2016 Roster Building - Here's a look at the Current Roster

[KB_fan]

So in going through those lists player by player, I found about 48 players I think have a pretty good shot at remaining on the team.   Here's what that list looks like first in alphabetical order, and then grouped by position, which allows us to highlight roster holes:

Here are the 15 active or IR players I identified as most-likely "on the bubble" / questionable to make the roster:

I'll post the grouping by position below.

 

 

[KB_fan]

DEFENSE - by position.

DLine:

DE is a REALLY BIG Need with 3-5 DEs questionable.  Assume Ealy starts.  We don't clearly have a starter on the other side.  We also wouldn't have much strength against the run.  That suggests we might keep CJ and/or Horton, but CJ's cap hit is monstrous and MUST come down, so he's still quite a question mark for me.   Another veteran strong pass rusher to start opposite Ealy is my #1 priority in the offseason. 

DT looks very solid.  Signing KK is a huge priority. If we can get it done this offseason, that would be huge.  Edwards seemed solid in spite of his age... but could lose out to a younger guy in training camp.

 

Cornerback

Starters would be Josh & Bene.  Unclear who would play Nickel, so we're still really looking very thin at CB, especially if we can not ink a long-term deal with Josh.

 

SAFETY:

Safety doesn't look too bad.  I assume Harper may retire, or at best stay on in a very limited support role.  Not all are convinced that Tre Boston is ready to start.  I assume Jones would continue to play mostly special teams.  Didn't pay enough attention to Marlowe to notice how good he was when he was playing.   Maybe the coaches see something they like in Ras-I Dowling.  In any case, this doesn't look like an urgent need, but it really depends on Harper's future and whether the coaches judge that Boston can start.

 

LINEBACKER:

Obviously we expect Gettleman to draft BPA.  Maybe that will include a linebacker.  But assuming we resign Jacobs, I see no roster hole here.  We're full up with elite starters and solid backup.

 

DEFENSE priorities:

2 - 3 DEs, 2 CBs, maybe a safety or DT.  No Linebackers.

 

Will post this same type of breakdown soon for the Offense.

[KB_fan]

(Hope I'm not boring everybody with all these spreadsheet permutations?!  I was just doing this stuff for myself to give me some better perspective on needs & priorities for free agency and the draft.  I figured I might as well post stuff here too in case others find it useful...)

So now, FINALLY, to a look at the Offense position by position just like I did for the defense above.

QB:  .. this is easy!

The only question at QB is whether we resign Joe Webb.  Given his incredible athleticism, dedication and versatility I am pretty certain we'll keep him. (His role as emergency QB, RB & WR helps roster management tremendously)

 

O Line:

Center:

I'm glad I took the time to look a little more closely at several of the futures contract players.  The Panthers website lists Dismukes & Larsen as guards, but looking around, it looks like they're known best as centers. 

With Ryan Kalil having only 1 more year left on his contract, finding his sucessor is obviously a BIG priority.   Given these futures signings, looks like Gettleman is already on it.  Depending on how he views Dismukes (I know one Auburn alum here on the Huddle has said good things!) and these others, maybe he's already on to a good prospect.  If not, maybe we try to find a potential future starting center in the draft.

I have been thinking it pretty likely we resign Velasco.  He played well as a backup this year.  However, if Gettleman really IS envisioning one of these other 3 guys to replace Kalil, perhaps they bump Velasco off the roster to ensure quality practice time with the other Oline starters.

GUARD:

We're in great shape as far as starting guards.  Backup / depth is perhaps a need.  Silatolu improved a lot in 2015, but is oft injured.  Is he reliable backup?  I assume we resign Scott.  I don't know much of anything about Tyronne Green.  But with age & injury, I would assume he's gone.

We may not need BOTH Scott & Silatolu.  Gettleman seems to like the flexibility of Swing Linemen as we did this year.  (We often only had Velasco, Scott & Daryl Williams as backup for the whole line.)  We possibly could consider Remmers as a backup in the guard position assuming Daryl Williams starts at RT.  Also, maybe Velasco or whoever is the backup center could be considered depth at guard since some of them seem to have both guard & center experience....  But if there's a hogmollie to be had for the Oline in the draft, i'd NEVER bet against Gettleman taking one - at least to ensure strong competition in training camp.

