ECHornet

Yes, if a redraft of their draft class were possible, about two thirds of starting tight ends (1 per team) would be selected in the first round (mostly late first).

~2/3 of NFL starting TEs

I quickly googled re-draft articles from 2017-2019. There were 5 TEs taken in the first round of those re-drafts. George Kittle, Evan Engram, Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson, and Irv Smith was borderline first. According to that, on average there are 1-2 TEs each draft worthy of a first round selection. Sure, that will vary from year to year and it may be closer to 1 each draft. I agree with kungfoo that you better nail that pick.

I disagree. The two you mention would be drafted in the top 10, and plenty more would be re-drafted in the first round of their respective drafts.

The answer to that dilemma is limiting the guaranteed portion of the contract to 3 years max and prioritizing roster bonuses over huge signing bonuses for years 4+

My whole point was there ARE tight ends worthy of a first round selection. Yes, it's more risky than other positions. But, if you nail the pick it's worth it. Showing how few tight ends chosen in the first round are worth it would prove my point they weren't valued appropriately.

I addressed your first sentence above. For me, there's more wiggle room to first round value than 'has to be a Kelce or Kittle.' Re: Pitts...I think one of the biggest issues the NFL scouts have drafting TEs in the 1st is they fall in love with the flashy receiving threats. They should be looking for the savvy, well-rounded TEs who utlilize head fakes well and find soft spots in zones. It's not a perfect metaphor, but it's similar to NBA teams prioritizing a long center 'prototype' who can only dunk over the crafty, below the rim guys who offer more production.

I'm not necessarily saying they have to be a Kelce or Kittle to draft in the first round. You have to ask what helps our team next year and over the next four to five. A top notch tight end, if chosen correctly, upgrades one of our biggest weaknesses and makes things easier on the QB we bring in this year or next. That allows for a little more wiggle room than just top 3-5 in the league or bust, imo.

You could argue that evaluations were just off. Tight ends like Kelce and Kittle certainly hold a first round value. The scouts just didn't identify their talents/potential accurately. I agree that it seems good TEs can typically be found on day 2 of the draft, but that doesn't mean a TE will never hold 1st round value.

The current version. The closest comparison I can think of would be Martellus Bennett. I limited myself to just players on the lists in this thread though.

Agree with you. The one benefit to Horn's injuries has been keeping him off lists like this, which lowers his fifth year option price. Otherwise, he'd be on it. If he continues his current level of play, I hope Horn is a Panther through 2030.

Horn is just as good when healthy. I realize the "when healthy" is crucial. I'm not disappointed with the Horn draft pick at all yet.

Is there a situation where a pre/post June assignment can make one of the years apply in '23 and the rest hit in '24?

Maybe a good lesson to stick it out with Tremble. I think he's worthy of TE2 consideration after his rookie contract, and he may develop beyond that. He's still only 22 years old.

I'd take Young over Fields all day.

$3,812,000? Trying to get up to speed on how these contracts work.

More so than ACLs and similar injuries, my subjective view is more guys are getting knocked out or close to it when getting slammed on turf surfaces vs. grass.

If I had to compare playing styles of the top TEs in the upcoming draft to TEs on one of the two lists in this thread... Michael Mayer - Travis Kelce Dalton Kincaid - Evan Engram Tucker Kraft - Mark Andrews Luke Musgrave - Tyler Eifert Darnell Washington - Marcedes Lewis Sam LaPorta - Heath Miller (jersey colors if nothing else) Luke Schoonmaker - Brandon Pettigrew ***Not saying Mayer will become Kelce. Just that his playing style is similar.***

How far out are we, technologically, from having a turf option suitable to players' wishes/comfort? Maybe two years? With all the interest and money floating around on this topic, someone will produce it soon.

Anyone saying the Saints haven't been affected by the 'kicking the can' strategy are misreading their current situation. They lost their top 5 NFL coach due to it and have lost a lot of talent already too. More to come.

For those interested, 1st round TEs in the last 20 years: Dallas Clark - Colts - 2003 Kellen Winslow II - Browns - 2004 Ben Watson - Patriots - 2004 Heath Miller - Steelers - 2005 Marcedes Lewis - Jaguars - 2006 Vernon Davis - 49ers - 2006 Greg Olsen - Bears - 2007 Dustin Keller - Jets - 2008 Brandon Pettigrew - Lions - 2009 Jeremaine Gresham - Bengals - 2010 Tyler Eifert - Bengals - 2013 Eric Ebron - Lions - 2014 OJ Howard - Bucs - 2017 Eric Engram - Giants - 2017 David Njoku - Browns - 2017 Hayden Hurst - Ravens - 2018 TJ Hockenson - Lions - 2019 Noah Fant - Broncos - 2019 Kyle Pitts - Falcons - 2021

I’ve been very happy with Fitt since coming here. It took him no time to build a top 10 OL that looks to have staying power. I’ve been pleased with his drafting too. Plus, I’m a fan of the aggressive moves in the draft and with trades. They won’t all work out, but it keeps it interesting for fans.

Hot take: AT Perry is nearly as good as Quentin Johnston. I think his draft stock will rise to late 1st/early 2nd. Johnston is more sudden which makes him better running routes and after the catch, but I think Perry has better hands.

I was responding to those discussing that as an option. I’m not advocating that being our plan. If Matt Corral/PJ are our starters next year, you’ll witness tanking work.

If the goal is 2024 QB, you have to trade back in the 1st this year and acquire another 2024 1st. Then roll with Matt Corral and maybe a mid/late round QB in 2023. That’s a good recipe to have a top pick in the 2024 draft and ammo to move up if needed. You don’t resign Darnold if that’s the play. He’ll win enough to knock us out of the top 5. Bringing back PJ would be more productive for that goal.