Analysis - Panthers record when leading since 2015 [Update: Also added data re: record when trailing at halftime]

[KB_fan]

Since I have the data, and it's no fun if you have the data and DON'T play with it, and don't show it off (smile!)....

A bit more about the largest lead per game and the degree to which Panthers held on to the lead or squandered it.  Here is a look at ALL the games (including post-season) since 2015, game by game:

 

Now, let's look at that same data grouped by varying amount of largest lead: [Note: for this data below, I reset % of largest lead maintained for LOSSES to 0% so I could better calculate % of lead maintained without numbers like the -700% in week 3 of 2017 (led by 3, lost by 21) skewing the data.]

(Oops: I just realized that last "largest lead" category should be 28+ since it includes the 38 point lead vs. Atlanta when we blew them out 38 to 0! Amazing!!)

So, INCLUDING POST SEASON, Panthers have had a lead in 46 of 55 games (84%) played since the beginning of 2015.  They won in 36 of those games (78%)

Games where their largest lead was <7 points, they won 3 of 5 (60%)

Games where they led at some point by 7-13 points they won 7 of 14 (50%). [2016 was BRUTAL for these games: Panthers lost 4 of 5].

But look now at games where they led by at least 14 points since 2015:  Of 27 such games, Panthers won 26!  They never lost a game where they led by more than 17 points.

However, 6 of those 26 games (23%) turned into nail-biters, with Panthers giving up over 75% of their lead.  I'm sure we all remember them pretty well!!

2015: 

Indianapolis [led by 17, won by 3 in overtime],

at Giants [led by 28, won by 3 on last minute FG],

Seattle in the playoffs [led by 31, won by 7].

2016:

vs. New Orleans [led by 20, won by 3]

2017: 

at New England [led by 14, won by 3 on last second FG];

at Detroit [led by 17, won by 3], 

 

I'd guess this is average to above average for the league.... I'll see what kind of comparative data I can find.  I'll take 26 wins out of 27 games where we lead by 2 or more TDs, even if 6 of them turn into Cardiac Cats games.

 

[Khyber53]

Tepper needs to hire @KB_fan.

 

[KB_fan]

29 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

I'll see what kind of comparative data I can find.  I'll take 26 wins out of 27 games where we lead by 2 or more TDs, even if 6 of them turn into Cardiac Cats games.

I don't see any easy way in PFR to sort by largest lead at any point in a game... 

So I looked at games since 2015 where a team led by 14+ at halftime.  

Of 198 such games (incl post-season):  teams won 184 (92.9%)

Panthers were pretty close to the average, winning 11 of 12 (91.6%) [The 1 loss being to Kansas City in 2016]

 

There were 24 of 198 (12%)  games where a team was leading by 14+ at halftime but the final score differential was <=3 (14 losses, 10 wins by 3 or fewer points).

Panthers DID have a higher % of such games: 3 of 12 (25%) [2015 Giants game; 2016 vs. NO; 2016 loss to KC]

 

[Davidson Deac II]

16 hours ago, RelaxImaPro said:

Meh, thinking about 2012 still pisses me off.  All those close games we blew literally in the last minute.  If not for that then we were easily a playoff team.  Lol such a wasted season.  Going back looking at it we could've been like 13-3 that season lmao.  Would've been rolling into the playoffs red hot too playing some of the best football of any team in the NFL at that time.

It was a frustrating season.  But I do think that people mis remember a few things. Our defense was bad. And our offense tended to collapse in the 4th qtr, throwing bad passes, fumbles, interceptions, no blocking. Chuds offenses were bad in the 4th whether we were tied or up by 10.  We didn't take the foot off the gas, but the engine just sputtered.

 

  And we had Olindo Mare as our kicker.  Or was it Medlock?  I can't remember.

[XOBlackxJokerOX]

My main gripe is why this team never goes for the jugular. Why do we always kneel or run plays just to take time off the clock if we get the ball with under two minutes before the half (like the Atlanta game)? Why not go for points? Most of the better teams do. We know Cam can run a no huddle offense superbly so why not take the shot? 

[Thanatos]

23 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Appreciate the thanks.  But there IS a kicker here. 

This wasn't something that was NEVER TRUE.

Like the tired "We always do badly after a bye" [which hasn't been true in the regular season since 2014, after having been true in SPADES from 2011-2014...]  the Panthers and Ron were not always good at winning when we had a lead.  In fact we were below the league average in each of 2011, 2012, 2014 and also for the 4 year period 2011-2014, in spite of a strong 2013.

I don't have the data as to whether or not Panthers led at halftime for the 2011 - 2014 games, but thanks to PFR, it was easy to compile the data for games Panthers EVER led during those years:

It's so interesting to me that the % of games in which Panthers ever led from 2011 - 2014 is 86% (55/64); identical to the Panthers % from 2015 - 2018 week 3 (44/51 games).

But look at the huge difference in % of games won when the Panthers had the lead at some point: Only 58% in 2011-2014 compared to 77% since 2015.  [The league average for wins when a team had a lead in 2011-2014 is 63%]

So, the evidence is pretty solid that Ron and the Panthers have IMPROVED over time.  Here's hoping we can stay near the top of the league in terms of winning when we have a lead in 2018 because our track record of GETTING a lead in games is VERY solid - even in the early years of Ron & Cam.

This is what happened. Ron did this his first several years and that stuck in the minds of the fans. So even now where that does not happen, it still gives us flashbacks to those years when it did.