 

Offensive Tackle:

Surprisingly enough, for all the tragedy of the Super Bowl and our wailing about how Denver destroyed our OTs, we might not be in desperate need of a big splash re: OT.  That PRESUMES that Daryl Williams is on track to be a big upgrade at RT, freeing us to keep Remmers as a backup for multiple positions on the line.   If Williams is NOT at this point (and we didn't get a chance to see him get many reps) then another OT IS a big need.  Let's hope Gettleman assesses Williams correctly.  A LOT depends on that!!!

Oher should be ok to start again at LT.  He was very decent in pass protection. 

As for backup.  I'm sure everyone winces to see me suggesting we keep Chandler.  I'd say "at least for now" since his contract is not an issue.  Someone might well beat him in training camp... but for now, I'm not counting him off the roster.  Personally, I'm curious about Foucault.  The man is a giant at 6'8".  He's had 2 years of coaching.  I wonder if there's been progress.  Could he be ready for prime time (at least as a solid backup at OT)?  It would be fun if this "project" of Gettleman's succeeds!

The big need at tackle is MORE DEPTH, especially finding / grooming a future replacement for Oher at LT.   Also, competition for the current guys projected to be backups (Remmers, Chandler, maybe Foucault...).  If there are great OTs high in the draft we should go for them.  ALWAYS.

 

TIGHT END:

TE would seem to be a position where we're ok for now, but a number of us would LOVE to see us find a big great pass-catching TE to pair with Olsen and provide better backup should Greg, God forbid, ever go out with an injury for any length of time.  Certainly something to keep an eye out for.  It would be exciting to have TWO great TEs...

At least for me, Simonson kind of flew under the radar.  I was very surprised to discover he played in 9 games.  I've not reviewed the snap counts, but I assume most of that was on special teams.  Certainly it would seem our coaches see some potential in him for him given that he was active so much when other rookies (CAP, Wegher, Marlowe...) could barely get active.

Askew's status appears unclear.  He ended the season on the PS, but at least so far has not been offered a futures contract.

 

FB / RB:

With the exception of Tolbert, we don't necessarily HAVE to make any big decisions / changes at FB / RB, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't seek to upgrade.  Given our reliance on our rushing game, I don't feel fully comfortable with the roster as it now stands.  Stewart's late-season injuries worry me.  Although he seems to relish being the bell cow with 20 carry games, I'm not sure it's wise.  CAP showed promise, but also weaknesses.  Fozzy seemed less effective this season than last.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him gone.  Wegher just barely got activated for 1 game - getting just a few ST snaps, so it's very hard to know what our coaches are thinking about him.  We all saw the preseason flash... is he ready for real games?

Tolbert has been awesome and probably underrated.  He brings much more to our game than just his stats.  We play better when he's active.  But the combination of his age & cap hit might mean it's time to move on... If Lee Ward is still out there, we have a Fullback with an expiring contract...(smile).

Conclusion:  We may be able to get by with the same roster next year, but we should be on the lookout for a replacement for Stewart or at least a power back who can share his load.   New FB/RB talent may not be CRITICAL, but it could be HIGHLY STRATEGIC to look for competition & upgrades.  In the run game, it all depends on the right fit for our offense.  We need to grab the right guy when we find one in our price range / draft position.

 

Lastly.... the WIDE RECEIVERS:

Assuming KB is fully healthy and on form to take back his spot as #1 WR, we are looking pretty solid at WR.   Benjamin, Funchess, Ginn & Brown are likely the top 4, and we may be pretty solid in terms of depth as well.  I assume we resign Bersin & Hill for now, at least through training camp.  With news of Cotchery's contract being voided, I think that ups Bersin's value as a sure hands possession receiver and a guy who, while young, already has gained a reputation for being a very good mentor to younger guys, and for having mastered all the WR positions.   Norwood remains a mystery.  We'll have to see how he competes in training camp...  Also to watch for in training camp: does Byrd have toughness to go with his speed?

So: there's not a glaring need for more WR talent.  But obviously, if the right guy becomes available (a clone of Ginn's speed with Benji's toughness & Bersin's hands....!), it's hard to say no to more offensive weapons.  But it doesn't seem a high priority this offseason.

[hepcat]

Great writeup @KB_fan

You're right I think DE is the biggest need on the roster and I'm sure Gettleman knows it.  Lot of question marks there.  Ealy looks ready to start but after that, who knows if Charles Johnson comes back, and if Allen decides to play another year on a vet minimum contract.  Guys like Addison and Delaire are backup/rotational players.  Wouldn't be surprised to see this be a position where the Panthers spend some money in free agency and maybe even draft a pass rusher early.  

