Bear Hands

Wouldn't be thrilled with this. The WR market is pretty meh and the draft is as well. If we somehow land a weapon via trade, it needs to be a game changer. We have young talent that I don't want stunted by older fillers. This should happen only if a prime candidate who can truly make an impact is there, but if we're just grabbing a starter for a year or two, it doesn't serve us well for the build around Bryce and co. Trade candidates in that respect would be a guy like Pittman or Wilson.

I think you gotta stay BPA with the front-7 weighted. But sitting at 8, knowing at least Carter, Hunter, & Ward go ahead...Sanders likely as well, and how much teams value OLs, a top defender will be there. It's likely going to come down to Graham, Johnson, Pearce, & J Walker. And if a guy we label as a blue chip/all-pro ceiling is there, he's going over an edge rusher in our next board block. You stick to the board, don't let need overtake you, get the top talent who slips. That's what the new champs have done with Carter, Mitchell, & Nolan Smith. They fell right into their laps and happened to fit needs. We're positioned this year to grab a guy who slips because the crap teams ahead of us continue to make bad decisions. So let's stop making bad decisions ourselves and reaching. Some of our best picks fell into our laps bc other teams were busy reaching (Star, Luke, etc.) Round 1 is about choosing the right guy, not the right position. And overall, we drafted 21 defensive players with our last 36 draft picks. We just need to start hitting more than missing.

They draft very very well. A lot of guys who needed some development started shining this year. Nakobe Dean, Nolan Smith, Jordan Davis, all came through this season. Milton comes up big last night. Teams keep letting top talent drop to them in R1 ha

Also - I kind of like your Will Johnson take; if Quinyon was in this draft, he'd be ahead of WJ. If injuries weren't there, Benjamin Morrison would be CB1 this year - elite press corner, ballhawk, run support. His knock is he's just not the physical man type prototype, but he's gonna be making plays in the NFL.

Nice write up. Not sure I agree with the Pearce Jr assessment as he's a strong run defender and one of the few 3-down EDGEs in this class that aren't either just edge setters or PR specialists. He's got sneaky power and he could easily fill into around 260. Top of class run stop rate % (10.1) and pass rush win rate (23.0%) -pff And he's just really strong on tape IMO. Has great decisiveness with peeling off blocks to laterally get to runners. Top tier spatial awareness/understanding of what's going on. The awareness also came in handy when TEN pulled him back and he stepped into coverage instead of rushing. Huge added ability that not many of the bigger guys can pull off. Bend - check, burst - check (explosive), hands -check, run defense - check. I've seen a Leonard Floyd comp which I think makes some sense.

I’m not a fan of being overly aggressive with trades in the NFL but Parsons is one to call about. They supposedly loved Brooks, they already took Mingo off our hands, I’m sure we can work something out lol.

Not pick 53? Hehe

It's been said - Jewell & Wallace are our ILBs Long shot Shaq returns on a cheap deal to backup (or maybe start?..but I doubt it with him being a long timer/Evero never being the guy to pick him). See us signing a new FA or drafting another one in the mid rounds for depth. And unless we offload, Clowney & Wonnum are the OLBs (and hopefully Pearce/Green/etc via R1). DJJ will still be dicking around as well.

That’s a similar lens that I’m looking at through the potential 3-down edge talent. Though the pressure rate numbers are a tad different than on PFF. Must have an added metric that keeps them low vs Pass Rush Win rate. Carter’s Win rate for example is 22.6 on PFF

I’m a Will Johnson fan but I think Benjamin Morrison ends up CB1. Massive appeal with him in the scouting community right now.

Cowboys have all but confirmed Brian Schottenheimer Down to NO

Not so sure there's a run, but if there's any QB that's rising, I agree -- I see Dart over Milroe and others. Much better skillset and is an accurate passer with size and athleticism. Top intermediate game, much higher capabilities as a pro-passer than Milroe. It bugs me he's coming out of Ole Miss though, that system can be deceiving as we all know.

I like Pearce Jr. a ton. I see rather short-sided mocks dropping him but when you look at the big picture, scouts want a few things with top edge talent and he checks a lot of boxes: Size - check Bend - check Burst - check Run defense - check (top of class run stop rate) Good, consistent tape - check And then when the analytics departments start checking him out.... Pass Rush/Pressure metrics - HUGE check - 2024 alone: 43 hurries, 22.7% win rate, created consistent pressure within 2.5 seconds of the snap (big for Canales' philosophy IMO) *He's also a Charlotte native so likely grew up a Panthers fan. PR Win Rate is not an end all/be all stat, but it becomes one when you separate the pass-rush specialists from the 3-down types. So looking at the other (potential) 3-down types-- You have Shermar Stewart for example, who's a good, not great at run-d, he's at 12%, not good and it showed at times. He disappeared for stretches. Most successful guys are at least in that mid-teens range. Kennard, who has had flashes, but inconsistent, is not good in run-d, and his win rate is only 13%. Huge red flag IMO.

haven’t really been a fan of any of our kickers since Kasay. Would be nice to draft one and stick with him.

