tukafan21

Have you even been reading my posts? I'm not so sure because you seem to insinuate that I'm expecting some monster year 1 season, but I've time and time again said I'm only expecting 800 yards from him as a rookie. Because like you said, it's not in his control, we have a bunch of good receiving options and two 1k yard RBs in what should be a run first offense. And yes, I'm very much a T-Mac homer, I've never once denied it, I'm an Arizona alumni who has been open about that from the very first thread I made about him over 18 months ago. But that doesn't mean I'm blindly expecting him to be an All Pro as a rookie, I just know more about his game than most people here who watch his highlights and breakdowns. Which generally focus on the things he does best and worst to highlight his best abilities (his downfield contested catches) and where he needs to improve (separation) as those are the two things fans care most about when talking about the draft. What those breakdowns don't cover much are the "boring and mundane" things he does very well and exactly what you are talking about needing for Bryce. He was constantly used in the short passing game, whether they be WR screens or quick slants, to get the ball in his hands and let him make plays, it's why he was 5th in the Big 12 in YAC last year. With his size and hands, when he runs a quick 5 yard slant in front of the defender and the QB delivers the ball on time with anticipation, creating buckets of separation isn't needed, he's going to make the catch and then get some YAC for a 1st down. Go watch the 30 minute YT videos that string together every catch he made last year (or the same thing from 2023) and you'll see those plays constantly, but in the analyst breakdowns leading into the draft those things don't get discussed as much as the big plays and then the things he needs to work on, because they're just not as "sexy" to talk about as those. Per your ask... He has 3 main things he needs to improve upon, and again, "needing to improve" doesn't mean "he's terrible" at them, just things he can get better at, like all young players have things to work on. 1. His get off at the snap. For all the amazing things he did for us at Arizona, this was always the thing that would frustrate me the most, as he generally was a bit slow to fire off the line. The nice thing is even in the minimal clips we've seen from rookie mini camp, his initial fire off the line already appears to have been sped up a lot, he clearly has been working on that in the lead up to the draft. 2. His separation Yea, he's not a 6' quick twitch athlete, so his separation is never going to be at the level of a Chase or Jefferson. I've always admitted that, but because he's not one of those guys, he also brings a lot of things that those others can't. His catch radius and hands are why I'm not as concerned about his separation, because he's so good at making those contested catches by snatching the ball away from his body to where the defender can't get to it to break it up. But yes, he does still need to get better here, just as all rookies have things to improve upon. 3. Using his body more physically This is something that he did at times, but he also is just a great athlete for his size and would often rely on his physical abilities to make defenders miss him in the open field than just power through them, which is fine in college. But yes, at the next level, as he gets older and stronger, I'd like to see him use it more like Evans does, and that will come with time as he builds strength and develops that part of his game. Again, I implore you to to spend an hour watching those "Every catch from the X season" for his last two years in college. If/when you do, I think you're going to be very surprised by the number of times we used him in the short passing game and let him gain YAC to move the ball down the field.

I've watched literally every single snap of T-Mac's career, there isn't a person on these boards who knows his game better than I do. And I'm telling you, he is a great fit for what Bryce does well, period. You keep talking about these "get open quick WRs" as what Bryce needs, but I couldn't disagree more, because it blatantly disregards what Bryce does best. AND NO.... that's not me saying we don't need any "get open quick" type of WRs, I've long said we still needed one of those in addition to a true outside #1, but it's not the only type of WR that can be a successful pairing with Bryce. Bryce's biggest strength is his mental side of the game, he reads defenses and plays chess instead of checkers. That type of QB doesn't need to rely on his WR's to quickly create acres of separation because their mental side of the game will mean they are going to put the ball on the WR when they create even minimal separation, as he's going to anticipate it and throw the ball before the WR has even made his cut on the route. AND THAT is where and why Bryce and T-Mac are a great pairing. When you have a guy with T-Mac's hands and catch radius, he doesn't need 5 yards of separation to get open and have Bryce then get the ball to him. Bryce is going to be throwing the ball before he even makes his cut, so even if all T-Mac is able to do is create 1 yard of separation, the ball is getting to him when he creates that and because of his hands and size, he's plucking that ball out of the air before the defender even has a chance to close that 1 yard, because the ball is there as soon as T-Mac creates the room and turns his head.

Which, again, is why T-Mac and Bryce make for a great pairing. Bryce isn't a "throw it past the defense and let a speedster chase it down" type of deep ball thrower, his deep ball is more of a jump ball because he doesn't have a cannon for an arm. Who know who is great at deep jump balls? T-Mac Who know who is also pretty darn good at running short routes for quick passes? T-Mac Too many people have only watched his highlight reels, which usually consist of the crazy catches he makes, not the mundane ones where he runs a short slant across the middle for quick pass and runs for 10 yards for a first down. He was 5th in the Big 12 in YAC last year, but because he's more well known for the crazy contested catches he's able to make, people just assume that's all he can do and he doesn't have YAC ability, which couldn't be more incorrect.

