A Closer Look at Wk1 & Wk2 Drive Charts - clearly reveals Panthers Defensive DOMINANCE

[KB_fan]

I've been playing around this evening with a new way of charting / visualizing the drive charts in each week's game book.  

In the past I've only ever posted tables with text, but now I'm trying to create tables (charts) that more clearly show the length of each drive, starting & ending position, etc.

See what you think.  I'd find comments / constructive criticism helpful.

I'll share a few analytical thoughts about what the drive charts show a bit later in this thread.

[KB_fan]

Week 1 at 49ers.

First, here's the text based table:

 

Now here is that chart translated into what it looked like on field:

[KB_fan]

Here's week 2 vs. Bills:

 

[KB_fan]

I also found it helpful to look at Panthers drives for both weeks together, it gives a good overall view of what our Offense has looked like:

 

Basically Panthers have had 5 bad drives out of 21.  The two turnovers vs. San Francisco, and the 3 drives (6,7,8) in the 3rd Q vs. Bills when the Panthers kept going backwards...

Otherwise, the Panthers HAVE moved the ball fairly well:

Into Opponents' territory on 11 of 21 drives.  [6 of those were into the Red Zone.]

OBVIOUSLY we want more TDs.  But we ARE getting downfield and getting opportunities.... 

[KB_fan]

Now, by contrast look at our OPPONENTS' drives stacked above one another.   There's an AWFUL lot of white space in Panthers' territory!!! 

 

20 drives by our opponents.

8 drives into Panthers territory, but 4 of those drives BARELY are into Panthers territory, didn't get past the Panthers' 40.

Only 1 drive into the Red Zone - which STARTED in Panthers' territory following CMC's Week 1 fumble.

If this defense can continue.... WOW!!

 

[Hoenheim]

 Yea moving the ball well doesn't ammount to much usually if you cant score TDs. It might fly against lesser talented/young/inexperienced teams like 49ers and Bills but as the season goes on and we play teams that are capable of scoring alot of points on anyone (Patriots, Lions, in near future) just kicking field goals wont be enough to win. Defense isn't going to be perfect every game and Matt Ryan, Drew Brees has shredded them with regularity in the recent past. 

[VGcollector]

good analysis. looking at the games it felt like we moved the ball generally well to the opponents 30 yeard line but then  our drives sputtered. I will say this i understand our team favors being rush first but i hate how it looks like we struggle to get 1st down. Feels like getting a first down for us for majority of rons tenure here feels like it takes everything we have to get a 1st down. Except for 2011, 2013, and 2015. Just my opinion

[KB_fan]

1 minute ago, Hoenheim said:

 Yea moving the ball well doesn't ammount to much usually if you cant score TDs. It might fly against lesser talented/young/inexperienced teams like 49ers and Bills but as the season goes on and we play teams that are capable of scoring alot of points on anyone (Patriots, Lions, in near future) just kicking field goals wont be enough to win. Defense isn't going to be perfect every game and Matt Ryan, Drew Brees has shredded them with regularity in the recent past. 

Sure.  I totally agree.  But I don't think the offense is QUITE as woeful as some are making it out to be.

The main thing about moving the ball as we've done is time of possession...

The Panthers have had 9 or 10 drives of 3 minutes or longer.   6 of those drives are 5 minutes or longer if I remember correctly...  That limits our opponents and helps our defense.  So sometimes just keeping the chains moving CAN be helpful even if it doesn't result in a TD.

I'm hopeful though we'll start to see the TDs start multiplying.