Will say, as I've dug into things, Mike Green is absolutely legit. There are only 3 appropriately-sized guys in this class with over a 20% PR win rate, 99 percentile PR skills: Abdul Carter, James Pierce, & Mike Green. All 3 of those guys are 3-4 molds, but not undersized or poor in run-d grade by any means. Will say, Pierce would not be a bad option at 8 if Graham IDL & Johnson DB are gone. Those 3 are the top. I find it hard to dispute. Gillette arguably falls into this category, but his run-d isn't at their level or else he'd be viewed much higher in this class. Then comes the appeal of Jalon Walker who's this offball/edge hybrid. Overall, just a stud football player. Then there's the consistent, hard-nose, above average type in Sawyer. Nothing flashy, but he's a known commodity, seems like a dude primed to join an upper midwest team. But the guys floating around 10% PR win rates that aren't necessarily stud run defenders, I just don't want much part of. Mykel, Shermar, Kennard are the types that worry me. Now, the pass rush specialists, give me those guys like JT, Princely (stud), Donavon Ez in R2-4...instantly insert them into our sub packages, PR downs and let them cook. Some really interesting options.

lol what have I done

I don't know, I don't see who's stock could realistically rise this draft. These guys just aren't that good of prospects and the tape ain't great either. Milroe is a bit more like a Kellen Mond for me. Not as physically imposing as AR. Has the dual ability, athletic traits, arm, but really no feel as a QB (okay, some similarities lol). All the essentials like pocket awareness, anticipation throws, seeing the layers of live play, it's just not what you want as a QB. Zone-read skills, but no consistency and hasn't really shown he can be that field general. Lower than expected adjusted percentages, SUPER low pressure grades. Just a toolsy-QB IMO. Nix was way more consistent his final year than Ewers and is way more accurate with his deep balls. In addition, Ewers does not have the agility Nix has. Think they're quite different. Something just hasn't clicked yet with QE. He never found his go-to "guy" in school, really had a problem finding and staying in rhythm. And for having so much talent around him, he just never produced what you think he should have. Nix on the other hand was able to go bonkers with Tez, Bucky & Franklin at Oregon, also just had excellent mechanics and good velocity that could trick you to thinking his arm's more powerful than it is. Kyle McCord could be a guy to watch. But at highest, he could rise to R2. I just see Ward & Sanders at the top, but I'm unsure I'd even classify them as 1sts. Many speculated (Brugler, Sando, others) before decisions were made last year that Ward was viewed as a 4th rounder at best developmental...and that was after 2 really positive seasons at WSU. This may not be common sentiment, but I wouldn't take Ward or Sanders over Penix or Nix.

Yeah I should have noted they aren’t listing Walker as an Edge defender on their site but he can totally play there as well as offball.

The draft season shakeups are starting to begin on ranking boards. PFF now has 7 ED ranked in the first round. Albeit that’s relative to this draft class, not necessarily 1st round grades. https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2025 Notable: Position/Overall Ranking/Name 1/2 Abdul Carter 2/9 James Pearce (somewhat surprised) 3/11 Mike Green (surprise, high climber) 4/18 Mykel Williams (fell) 5/20 Shemar Stewart 6/22 Jack Sawyer (climbing) 7/25 Nic Scourton (fell) 8/33 Donovan Ezeiruaku (climber) 9/38 Landon Jackson 10/39 Princely Umanmielen (surprise/slight fall, but high upside) 11/44 JT Tuimoloau (personally, I like him for us R2)

I quite like the Blackmon idea - he’s a good DB

Counter to the assumed notion, the value of RBs is actually increasing but was at its lowest dip in its history a few years ago, so its still pretty damn low. The best of the best could start getting better contracts but that lowest valley was around 2021/2022. Teams that have infrastructure to comfortably add that high-quality sparkplug can get studs higher. We are not one of those teams....(will be interesting to see who pops for Jeanty- Bengals? Cowboys?) And the problem is Brooks isn't just that bit. What I found interesting was that most/if not all the higher mid rounders like him (IR), Corum, Benson, & Lloyd didn't quite show up. Yet you had Bucky Irving, Tyron Tracy, & Ray Davis finding roles without major injuries ahead of them. He wasn't in that gamebreaker class. So, it's not that RBs shouldn't be selected in the 1st/2nd type argument, it's more the expectation of what that type of R2 selection should be adding to your team. He just didn't make sense for us. Guys like Frazier or Sainristil did. Unless it's generational, that sweet spot is R4-5 IMO for RBs. Heck, we have the 8th-11ish best rated RB in 2024 on this roster and he was a 2020 4th.

Could be the year of Barkley & Henry squaring off in the big game... Stafford played his butt off. Felt bad for Limmer, he did really well today and then botched that assignment at the end. Solid game.

Limmer is really holding his own

Luvu had the open market he wanted to test, and honestly, it seemed like he was preferential to elsewhere even if the money was similar. Chinn was the 2020 runner-up DROY. His type of talent doesn't just not fit but I guess the 2 high shell isn't optimal - we just couldn't use him the way Snow did. He's a fit with the now more hybrid-Cover 3 defense Quinn deploys.

We'll see. I think it would be hard to slow down WAS right now. PHI/Kellen Moore can call duds and Stafford has shown his age (although they've had great flashes). At full strength, I still feel BAL is the best team, but you can't deny Mahomes. He's like damn Brady in his prime. The BAL/BUF game is gearing to be THE game this season.