned because the game was being managed towards a Saints victory. It's not really super fun to watch the NFL anymore because of the managed outcomes.

This didn't impact the game since we got a 1st on the next play but it's still ridiculous. I love football but it really is a joke, nobody with half a brain and any real world experience believes that the amount of money in sports betting is having 0 effect on the outcomes of these games. It is not healthy for anybody. We have people telling players to kill themselves or talking about doing things to their family because they dropped a pass or didn't get enough yards for their over. We do too much to promote and enable people to be the worst version of themselves. It's only a matter of time before some massive scandal is broken.

The Saints had the ball literally bounce their way multiple times in that game

I've seen enough tape review to see that we run crossers...we have dudes in the middle of the field. I have to think that this is a harder area for someone of Bryce's stature to hit. You have to see directly over the center of the line and is probably where the most interceptions happen (he has thrown a LOT of his picks by not seeing a dude in the middle of the field).

I’m pretty sure we did end up getting the first in that drive, but I don’t remember. It was obviously a catch the ball didn’t move

While I don't think NFL games are fully rigged, it's certainly closer to a scripted outcome than we all think. The NFL by their own admission in court is not a fair and balanced sporting event. It is a managed entertainment product, a "spectacle" as they've put it, that now has sports betting as a huge financial pillar of their business model. It's ridicuously naive to still think the NFL isn't using referees to manage the games towards certain outcomes, using "replays in the booth" and overturning calls, choosing to overlook penalties at critical moments and calling questionable and sometimes phantom game changing penalties at other critical junctures of games. The NFL has always done this going as far back as the '60s, and they were investigated by the FBI in the '70s which found a large number of ownership groups had ties to the mob. So when the overwhelming majority of the moneyline bets were on the Panthers vs the Saints last week, and suddenly we see some strange and ticky tack penalties we've rarely seen called on the Panthers all year, I just know there's more going on behind the scenes. And suddenly next week, the Panthers will probably be nudged to a win, to keep the NFC South race interesting, as I see the Bucs are the favorite as of now and most moneyline bets will trend towards the Bucs until during the game when the Bucs are leading heading into the 4th quarter, and the Panthers are nudged to a win. At least, that's what the NFL and Vegas probably want to happen.

Taylor Moton also slipped and missed his block entirely The oline”s performance was less than stellar in the 4th qtr

There have been quite a few instances this year where there was NO clear evidence to overturn a call, and they did it anyway not in our favor. Whatever happened to indisputable evidence? Anyway, we've been getting hosed by refs for as long as I can remember, notably Peppers bullsh*t running into the kicker penalty. Then the 49ers playoff game, then the superbowl (Cotchery caught that fuggin ball), then the opening night against DEN, etc.

That’s right so they are choosing a play that wouldn’t change the outcome of the game.

At this point the NFL trolling us with the admissions on bad officiating.

I cant remember exactly, but I think Bryce scrambled for a first down the next play anyway

Refs are a joke. I can’t remember what quarter or ever what the score was when this happened, would it have mattered? This wasn’t the only bad call, are they only admitting to a bad call that didn’t change the game?

Everyone knew the catch was secured and didn't move. That was clear to the entire audience. The only ones who thought it wasn't a catch were in the NYC home office. They knew they'd just offer an apology the next day.

NEVER FORGET!!!! Canales was on no one's radar. Tepper couldn't get anyone to come here. He was all in on Ben Johnson. Nobody wants to work with Tepper, however Canales tenure may prove important for the next guy. This guy still has no idea what he's doing.

The 4th down play was poor execution by Chuba. He didn't want to get physical like Rico and cut North South to lean on his blocks from Tremble and Ekwonu for half a yard. Also, the 3rd down play before that Bryce audibled out to a QB run and almost got the 1st down was on Chuba for not knowing the play call leading to poor execution. You can see Chuba's confusion when Bryce had to realign him. Then Chuba thought he was getting the handoff and was slow to develop his double team on the DE with Tremble. Then Chuba hesitated on pushing the block and just ran to the sideline making Bryce have to loop around him. This pulled the DE away from Tremble forcing Chuba to chip on the DE late and leaving the safety as a free defender. Chuba was suppose to double down on the DE to let Tremble peel off to the safety. This allows Bryce to set up his run to the inside or outside after the safety commits. You can also see Tremble walk over to talk to Chuba after the play and Chuba shrugs which tells me he didn't know what to do. The audible would have worked on 3rd and the dive would have worked on 4th. The plays were good calls and drawn up well. The question is why was Chuba unprepared for those plays in two critical back to back plays? I like Chuba as a 1st down RB and passing downs, but I have always seen him lacking the power and vision to be a short yardage power back. Chuba didn't come prepared for the Saints game or he was thrown into a position at the 3 spot that he was never prepared for.

Yeah man, that was a catch. I like to imagine the game isn’t rigged but it’s well known sports betting is ruining the sport. Unfortunately, most coaches plan for 3 phases of the game. But there is really 4, offense, defense, special teams, and special occasions. on special occasions the refs can influence the game, leaving you in positions your actively planning to stay out of and how you respond in those special occasions make or break the game. Other times it’s other reasons. But I like to hope that the right team, or right player can extend past those types of setbacks and still find a way. anywho, probably a pipe dream. But it’s how I see it.