Because most fans are stupid who can't understand the reasoning behind stats and can only look at individual player statistics in a vacuum. See my previous post for full breakdown lol

If those are T-Mac's first 2 seasons, then yes, our fans will be calling him a bust for sure. But raw stats after the fact don't tell the full story, it all depends how they happen. And to everyone who keeps saying he needs to get to 1,000 yard as a rookie because that's what elite rookie WRs do now, they keep just looking at things in a vacuum and not the full picture. Usually the rookies who get to that mark are the only legitimate option in the passing attack for those teams. Anyone trying to point to guys like Nabers or BTJ last year are completely missing the point, T-Mac is not in remotely close to the same situation and is far more similar to MHJ and Odunze last year. The Giants 2nd and 3rd WRs last year were Wan'Dale Robinson and Slayton who had 699 and 573 yards, their 4th leading WR had a grand total of 62 yards in 16 games (their 3rd-7th leading rec yards were TE's and RBs). The Jags 2nd and 3rd WRs last year were Parker Washington and Kirk with 390 and 379 yards, while their 4th WR was Gabe Davis with 239 (while their 2nd leading rec yards was a TE with 411). The Cardinals had McBride with 111 catches for 1,146 yards The Bears had Moore with 98 for 966 and Allen with 70 for 744 Thielen, XL, Coker are absurdly better than the other WR options the Giants and Jags had last year, there is a real argument to make that our 4th best WR was better than those team's 2nd best. That alone is a huge hurdle to T-Mac getting to the 1,000 yard mark as a rookie, no matter how ready he may or may not be. MHJ was supposed to be the most pro-ready WR prospect in a LONG time and having McBride there was the main reason he finished with "only" 885 yards as a rookie.

Not sure what you're trying to say here, at least in terms of why this was the response to my post. I'm not saying he's going to struggle, I'm saying the exact opposite, that he's going to be a successful rookie directly because he's NOT a developmental project. I've said before my expectations are 800 yards and 10 TDs, but he very well could get over 1,000. I'm not going to EXPECT 1,000 because I do think we're going to be a run first team and Thielen is still going to be Bryce's safety valve just because of their history together, so it's unrealistic for me to say that's my expectation, but it's certainly more than possible. And if you were to tell me right now that Thielen has 600 or less yards this year, then I'd change my T-Mac expectation to the 1,000 yard mark, but I think it's more likely that Thielen leads the team in yards if he plays a full season healthy and then T-Mac explodes in year 2 for 1,200+ when all those Thielen targets are up for grabs.

He played in the Big 12 last year, not like he was in the MAC or something. Also, in 2023 for the last year of the Pac 12, they legit might have been the best conference in the nation that year when he had 90 catches for 1,402 yards and 10 TDs in a season where they played against 7 ranked teams and 4 of the 7 were Top 12 teams when they played. Not being a great separator doesn't mean he's a developmental prospect, especially when that is almost his only weakness and he still put up over 2,700 yards in his final 2 seasons of college. It just means he has something to work on, but he's basically the picture perfect definition of NOT a developmental prospect but someone who should be able to produce immediately. XL with his 5 years in college but only 1 season of production with weak route running and questionable hands but elite athleticism, THAT is the definition of a developmental project. I love how the T-Mac haters only focus on the things they think he does poorly and needs to improve upon and extrapolate that out to mean he's not that good and needs time to develop, but completely disregard the stats he put up with those "problems." If he was as bad at those things that the haters like to insinuate, he'd never have been able to do what he did in college, level of competition aside, which again is still far better than people want to give it credit for anyways.

What signs are pointing to T-Mac having a developmental window? If anything, it's literally the opposite. He's one of the more accomplished and polished WRs to come out of college in a long time. Not many players have 3 years of production like he had and then enter the draft early. Yes, there are things he needs to improve, just like every rookie, but he is NOTHING like XL in terms of needing a developmental season, literally couldn't be more different of situations. I've also pointed out how T-Mac and Bryce are actually very much a natural pairing for each other. Bryce is a touch passer who throws with anticipation because he doesn't have the rifle to squeeze into tight windows when they are there. Which pairs perfectly with T-Mac's hands and catch radius as Bryce will be able to place the ball where only he can get his hands on the ball. What a terrible take

If a team with BTJ and Hunter are able to get Dyami Brown to be matched up with our top CB just with where they line them up and we're not able to adjust on the fly, then Evero should be fired before the game is even over.