[t96]

Didn't want to make a thread on this but it is pretty interesting... Here's the defense rankings so far this year, sorted by yards allowed/game:

 

1	Carolina	393	196.5	273	136.5	120	60.0	6	3.0
2	Buffalo	469	234.5	354	177.0	115	57.5	21	10.5
3	Pittsburgh	474	237.0	326	163.0	148	74.0	27	13.5
4	Denver	517	258.5	413	206.5	104	52.0	38	19.0
5	Cincinnati	534	267.0	209	104.5	325	162.5	33	16.5
6	Houston	575	287.5	338	169.0	237	118.5	38	19.0
7	Detroit	578	289.0	471	235.5	107	53.5	33	16.5
8	Green Bay	589	294.5	358	179.0	231	115.5	43	21.5
9	Jacksonville	593	296.5	321	160.5	272	136.0	44	22.0
10	San Francisco	599	299.5	352	176.0	247	123.5	35	17.5
11	Baltimore	607	303.5	437	218.5	170	85.0	10	5.0
12	Philadelphia	608	304.0	432	216.0	176	88.0	44	22.0
13	LA Rams	610	305.0	306	153.0	304	152.0	36	18.0
14	Dallas	613	306.5	400	200.0	213	106.5	45	22.5
15	Seattle	618	309.0	375	187.5	243	121.5	26	13.0
16	Tampa Bay	310	310.0	290	290.0	20	20.0	7	7.0
17	Oakland	621	310.5	400	200.0	221	110.5	36	18.0
18	Cleveland	627	313.5	456	228.0	171	85.5	45	22.5
19	Arizona	633	316.5	475	237.5	158	79.0	48	24.0
20	NY Giants	649	324.5	382	191.0	267	133.5	43	21.5
21	LA Chargers	657	328.5	406	203.0	251	125.5	43	21.5
22	Atlanta	668	334.0	484	242.0	184	92.0	40	20.0
23	Tennessee	669	334.5	461	230.5	208	104.0	42	21.0
24	Minnesota	679	339.5	517	258.5	162	81.0	45	22.5
25	Chicago	683	341.5	502	251.0	181	90.5	52	26.0
26	Washington	688	344.0	538	269.0	150	75.0	50	25.0
27	Miami	367	367.0	323	323.0	44	44.0	17	17.0
28	Indianapolis	762	381.0	616	308.0	146	73.0	62	31.0
29	Kansas City	777	388.5	546	273.0	231	115.5	47	23.5
30	NY Jets	818	409.0	448	224.0	370	185.0	66	33.0
31	New England	966	483.0	700	350.0	266	133.0	62	31.0
32	New Orleans	1025	512.5	777	388.5	248	124.0	65	32.5

 

Obviously a small sample size with only 2 weeks and other teams haven't played the Niners and Bills, but there are 3 outliers. One is us allowing under 200 yards per game. The other two? Our next two opponents, on the opposite end of the spectrum, both allowing around 500 yards per game, with the other closest team the Jets at closer to 400 yards per game...

 

Early to be looking at these and making much of them but it is pretty interesting. Figured I'd add it in here.

 

[rayzor]

whoa...good stuff!

going to take a little bit to digest, but i love what this defense is doing for sure.

i think the offense can get there. it's just a matter of getting the ball over that line instead of having to resort to FGs.

Looking at the schedule, we may have gotten through the hardest part of the schedule regarding defense. the lions might give us a hard time and still kind of early to know much about the bucs, but i think the offense should have an easier time putting points on the board.

plus, cam and the offense are at least a month behind every other team because of the lack of work he was able to get in with the receivers and the OL during training camp. we'll be hitting our stride soon i think.

[rayzor]

7 minutes ago, thomas96 said:

Didn't want to make a thread on this but it is pretty interesting... Here's the defense rankings so far this year, sorted by yards allowed/game:

 