It'd be nice to get some corner/safety help with Tillman and Harper likely gone.  If Finnegan and/or McClain decide to come back it'd be good to have them battle some young guys for roster spots.  Norman is probably getting franchise tagged but like WR last year, you gotta be ready if your top guy goes down.  Wouldn't be surprised if we took a corner in the draft.

Offensive line is another quiet but bigger need than I think most think.  The interior is set but Kalil is getting up there.  I remember Remmers getting snaps at center in training gamp...but I doubt they consider him the long-term solution.  A LT to groom behind Oher is important and seems to be the most glaring need.  With Trai Turner and Norwell at guard, the Panthers are set, but like you said need depth.  This could be addressed in free agency with a prospect tackle taken in the draft.

We're in really good shape overall, Gettleman has done a fantastic job.  The 2016 team will look a lot like the 2015 team with some of the older players getting phased out, but if you look ahead to 2017, big changes are coming.  Lot of contracts up in 2017.  Gettleman will be ready, he's a baller.

[KB_fan]

15 minutes ago, hepcat said:

Great writeup @KB_fan

Thanks.  I enjoyed doing it. It's a first for me.  Having done such a detailed review will help me be able to follow offseason threads and news re: cuts, signings, and the draft so much more easily.  Usually my eyes glaze over reading all the competing threads about who we should sign, etc., because everyone has a good argument and I had never before made up my own mind about our priorities.  Now with a clear sense of where I see our biggest holes & needs, it gives me something of a "rooting interest" as we move into the offseason.

 

15 minutes ago, hepcat said:

It'd be nice to get some corner/safety help with Tillman and Harper likely gone. 

With the news that Harper's contract has been voided, I guess that bumps safety up the list of needs somewhat.  Obviously we assumed he'd likely be gone, but now it's confirmed.

 

15 minutes ago, hepcat said:

Offensive line is another quiet but bigger need than I think most think.  The interior is set but Kalil is getting up there.  I remember Remmers getting snaps at center in training gamp...but I doubt they consider him the long-term solution.  

Surprisingly enough, it looks like Gettles has already been at work behind the scenes on potential replacement for Kalil.  A couple of the players who are on our PS or signed to a futures contract are listed as guard on the Panthers website, but on other sites they're listed as centers.  So, it looks like Gettleman wants to evaluate these 3 potential guys:

• Masifilo, Matt C 26
• Dismukes, Reese C / G 23
• Larsen, Tyler C / G 24

Obviously it doesn't mean he won't ALSO be looking in Free Agency and the Draft, but I know at least one Huddler from Auburn has been quite excited about Dismukes.

 

15 minutes ago, hepcat said:

We're in really good shape overall, Gettleman has done a fantastic job.  The 2016 team will look a lot like the 2015 team with some of the older players getting phased out, but if you look ahead to 2017, big changes are coming.  Lot of contracts up in 2017.  Gettleman will be ready, he's a baller.

YUP!  I've got the popcorn ready.  Love to watch him at work and try to guess his thought process.  He always surprises us.  So much fun.

[KB_fan]

12 minutes ago, chris999 said:

Wow.. I honestly see us not resigning almost all of these guys.

Maybe 4 or 5 of them tops.

I like Remmers to back up Williams next year... but I am sure he will get signed elsewhere. He played well for most of the year. He will be an average RT somewhere next year.

Remmers is a RESTRICTED free agent.  I think that means we get "first right of refusal" to match any offer.  I think we'll keep him as solid depth.

 

My guess is that we keep up to 10 of these on the 90 man roster, but that maybe only 7 or 8 will make the 53:

Norman, Jansen, Remmers, Webb, Scott, Jacobs, Bersin / Hill.

Tolbert might make it, depending on what other options are out there at FB.

[TheSpecialJuan]

8 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Remmers is a RESTRICTED free agent.  I think that means we get "first right of refusal" to match any offer.  I think we'll keep him as solid depth.

Remmers is exclusive rights so he will definitely be re-signed. Stephen Hill, Benton Berlin and Ben Jacobs are RESTRICTED FA's.

 

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Bersin and Hill would be too pricey to tender deals so they will free agents next month. Jacobs will most likely be re-signed.

[d-dave]

What's funny, when you look at all of @KB_fan's wonderful spreadsheets, I kind of see something: NO Super glaring holes.  Instead, we have several small and medium sized holes.  Got to give Gettleman credit how he builds a roster.  He'll go through the FA list and pluck out a few guys who can come in and contribute.  The worst spot is DE, but even then we have some flexibility with Johnson.  I'm pretty sure Johnson will restructure/extend for a Super Bowl chance.  I think having a team that can beat anyone is going to be quite attractive for many FAs.