Well two things, first is that it wasn't just about seeing a good matchup, it was getting the college matchup re-match between the two of them and current Top 10 picks. And second, I doubt we see all too much of Jaycee vs Hunter either, I'd think we'd be more likely to have Jaycee on BTJ more often than the rookie in his first game.

The leak was true, just wish we weren’t playing the Jags week 1 because I don’t expect Hunter to be playing a ton of CB early and I was looking forward to the T-Mac vs Hunter re-match.

You're making conflicting arguments here though. If you want to say we don't have ideal depth and need another Safety for that reason, okay, that's fair. But if you want to talk about "the future at safety" then there is only one possible answer there, and he's already on the roster with Ransom. No FA out there right now is someone who would be a FS of the future for us, they'd all be one year fill-in's until we can replace them next offseason with a long term solution. So if there is anyone with even a remote possibility of playing FS for us this year and then being our long term solution there, it's Ransom. Which is why I say throw him out there as the starter in Week 1 unless he severely struggles in camp. The only way we'll know if we found a cheap FS for the next 3-4 years is by playing him and seeing if he can do the job. If he proves he can be the guy, then we have a minimal cap hit solution at FS through the 2028 season and can use that cap space and draft picks next year towards pass rushers, LB's, and/or a C or RT of the future. If he struggles and we see he needs to be a backup SS for us instead, then we turn around and use those assets next offseason to find the long term solution. But signing a 1 year rental to play there takes that possibility away while also eating into the cap room we could roll over into next year.

Or just don't spend that money and roll it over to next year's cap space to be able to bring in a true impact player instead of just a JAG for this season. We're not contending this year, play the long game for once.

I still don't understand how this guy wasn't cast as Madden, he's a great actor and would have been perfect in the role

Ugh, hope this ends up not being true, was really hoping we'd play them later in the season if the reports of the Jags plans with Hunter end up being true. It very much sounds like their plan is to make him a WR initially, and while he might take some defensive snaps early, their plan is to more slowly bring him along on that side of the ball so he can properly acclimate to the NFL first and focus on the offense. Which means if we play in Week 1, it will mean we won't see much of T-Mac vs Hunter, and I was really looking forward to that re-match between them this year, which might have seen them matchup more if played later in the season.

I don't disagree, but you're not giving our offense enough credit, and I'm not saying we would win the SB, just that we would be contenders, which we would have been. The Bengals had a horrible start to the season last year and it caused them to just miss the playoffs by one game, but had they made it, they absolutely would have been contenders in the AFC. They had a bad defense, probably worse than ours will be this year, and you can't convince me that we don't have a better offensive roster than they had last year. We have a Top 10 OL, two 1k rushers from last year, two 1st round WRs, one of the best slot WRs in the league, and then Coker. Like I said, their Top 2 WRs are better than ours will be this year, but we take them in every other spot, OL, RBx2, and our 3rd/4th WRs. If Burrow was able to turn that team into a contender last year, no reason he couldn't do the same with our roster this year. And hell, I think our offensive roster is better than KC's last year too, and while I know their defense did a lot of the heavy lifting last year, if you give Mahomes an improved offensive roster around him, he's going to be THAT much better himself. A Mahomes, Burrow, or Allen would be able to win the South by outscoring teams. And yes, come playoff time against an Eagles or Lions juggernaut, our defense probably costs us the game, but that doesn't mean we wouldn't at least be contenders. If Bryce can prove me wrong and his supporters here right, and be THAT guy for us this year, I genuinely think we can be a real playoff threat in 2026 once we add a few more pieces to the defense and then be a genuine SB contender in 2027 if the team keeps improving. We're the 2022 Detroit Lions right now. Great offensive pieces, tons of holes on defense, but if things go right we'll just miss the playoffs (like they did) and then be right in the playoff hunt the next year (like they did) and then be contenders the following season (like they did when they were the #1 seed).

Yep, I'm starting Ransom unless he struggles in camp. We're not contending this year, don't spend any more cap space at this point unless we have to, roll the extra space over into next offseason at this point. If he proves he can be a starter next to Moehrig, great, we just got a cheap starter for a few more seasons and can use the cap space at more impactful positions. If he struggles, then we have our backup SS and we sign a new FS or use a earlier pick on one next summer.

This is the answer if you can't go with a QB. But I think Mahomes, Allen, or Burrow could make the offense good enough to have a SB caliber team in spite of the defense. Great OL with a ton of weapons, even if they're young outside of Thielen, I think those 3 could have us contending this year. We'd basically be very similar to the Bengals last year, who just missed the playoffs because of their terrible start to the season, but if they snuck in, they'd have been as dangerous as any team in the AFC last year. They gave up the 7th most points in the league last year but still had a positive points differential. Chase/Higgins is better than T-Mac/XL of course, but Thielen is a crazy upgrade over Iosivas in the slot, Coker is far better than 4th WR who had 107 yards in 14 games, we have a significantly better OL, and Chuba/Rico is better than Brown/Moss last year. So combine our offense with an improved if not yet great defense, and yea, one of those 3 QB's would win the South with us and be a contender. Now we may not actually win a SB because of the defense come playoff time, but we'd be contenders. So actually, maybe we'd be last year's Lions just without the injuries being why the defense wasn't good enough?

