Panthers Red Zone improvement

[Peppers90 NC]

2 hours ago, UpstatePanther said:

I find it interesting that a week after a near-complete performance (WAS), the defense has to carry our offense (DAL), and does so with flying colors. Then a week after that (NO), the offense has to carry the defense. Just goes to show how good this team is. We match up well against everybody. We can beat anybody becsuse we can beat them with offense or defense. 

Man I can't wait for the playoffs. Bring on AZ, Minny, and Seattle! I wish we could play all three of them in the playoffs! Haha but at this point that would require a meteoric collapse and I'm still hoping for 19-0! haha

I wouldnt say the defense HAD to carry us against Dallas, they just struck first and second and third. After that, the offense kinda coasted, we didnt have to reveal anything there.

[KB_fan]

Interesting...  BBR today tweeted some of Matt Ryan's Red Zone stats (during their recent losing streak)

Black & Blue Review ‏@BlackBlueReview 19m19 minutes ago

Falcons 11-of-24 in red zone during 6-of-7 skid. In those situations, Matt Ryan’s gone 23-for-42 w/10 TD, 3 INT & 3 fumbles.

 

I'm trusting that our defense is gonna add to those turnover numbers!!

[KB_fan]

Interesting comments by Falcons coach Dan Quinn about Cam in the Red Zone and other clutch situations.

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Opposing-View-Panthers-vs-Falcons/3a6b9d60-6028-450d-8b50-52912576c16a

Quote

On what he is seeing out of Cam Newton in red zone and fourth quarter: "One of the best traits of a competitor is his ability to finish and that’s the thing that jumps out to you. When the game is at hand, it doesn’t have to be the last drive. Sometimes the game is at hand on a third down in the middle of the fourth quarter. Sometimes, you know when those defining times happen? And he makes a play, he scrambles for one on third down in the red zone, he’s able to, whether it’s run it in or rip a ball in for a touchdown. Those are kind of the defining ones as a competitor and it feels like he went through another ceiling to say, 'Yeah, I’m going to take it up to even a different spot,' and that’s what I see so far in the film this year.

 

[CPantherKing]

1 hour ago, ecu88 said:

@KB_fan

What has been our average drive distance this year and how has it compared to the other Cam Newton years?

2015 - 60.5 yards. 13th

2014 - 59.0 yards. 18th

2013 - 57.5 yards. 14th

2012 - 66.8 yards. 29th

2011 - 64.4 yards. 31st

----------

When measuring the productivity of an offense relative to the outcome of games I prefer to look at drives by an offense when trailing in a game. This cuts through a lot of the garbage statistics that are a product of a system. There are many ways to run an offense, but it all comes down to how an offense responds when it is placed in a trailing position.

In 2015 to date, there are only 3 offenses above a 50% scoring percentage when trailing in a game - Patriots at 59%, Cardinals at 57% and Panthers at 56%. On scoring drives when trailing, the Panthers average 5.6 points, the Patriots average 5.3 points, and the Cardinals average 4.7 points.

The Panthers are converting touchdowns to field goals on scoring drives while trailing at a 7:1 rate. Their average start position on these drives is at their own 21 yard line and they average 77 yards on 9 plays over 4 minutes per drive. That is insane when you consider most teams are at a 1:1 rate like the Cardinals and the Patriots are 3 deviations (elite) above the mean at a 3:1 touchdown rate. 

For comparison, the Cardinals average start position on these drives is at their own 33 yard line and they average 60 yards on 7 plays at 3 minutes per drive. The Patriots average start position on these drives is at their own 33 yard line and they average 61 yards on 7 plays at 2m 40s per drive.

In the 4th quarter and OT when trailing, the scoring percentages jump - Panthers at 83%, Patriots at 67%, and Cardinals at 57%. The Broncos jump the Cardinals and come in at 67%.

As a side note, teams turn the ball over when trailing per drive: 18% Cardinals, 15% Panthers, and 9% Patriots. The Cardinals turn the ball over often (23rd in the NFL per drive).

This without a doubt tells you who to put your money on if these offenses were involved in a shoot out.

[CRA]

as the pass game slows down....Cam simply will evolve into the greatest redzone threat/mismatch in NFL history.  IMO.  No player stresses a D down their like Cam does.   Now that he is understanding defenses better and able to adjust his O?   Getting tough for people to stop him

[stankowalski]

Yeah I'm thinking there is some correlation between the performance of the defense and offensive success.  Turnover's, limiting opponents to 3 and out's, anything that improves field position would be a bonus to the offense.  

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

When measuring the productivity of an offense relative to the outcome of games I prefer to look at drives by an offense when trailing in a game. This cuts through a lot of the garbage statistics that are a product of a system. There are many ways to run an offense, but it all comes down to how an offense responds when it is placed in a trailing position.