This will be an interesting off season and draft, for sure!

[KB_fan]

5 hours ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

Bersin and Hill would be too pricey to tender deals so they will free agents next month. Jacobs will most likely be re-signed.

Why is this?  Not doubting it's true, just wondering why either would be pricey given that they've barely played. 

I confess I'm totally a newbie when it comes to understanding NFL contract structure.  Is it that after a certain number of years the minimum contract level automatically bumps up?  That would make sense if it's the case.  I know there's a "vet minimum" but don't know who that applies to.

Can someone explain what's involved in tendering a deal to restricted free agents? 

If we don't tender them, and they become free agents, and no other team signs them quickly, can we then make an offer?

Thanks in advance.  Trying to learn more about the business side of the game this season...

[TheSpecialJuan]

I believe the tender for both would be slightly over 1 million and that would be too much for #5 WR's. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Btw, great job on this thread. I've printed this information to read later when I have some time.

[KB_fan]

24 minutes ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

I believe the tender for both would be slightly over 1 million and that would be too much for #5 WR's. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Btw, great job on this thread. I've printed this information to read later when I have some time.

Thanks.

I decided to see what I could find with Google re: the difference between UFAs and RFAs and the tender process.  This article from last year was helpful.  Looks like the minimum tender level last year was 1.5 million.

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2015/03/what_are_the_rules_for_2015_nfl_restricted_free_ag.html

(the dates and amounts are from the 2015 season)
 

Quote

 

Basically, any player with an expiring contract who has three accrued seasons, but less than four accrued seasons, is a restricted free agent. An accrued season is basically any year in which a player is on a team's 53-man roster for at least six games. Among the locals, Jets nose tackle Damon Harrison and safety Jaiquawn Jarrett, and Eagles running back Chris Polk and defensive end Cedric Thornton, are the only restricted free agents. (The Giants do not have any restricted free agents.)

Restricted free agents are free to sign with any other team, but there are exceptions: By Tuesday at 4 p.m., a restricted free agent's current team can tender a qualifying offer that would entitle that team to a right of first refusal on any offers made by another team, as well as compensation if the restricted free agent were to sign with that other team.

Each year, there are fewer and fewer restricted free agents because all drafted rookies must sign four-year contracts, which immediately makes them eligible for unrestricted free agency if they were to see that contract through. Restricted free agents are typically undrafted free agents or drafted players who had been cut at some point before playing out their rookie deals. (In a nutshell, young NFL players have few bargaining rights under the current collective bargaining agreement.)

There are four tiers for the qualifying offers that can be tendered this offseason, according to a person with knowledge of the figures the NFL has set for those offers. All are for one-year contracts, and all compensation noted below would be for this year's draft:

1. Right of first refusal only: A deal in the amount of $1.542 million, with no compensation if the current club opts not to match another team's offer. This is typically (though not always, as we'll see in a bit) extended to players who were undrafted free agents.

2. Right of first refusal plus compensation (lowest tier): A deal in the amount of $1.542 million, plus a draft pick equal to the player's original draft round in return if the current club opts not to match another team's offer.

3. Right of first refusal plus compensation (middle tier): A deal in the amount of $2.356 million, plus a second round draft pick in return if the current club opts not to match another team's offer.

4. Right of first refusal plus compensation (highest tier): A deal in the amount of $3.354 million, plus a first-round draft pick in return if the current club opts not to match another team's offer.

Any restricted free agent tendered an offer sheet has until April 24 to sign with any team, and that player's current team has until no later than April 29 to exercise its right of first refusal on any offer sheet the player may get from another team. There are some additional rules that mostly involve if a player won't sign his tender, but that's the gist of it.

 

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Right. So it would seem that we would not tender Hill or Bersin and instead just make them UFA. Maybe then, we could sign one or both to lesser 1 year deals. However, I don't think Gettleman is interested in doing that. Upgrades at the WR position should be coming this offseason.

[KB_fan]

17 minutes ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

Right. So it would seem that we would not tender Hill or Bersin and instead just make them UFA. Maybe then, we could sign one or both to lesser 1 year deals. However, I don't think Gettleman is interested in doing that. Upgrades at the WR position should be coming this offseason.

I would assume we will tender Remmers, however.   I think he's too valuable to us at the moment to risk letting go unless / until we are sure we have another starter at RT.