1	Carolina	393	196.5	273	136.5	120	60.0	6	3.0
2	Buffalo	469	234.5	354	177.0	115	57.5	21	10.5
3	Pittsburgh	474	237.0	326	163.0	148	74.0	27	13.5
4	Denver	517	258.5	413	206.5	104	52.0	38	19.0
5	Cincinnati	534	267.0	209	104.5	325	162.5	33	16.5
6	Houston	575	287.5	338	169.0	237	118.5	38	19.0
7	Detroit	578	289.0	471	235.5	107	53.5	33	16.5
8	Green Bay	589	294.5	358	179.0	231	115.5	43	21.5
9	Jacksonville	593	296.5	321	160.5	272	136.0	44	22.0
10	San Francisco	599	299.5	352	176.0	247	123.5	35	17.5
11	Baltimore	607	303.5	437	218.5	170	85.0	10	5.0
12	Philadelphia	608	304.0	432	216.0	176	88.0	44	22.0
13	LA Rams	610	305.0	306	153.0	304	152.0	36	18.0
14	Dallas	613	306.5	400	200.0	213	106.5	45	22.5
15	Seattle	618	309.0	375	187.5	243	121.5	26	13.0
16	Tampa Bay	310	310.0	290	290.0	20	20.0	7	7.0
17	Oakland	621	310.5	400	200.0	221	110.5	36	18.0
18	Cleveland	627	313.5	456	228.0	171	85.5	45	22.5
19	Arizona	633	316.5	475	237.5	158	79.0	48	24.0
20	NY Giants	649	324.5	382	191.0	267	133.5	43	21.5
21	LA Chargers	657	328.5	406	203.0	251	125.5	43	21.5
22	Atlanta	668	334.0	484	242.0	184	92.0	40	20.0
23	Tennessee	669	334.5	461	230.5	208	104.0	42	21.0
24	Minnesota	679	339.5	517	258.5	162	81.0	45	22.5
25	Chicago	683	341.5	502	251.0	181	90.5	52	26.0
26	Washington	688	344.0	538	269.0	150	75.0	50	25.0
27	Miami	367	367.0	323	323.0	44	44.0	17	17.0
28	Indianapolis	762	381.0	616	308.0	146	73.0	62	31.0
29	Kansas City	777	388.5	546	273.0	231	115.5	47	23.5
30	NY Jets	818	409.0	448	224.0	370	185.0	66	33.0
31	New England	966	483.0	700	350.0	266	133.0	62	31.0
32	New Orleans	1025	512.5	777	388.5	248	124.0	65	32.5

 

Obviously a small sample size with only 2 weeks and other teams haven't played the Niners and Bills, but there are 3 outliers. One is us allowing under 200 yards per game. The other two? Our next two opponents, on the opposite end of the spectrum, both allowing around 500 yards per game, with the other closest team the Jets at closer to 400 yards per game...

 

Early to be looking at these and making much of them but it is pretty interesting. Figured I'd add it in here.

 

yeah, i was just looking at something similar to that...mainly points, but this schedule is looking pretty favorable for our offense. like you said, it's still really early, but i'm not hating that schedule. it will probably get easier and aside from maybe a couple hiccups it should be pretty good for us.

[Hoenheim]

We should have scored at least 2 TDs last game. The drop by Benjamin and Cam overthrowing CMC. Also I know we are a run first team but when its 1st down and we're inside the opponents 10 probably every team is daring us to run up the gut and Shula does it about 9 times out of 10 and do it again on 2nd down is kinda frustrating. I'd like to see them get a little more creative with the early down playcalling in the red zone. 

[Hoenheim]

1 minute ago, rayzor said:

yeah, i was just looking at something similar to that...mainly points, but this schedule is looking pretty favorable for our offense. like you said, it's still really early, but i'm not hating that schedule. it will probably get easier and aside from maybe a couple hiccups it should be pretty good for us.

What worries me is Denver is resurging. I don't have any more faith in our OTs then I did in the SB 50. You think this team could beat Denver? Albeit we may be looking alot different that late in the football season but our OTs are already having meltdowns early on. 

[Pejorative Miscreant]

18 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Sure.  I totally agree.  But I don't think the offense is QUITE as woeful as some are making it out to be.

The main thing about moving the ball as we've done is time of possession...

The Panthers have had 9 or 10 drives of 3 minutes or longer.   6 of those drives are 5 minutes or longer if I remember correctly...  That limits our opponents and helps our defense.  So sometimes just keeping the chains moving CAN be helpful even if it doesn't result in a TD.

I'm hopeful though we'll start to see the TDs start multiplying.

I agree with this.  Time of possession keeps the Brees's and Brady's off the field.  I think Cam knocking off the rust will improve the scoring some.  Couple that with the D and we might have something.