A Preliminary Look at Panthers 2018 "Strength of Schedule"

[KB_fan]

I had a chance to set up my 2018 Panthers stats database the past few days, including my annual look at the Panthers' historical record versus the teams we'll be facing this year.

First, here's a look at the Panthers schedule week by week, along with their opponent's 2017 record, and the Panthers' record versus those teams historically. (also since 2011, and since 2013 just for more recent context).

Panthers face 10 games against teams that had a winning record in 2017, including 6 games against playoff teams (that includes the 2 games each against Atlanta & New Orleans).

We face 3 teams that Cam has never beaten (CIN, BAL, PIT, although we've only played each of those teams once since Cam arrived).  Philly & Seattle have also been tough opponents for us in recent years.

The overall combined 2017 regular season record of all of the Panthers' 2018 opponents is 131-125 (.512).  But that doesn't necessarily mean very much since teams change so much year to year.

Below is a closer look at how "ACTUAL" strength of schedule (end of season records) compared with PRESEASON strength of schedule for 2011-2017.  Also, I've included data on our opponents records when the Panthers played them.  In some cases we played opponents when they were struggling (2015), while in other years, we played opponents when they were at their toughest (2016 and 2017).

It's encouraging to me to note that 2017 actually ended up being the toughest strength of schedule faced by the Panthers in many years, and yet a beat up Panthers team went 11-5.

One other thing that strikes me from this data:

For the Panthers, perhaps one indicator of their season success is how well they play against the toughest teams on their schedule..  Look at the Panthers' records against playoff teams in 2013, 2015, 2017.  Look too at the Panthers record versus teams that had a winning record when we played them in those 3 years.  When the Panthers can win the big games, they're likely to have an excellent season,

[KB_fan]

The most in depth strength of schedule analysis is done by Warren Sharp of Sharp football...  for anyone who really wants to dig into SoS data, that's the place to go:

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/home.html

There are all sorts of pages with SoS analysis.

Here's the link... look under offense and defense tabs for detailed team by team info.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/2018-strength-of-schedule.html

 

[LinvilleGorge]

I appreciate the effort, but I honestly pay zero attention to preseason strength of schedule. In a league where there is on average of 50% turned over in playoff teams it just seems like an effort of futility IMO. There are always surprisingly good and surprisingly bad teams and that's one of the huge factors in keeping the NFL interesting. No matter how bad a team is predicted to be, there's always a chance they'll actually end up being decent.

[Mr. Scot]

My sense is that the Panthers have had a difficult history against the AFC North (outside of the Browns). I haven't looked it up though so that's just a hunch.

I do remember the last time we faced the Bengals, we had Vontaze Burfict pulling his dirty ass crap.

[*FreeFua*]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

My sense is that the Panthers have had a difficult history against the AFC North (outside of the Browns). I haven't looked it up though so that's just a hunch.

I do remember the last time we faced the Bengals, we had Vontaze Burfict pulling his dirty ass crap.

3-2 against Baltimore

2-2-1 against Cincy

4-1 against Cleveland

1-5 against Pittsburgh 

[KB_fan]

Oh I totally agree.  Preseason SoS means very very little.  Teams change and matchups matter a lot too.

It's just to give a gauge.  On paper this schedule looks a bit tougher than average for the Panthers.  Facing 10 games against teams with a winning record in 2017 could make for a challenging season.  But obviously a huge part of that is the fact that we play 4 games against Atlanta & New Orleans, so this isn't news!

[KB_fan]

Here's our historical record versus all teams from worst to best.  Opponents for 2018 are highlighted:

 

Data is from this site:

https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/carolina-panthers/opponents

[Mr. Scot]

18 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

3-2 against Baltimore

2-2-1 against Cincy

4-1 against Cleveland

1-5 against Pittsburgh 

So mostly even with Cinci and Baltimore, epically bad against Pittsburgh.

I do remember the one time we beat them. Pretty sure that was back in 96.

[t96]

26 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

3-2 against Baltimore

2-2-1 against Cincy

4-1 against Cleveland

1-5 against Pittsburgh 

Tepper will never lose to Pittsburgh 

[Ace_Aladdin]

2 hours ago, KB_fan said:

One other thing that strikes me from this data:

For the Panthers, perhaps one indicator of their season success is how well they play against the toughest teams on their schedule..  Look at the Panthers' records against playoff teams in 2013, 2015, 2017.  Look too at the Panthers record versus teams that had a winning record when we played them in those 3 years.  When the Panthers can win the big games, they're likely to have an excellent season,

Thanks to RiverboatRon , huddlers need to stop hating and trust the process. 

[cptx]

4 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Pretty sure that was back in 96.

Yeap it was.