Horn and T-Mac will get matched up a lot, but it won't be 100% of the time, nor should it be anything close to that. Yes, it would benefit T-Mac's ability to get better at beating the press, but it would also be a detriment both of them for them to be matched up too much more than 50% of their reps. Neither is likely to end up going up against similar players in games, not many teams have WRs the size of T-Mac and not many teams have CB's with the physicality of Horn. Horn needs to work on covering smaller shiftier WRs as well, just as T-Mac needs plenty of reps against smaller CBs so he can work on using his frame to body them out of position.

It's literally plain and simple that T-Mac has a higher ceiling, nobody who knows anything about football and has a sane mind would say otherwise.

If you legitimately think XL has a higher ceiling than T-Mac, then you're out of your mind delusional. Sorry, but that's just nonsense.

LOL, being faster and stronger doesn't mean he will be a better player "if everything clicks" (and you say bigger, but that's just in bulk, which is strength said another way, he measured 6'1" at the combine vs 6'4 1/8" for T-Mac) It's just a beyond absurdly simplistic view of things. To begin with, no matter how much things click for XL, he will never have the catch radius that T-Mac has and he will never have the hands that T-Mac has. Period. That alone will always have him as a better red zone threat than XL could ever be, I don't care how much he improves, T-Mac will always be Bryce's top option there. He also will likely never have the innate WR ability that T-Mac has, which is something that you can't put a statistic or clear cut attribute to, but you don't play 5 years in college and a rookie season still looking this raw and then develop that type of feel for the game, even if you improve your issues. It's a reason T-Mac and Bryce actually made a good pairing, because they're going to be able to share a mind out there at times, it's what made T-Mac and Fifita so dangerous together too. T-Mac came into college with an advanced feel for the game and position, something he keeps getting better at and XL still doesn't show. It's like you're then saying T-Mac has no ability to improve on his weaknesses, as you can't say he's better than XL right now, but if things click for XL, T-Mac can't stay better by also getting better himself. T-Mac's ceiling is as a Top 5 WR, XL is never going to be that, and I say that as a fan of his. His ceiling is as a Top 20, borderline Top 15 type of guy, and there isn't anything wrong with that.

And as I asked this again before, what goes into PFF's man open %, as I know you've brought that stat up before. Is that just the number of routes he gets open at any point during the route, or is it calculated on targets and if he was open when the ball got to him. Because like I pointed out so many times in the lead up to the draft, a big reason it was harder for him to get separation against man was because he not only had his man on him, but he was double or triple teamed on the majority of his routes this past year. Just because of that alone, it was easier for him to get open against zone coverage where he could find holes and sit in them. Also, again, as been discussed so many times, his QB's play this year was awful, and lots of times his contested catches were due to him not delivering the ball on time when T-Mac got open. Or just times he got open but wasn't targeted for whatever reason. So just using that stat as a way to say he struggles to get open against man is more likely than not, disingenuous. Hell, it's a PFF stat that you're using against him, yet at the same time, PFF absolutely loves him, he was their 4th overall player. I posted this clip on here a week or so ago of the T-Mac vs Hunter game in 2023, where the anti T-Mac guys like to say Hunter shut him down. But numerous times in this video you see T-Mac create tons of separation from Hunter but the ball wasn't thrown his way, plus a clear PI that wasn't called (and the one that was). https://x.com/4MR_Fetti/status/1918262063660454227 The "he can't separate" narrative is way overblown and become something more myth than reality. No, he's not an elite separator like some of the quick twitch WRs, but he's so much better than the haters here like to say.

I never said he was perfect, but his floor is still as a low end #1, I honestly think his floor in this league is around the 25th best WR in the league, and that's if he doesn't improve on anything but just continues to be the player he is right now. So I really hope you just mean XL's ceiling is higher than T-Mac's floor since I was saying it wasn't. Because there literally just isn't any world where XL's ceiling is higher than T-Mac's ceiling, it would be one of the more asinine statements to say XL's was higher.

I mean this as no slight to XL, as I personally do still love his potential as a high end #2 if he can cut back on the drops and crisp up his routes a bit, as he has some elite physical traits for sure. But XL's ceiling is probably lower than T-Mac's floor, so you just can't say we didn't need T-Mac because we have XL, that's just crazy talk.