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USA vs GER

Happy Panther

By Happy Panther,
in Charlotte Football Club

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Achilles Explorer

Achilles

Posted
Posted

Germany will not want to risk losing this game. If they lose it, they will have to go across the draw and play most likely Belgium. If they tie or win they will stay on the Brazil side and most likely play Algeria. Germans are practical, pragmatic people. If we were playing a team from South America, Asia, or Africa, I would expect that team to push forward and try to win, but German culture is not like that. They don't simply react emotionally to a challenge. They will remain calm and in control. They could certainly beat the US even without trying, just because they are so talented and clinical in the final third. But, I don't think they will look to press the issue and risk leaving their defense exposed to the formidable US counter attack.

This will be a game where both teams play to minimize exposure. I don't look for a dynamic contest, but instead a very static one with little in the way of attacking play.

A draw favors both teams and eliminates the rest of the competition. It's not collusion, just smart group play football.

Why would either of these teams risk injury, loss, or fitness just to prove a point and win the group? It only makes sense to get a mutual draw and move on.

Sent from my iPad using CarolinaHuddle

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Goondal Newbie

Goondal

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I keep seeing all these odds that say the USA is around 80% to advance.  I am not buying it.  Maybe I am underrating Portugal or overrating Ghana but I think Ghana is going to beat them like a drum.

 

Portugal's only chance of advancing winning by a lot and making up a five goal differential against USA.  They have no choice but to come out and attack, which can lead to mistakes.  If they score first then maybe, but if Ghana goes up early I think Portugal is going to pack it in, they just seem mentally weak to me.

 

At that point, Ghana will be looking to pour it on.  They need to win by two to assure advancement with a German victory.  One goal victories by both and it goes to Goals Scored, which is another reason for Ghana to push.  Finally, should USA actually win then Ghana needs four or five to knock out Germany.  So they have every reason to keep scoring and Portugal has no reason to keep going should they get down early.  USA needs a draw.

 

I do not expect Germany to come out playing for a draw, but if we get to the hour mark and Ghana is up a couple then I see the both teams playing for it from that point.  I still have a bad feeling though, if I was betting on it I would take the odds on Ghana advancing.

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DirtyMagic97 Newbie

DirtyMagic97

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I keep seeing all these odds that say the USA is around 80% to advance.  I am not buying it.  Maybe I am underrating Portugal or overrating Ghana but I think Ghana is going to beat them like a drum.

 

Portugal's only chance of advancing winning by a lot and making up a five goal differential against USA.  They have no choice but to come out and attack, which can lead to mistakes.  If they score first then maybe, but if Ghana goes up early I think Portugal is going to pack it in, they just seem mentally weak to me.

 

At that point, Ghana will be looking to pour it on.  They need to win by two to assure advancement with a German victory.  One goal victories by both and it goes to Goals Scored, which is another reason for Ghana to push.  Finally, should USA actually win then Ghana needs four or five to knock out Germany.  So they have every reason to keep scoring and Portugal has no reason to keep going should they get down early.  USA needs a draw.

 

I do not expect Germany to come out playing for a draw, but if we get to the hour mark and Ghana is up a couple then I see the both teams playing for it from that point.  I still have a bad feeling though, if I was betting on it I would take the odds on Ghana advancing.

 

Ghana has scored like 9 total goals in 9 matches in 2014. They can't catch Germany on GD. The Germans have nothing more to gain from winning by 10 goals than they do from a draw. They are also no strangers to gamesmanship. They'd much rather play Algeria than Belgium, so why risk it?

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DirtyMagic97 Newbie

DirtyMagic97

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I mean, I know Germany probably wants to live down the shame of Gijon, but I still don't see them coming out uber aggressive. They may go forward, but I don't expect to see the typical German high line. That's what got them in trouble last WC, as well as Euro 2012. They are prone to counter-attack.

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CarolinaPanthers8789 Newbie

CarolinaPanthers8789

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Some more scenarios. Interestingly there are a handful of results that end up with a coin flip (or drawing of lots?). Also almost any one goal win by portugal get's us in.

Bqxz9eKIEAA6o_a.png

Based on that image, there is a 55% chance that we advance assuming the coin flip doesn't go our way and a 57% chance that we do advance assuming the coin flip goes our way. However, the way Portugal has played and the way Ghana has played along with the powerhouse that Germany is; I would calculate that as a 10% swing knocking our chances of advancing down to anywhere between 45% and 47%.

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Goondal Newbie

Goondal

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Ghana has scored like 9 total goals in 9 matches in 2014. They can't catch Germany on GD. The Germans have nothing more to gain from winning by 10 goals than they do from a draw. They are also no strangers to gamesmanship. They'd much rather play Algeria than Belgium, so why risk it?

 

I did not mean that Germany would want to score ten goals, I meant that it is just another reason for Ghana to keep scoring in case Germany loses.  If USA wins 1-0 and Ghana scored four against Portugal then they would still move on, not that I expect that to happen in the slightest.

 

Regardless of how Ghana has done for the year, they look a lot better than Portugal and if they get up early then Portugal is basically done.  Portugal needs to win by four or five, so they are going to be attacking from the start which will leave them vulnerable to giving up an early goal and if they do I could see them mentally quitting while Ghana keeps attacking.  USA is going to need a draw because I do not expect Portugal to help them.

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