In 2015 to date, there are only 3 offenses above a 50% scoring percentage when trailing in a game - Patriots at 59%, Cardinals at 57% and Panthers at 56%. On scoring drives when trailing, the Panthers average 5.6 points, the Patriots average 5.3 points, and the Cardinals average 4.7 points.

The Panthers are converting touchdowns to field goals on scoring drives while trailing at a 7:1 rate. Their average start position on these drives is at their own 21 yard line and they average 77 yards on 9 plays over 4 minutes per drive. That is insane when you consider most teams are at a 1:1 rate like the Cardinals and the Patriots are 3 deviations (elite) above the mean at a 3:1 touchdown rate.

[...]

In the 4th quarter and OT when trailing, the scoring percentages jump - Panthers at 83%, Patriots at 67%, and Cardinals at 57%. The Broncos jump the Cardinals and come in at 67%.

 

VERY VERY AWESOME stats.  Thanks so much!

[KB_fan]

I had a bit more time than expected this evening, so here is the overview of all our Red Zone drives for the 2nd quarter of this season (@Seattle, Philly, Indy, Green Bay)

The six straight Red Zone trips turned into Touchdowns in weeks 6 & 7 is pretty dang impressive.

It's also interesting how many more of the Red Zone touchdowns in this portion of the season are due to runs as opposed to passes. 7 runs / 4 passes, where as in the 1st 4 games before the bye it was 5 passes / 2 runs.

I'll have the summary of Red Zone stats for these 4 games posted below in a little while.

[KB_fan]

Here's the 2nd Qtr of the season (weeks 6 - 9) Red Zone stats summary. 

Note only two of our red zone drives (13%) in this portion of the season began following opponents' turnovers.  Our offense had to come up with some pretty long drives to get into scoring position!  Remember, in the first four games, 36% of our Red Zone drives began following turnovers by our opponents' in their own territory (most of these were in 1 game however - the game at Tampa).

So anyway, it's not JUST because of our awesome defense that we're in the Red Zone so much more this year.  Our offense is getting it done too in a big way when needed.

 

(When I finish weeks 10 - 13, I'll show the average for all 3 "quarters" of the season and all 12 games to permit comparison)

[Ivan The Awesome]

Jesus, so many numbers. 

[TheNewStandard]

9 hours ago, shaqattaq said:

Wow, you work hard on this stuff. I love it.

In the article, Cam insists that he hasn't changed, and I agree with that. I think that this success stems mainly from much better protection from the line (RIP Bell) and better play calling. Those Tolbert scrambles are wonderful, plus you get a "fat man dance" at the end. If you give a really good QB, like Cam, enough time, he will find the open man.

Thanks KB...you're a big part in why I visit this website. Kudos bro. 

Tolbert was injured much of last season but this is turning out to be his best season statistic-wise.

tugboat has really taken a lot of pressure off of Cam and our rushing game. 

Before this season started, I was considering him, Stewart and CJ being cap casualties or June 1st releases but now I'm thinking we should keep all of them if the Cap-room allows it.

Tolbert is an integral part of our team and I'd wager he's a favorite in the locker room. 

Tolbert is a huge part of our red-zone attack and crucial in blocking on passing downs and run blocking.

wouldnt be surprised if he represents the.NFC Fullbacks in the pro-bowl this year.

 

[KB_fan]

13 minutes ago, Ivan The Awesome said:

Jesus, so many numbers. 

Well.... there are some pretty colors too :)  Love all the Panther blue (touchdowns)!

[KB_fan]

2 minutes ago, TheNewStandard said:

Tolbert is a huge part of our red-zone attack and crucial in blocking on passing downs and run blocking.

wouldnt be surprised if he represents the.NFC Fullbacks in the pro-bowl this year.

 

I seem to remember some pretty eye-opening stats from last season about our W-L record with Tolbert playing vs. when he was injured and not playing.  It was a HUGE contrast.  I know people weren't quite sure how much he was a factor in the late-season resurgence.  There were a lot of other changes at that time too.  But I think now, looking back, you have to think his return from injury late last season was a big part of our turn around.

I'm pretty sure Tolbert is leading all fullbacks in the probowl voting.

He's made pro-bowl once before, hasn't he?

[TheNewStandard]

1 minute ago, KB_fan said:

Well.... there are some pretty colors too :)  Love all the Panther blue (touchdowns)!

Just thinking about getting KB back next year is going to be unreal. And I wouldn't be surprised if we don't end up as an elite of the elite offenses in the league. 

Thanks for the great work and breakdowns on the stats, KB...you the man!