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Could we have been truly OUT of ONLY 3 games last year?! [Also, what stats from 2016 would you like a closer look at?]

KB_fan

By KB_fan,
in Carolina Panthers

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KB_fan

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As most regulars around here know, after about week 3 last season, I got slammed with work and pretty much gave up all hope of keeping up with my usual Panthers stats data entry.  Having some time this weekend, I decided to go back and do at least some minimal data entry to give me a point of comparison for the upcoming season.

I did so with some fear & trepidation.  After all, it's a season we mostly want to forget.  6-10.  UGH.  Don't really want to relive it.  And we already mostly know WHY it happened, what the key weaknesses & problems were..., so it's not like we need stats to give us answers.

But honestly, I was just surprised by something.  I knew that we'd lost a bunch of close games, that you change the score on a few of those (Gano cough cough...) and our season could have looked really different.  But looking at the entire slate of games in aggregate, the W-L record and the point differences, and it really jumps off the page.  As BADLY as we played much of the season, we actually may have only been TRULY out of 3 games last season.  Both Atlanta games & Seattle.  We *COULD* have been 13-3 or 12-4 with just a few different plays.  It sure didn't feel like it.  But that's what the scores show.

Panthers_2016_scores.thumb.png.babe94877d012472ff6effc1334e66f3.png

Of our 10 losses, only 4 were by more than 3 points:  Minnesota, both Atlanta games & Seattle.

We were IN the Minnesota game, at least in the 1st half.  We had a chance to take a big lead.  That one was totally winnable.

Write off both Atlanta games.  Sigh...  We didn't have a chance in either, sadly.   And Seattle?  Our team wasn't even in the same time zone.  (Tiegate reveals that our guys (or at least Cam) didn't even really CARE about that game.  Their minds weren't on the field that day... they were already on the plane home from the start.)

But all those other games?  Denver, both Tampa games, 1st New Orleans game, Chiefs, Oakland..... we were in them.

I know this isn't news.  But it's STILL pretty eye-opening to see it so clearly in my spreadsheet.

SO... two questions for you Huddlers.

1)  What one or two things do you think we must change in 2017 to improve our chances in those close games?  (Sorry, you can't say "fire Ron" or "fire Shula".  I know those are obvious answers, but neither happened, and I don't *THINK* either will happen now - though DG's sudden firing shows NOTHING is impossible!)  Even WITH Ron & Shula, what do you think might make the difference?

A few ideas on my part:

- new kicker?

- more aggressive defense... a few more turnovers in our favor?

- better starting field position thanks to upgraded returners on Special Teams, thus increasing our % of drives with points scored.

I think all three of these things could happen this season, and I think all three could make a difference.

 

2) I doubt I'll be able to fully update my gamebook database for 2016 at this point.  BUT, if y'all have any specific requests for stats analysis related to the 2016 season (including comparisons between 2015 & 2016 in different stats), let me know, and I'll see what I can do.  No promises, but I'll be interested to see what folks are curious about, though I know most of us just want to focus on the upcoming season...

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Captain Morgan Grand Master

Captain Morgan

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we had most of the pieces we needed, but the secondary doomed us in a division with Brees and Julio, and injuries cemented it.

I'm pretty positive about the upcoming season, as long as we stay healthy.  Most fans will say that about their team, but our roster has the talent to win the Super Bowl....most teams can't say that.  

 

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KB_fan Proficient

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10 minutes ago, brandon_87 said:

You stated pretty much the obvious, but what I noticed, was when Ginn stopped fair catching everything and actually started returning punts, we seemed to play better, maybe the special teams spark is what the O needs

At one point I started to do some research on our average starting position and scoring %.  Obviously it's a no brainer if you start further down the field you're likely to score more.  DUH.  But it really was pretty noticeable for awhile with our offense.  I'll see if I can dig that analysis up and/or complete it. 

I think an extra 5-8 yards on returns for even 2 or 3 drives per game could be huge for our offense.

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KB_fan Proficient

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4 minutes ago, TPanther920 said:

Offensive line play  and injuries will dictate the 2017 season

True.  Both are huge factors.  But the point is, even with a disaster of an O-line and a ton of injuries last year, we were in 6 games that we *could* have won.  Losses by 3 points or less.  So... even O-line trouble & injuries might not have been the only story.  I think some of it was mental.  (All those stupid penalties, and "missed opportunities").  Guys were tired from the start of the season, and the Denver loss really hurt. 

A couple more turnovers (and a few less by our offense); a few more made field goals and our season may have looked VERY different even with all the injuries, etc.

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KB_fan

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7 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Good stuff. Also, about stats I'm curious about, do you have access to these stats from 2015?

Just to see how much it changed from zone to man.

Good question.  I was wondering the same thing.  Maybe I'll tweet the guy to ask...

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Captain Morgan Grand Master

Captain Morgan

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59 minutes ago, TPanther920 said:

Offensive line play  and injuries will dictate the 2017 season

 

that said, our interior 3 are excellent...the question marks are our tackles.  So to mitigate that, we drafted 2 guys that can make plays without Cam needing so much time in pocket.   That, I think, is very important, and kudos to Getty for finding a way to get around the difficulty finding good offensive tackles.

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Saca312 Experienced

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7 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Um... I think I posted those charts last night? (the tweeted versions of them, anyway).  See this thread:

Fascinating data (at least to me) re: our offense vs. man coverage [and how much our defense played zone last year]

 

Well whoops I didn't pay attention to those charts. Just saw 2015 & 2016 and thought they were different and didn't notice they were separated by zone and man. 

My bad!

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WOW!! Grand Master

WOW!!

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that said, our interior 3 are excellent...the question marks are our tackles.  So to mitigate that, we drafted 2 guys that can make plays without Cam needing so much time in pocket.   That, I think, is very important, and kudos to Getty for finding a way to get around the difficulty finding good offensive tackles.

I wish he would have saw that last offseason..

Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app

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Khyber53 Grand Master

Khyber53

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1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

- new kicker?

- more aggressive defense... a few more turnovers in our favor?

- better starting field position thanks to upgraded returners on Special Teams, thus increasing our % of drives with points scored.

I think all three of these things could happen this season, and I think all three could make a difference.

 

All three of those could make a big difference. You also have to figure in the injury factors from last year and weigh in that this year, those guys will be back and ready to go (except for Oher).

Shore up the three things you mentioned, plus everyone coming back healthy and fully recovered and we could be world beaters.

 

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