Fascinating data (at least to me) re: our offense vs. man coverage [and how much our defense played zone last year]

[KB_fan]

As will be obvious by all my threads & tweets, I've been killing time online today reading football stuff.   Too hot to go out and run errands.  Enjoying the A/C while I have it.  (In Africa where I work we only have fans, no A/C!)

Came across some fascinating data about how our offense played vs zone or man defense in 2015-2016.   Some of the Twitter commenters suggest that so many teams switch to man defense against us because our WRs can't get open against man.   See what you make of it.

Also there was data posted today about how much we played in zone defense last year.  EYE OPENING.

 

 On a bit of a side note, but related to the tweet just above, PFF also had a tweet today about how often we played zone defense - nearly 80% of the time!  Gotta think that will change now that our corners are no longer rookies and Wilks has promised to be more aggressive.

 

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

To summarize in case some of you can't see the embedded tweets:

1) On offense:  Carolina faced man coverage the 3rd most often of any team in the league at 48%.  Detroit & GB slightly higher at 51% and 50%.

2) Teams shifted their defense from zone to man against us 8% more often then expected.  Only GB had a higher shift from zone to man against their offense at 10%.

3) Cam had the highest differential of "expected points added" vs. ZONE coverage compared to his expected points added vs. MAN coverage. 

i.e. we played better against zone and teams adjusted against us accordingly.

 

On DEFENSE:  Carolina played in zone coverage nearly 80% of snaps!  Leading the league.  Steelers were 2nd with 75% of snaps in zone coverage.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

Not surprising. We don't have anyone that worries opposing DC's. I think this is also due to opposing defenses blue dog blitzing us. This is much easier to implement out of a man scheme. Man up on everyone and if your man doesn't run a route, get your ass after the QB.

[Bj-Monster23]

Teams knew what coverage we was in. We need to play more man to man next season. 

[LinvilleGorge]

Just because you're playing zone doesn't necessarily mean the offense knows what you're doing. There's all kinds of different zone looks.

[KB_fan]

Here's a tweet I forgot to post in the OP:

 

[tiger7_88]

33 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

3) Cam had the highest differential of "expected points added" vs. ZONE coverage compared to his expected points added vs. MAN coverage. 

So one way this can be looked at is that when other teams manned up against our crappy WRs, Cam wasn't as successful. (Which, as been pointed out by analysts, Carolina WR were the one of the worst at getting separation in the NFL.)

But when they zoned, Cam was able to find the hole in the zone with success?

[KB_fan]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Just because you're playing zone doesn't necessarily mean the offense knows what you're doing. There's all kinds of different zone looks.

True. 

The link in the PFF Tweet I posted in the OP is actually a GREAT read all about different styles of Zone defense.  I highly recommend it.

https://profootballfocus.com/news/pro-taking-a-closer-look-examining-the-nfls-coverage-scheme-tendencies/

[KB_fan]

2 minutes ago, tiger7_88 said:

So one way this can be looked at is that when other teams manned up against our crappy WRs, Cam wasn't as successful. (Which, as been pointed out by analysts, Carolina WR were the one of the worst at getting separation in the NFL.)

But when they zoned, Cam was able to find the hole in the zone with success?

That's my understanding,  Seems like Cam had the best success (best PFF grade) against zone of all QBs in 2016.

[Saca312]

11 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

That's my understanding,  Seems like Cam had the best success (best PFF grade) against zone of all QBs in 2016.

The stat showing Cam's grade against man speaks more to our WRs who can't separate than not.

[tiger7_88]

Just now, Saca312 said:

The stat showing Cam's grade against man speaks more to our WRs who can't separate than not.

Ahem... *cough* *cough*

;)

[LinvilleGorge]

7 minutes ago, bull123 said:

 

Maybe this year we can block those blitzes and give cam some time

That will get you out of a man defense in a hurry




Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

 

Hopefully. It maybe Shula can actually adapt to it. Nah, that's crazy. Better just hope we can block them.

[Bj-Monster23]

52 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Just because you're playing zone doesn't necessarily mean the offense knows what you're doing. There's all kinds of different zone looks.

This is true. Early on in the season when the pass rush wasn't present it also made it that much more difficult to play zone. This is the biggest reason why we had to bring more pressure to get sacks. You can't do that anymore you have to mix it up. Either we won't getting to the QB on most downs or QB's had a field day on our defense. If you're going to run a heavy zone scheme like that you have to have pass rushers who are disruptive every single down. What we still miss is that elite pass rusher on defense.

[Saca312]

44 minutes ago, bull123 said:

 

Maybe this year we can block those blitzes and give cam some time

That will get you out of a man defense in a hurry




Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

 

It's really more that we had a lack of a guy who can get quick separation going horizontal.

CMC and Samuel fix that. I'm actually thinking up of a write-up utilizing that idea.

Next year, defenses will pay big time if they try blitzing us this year.