Changing the Narrative, Vol. 1: #9 vs. #16

[Icege]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

I appreciate the write up and analysis.  I would also argue that a stud pass rusher could do wonders for this team overnight.  You just can’t underestimate the power of pass rush, it makes the existing secondary worlds better immediately.   If a stud DE/DT is there at 16 I’m good with it all of it.

tb100, looking at the current prospect rankings and how loaded DL is was what had me look back on the history of the picks to see if there was as big of a drop off as folks were screaming it was.

I feel fairly confident that we can still land ourselves a premium defensive linemen that can help improve the pass rush at #16 that can compare to #9. DL in the 1st, and either interior OL or safety help in the 2nd is what I would like to see (should the players we want be there, ofc).
 

[Icege]

58 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Lol. Not every selection is rolling the dice. It’s like trying to win the NBA lottery. You aren’t guaranteed the top spot, but I’d rather have a 25% chance to hit than a 1%. If every selection was rolling the dice then there’d be way more Tom Brady’s instead of just 1. Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Cam Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Aaron Rodgers, etc. were all available at 16, but they were all also still first rounders. It’s not a crap shoot. It’s a chance with worse odds every pick you go down. 

This I agree with 100%, the odds definitely decrease the further down you go, but there are other probabilities to look at as well. From a 2015 article...

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Most of us can agree that the pass rush needs new life I would assume. With that in mind:
 

Quote

• Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.
• Of 442 players selected, only 114 have become starters for at least half their careers.
• Drafting a defensive lineman in the 4th round has the highest success rate of all positions at 37%.
• If you were ranking rounds by number drafted it would be 7th, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 2nd and 5th.
• The success rates are as follows: 1st - 58%, 2nd - 26%, 3rd - 27%, 4th - 37%, 5th - 13%, 6th - 13%, 7th - 3%
• On average, 8 linemen are taken in the 1st, 5 in the 2nd, 6 in the 3rd and 4th, 5 in the fifth and sixth and 9 in the 7th.

Those stats, to me, take a giant poo on the toxic Huddlers that are somehow walking away from this thinking that "#16 is better than #9" when it's been stated repeatedly that the purpose of the thread is to illustrate that the difference between the two spots is negligible and not deserving of the angst that we're seeing from some of the more polarized posters (not you ofc, you're clearly interested in a civil discussion). They're about as useful as my co-worker that I'm waiting on to get out of the bathroom so that we can go tf home -_-

[Icege]

Another interesting article, this one with LOTS of tables including Pro Bowl/Bust rates for 1st round and top-10 selections via position groups using 10yr & 20yr samples:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

[JawnyBlaze]

What about picks 10-15?

[JawnyBlaze]

Not that I was one of the ones pissed about dropping draft spots. I was just pissed about giving Rivera more pink-slip repellant. 

[Gucceland]

All boils down to who is evaluating and making the pick...end of story.

Now can someone explain to me why the Falcunts and Deadskins are picking ahead of us, when we have the same record and lost to the Falcunts head to head twice and the Deadskins once?  Conference schedule for the Falcunts and Panthers were basically the same.  I may be dumb here, but this makes no sense.  How do we end up better than 2 teams that beat us with the same records?

[Toomers]

1 hour ago, Smithers said:

And that right there is why this team is struggling.  You can’t go 3 years without drafting a few major impact players and hope for sustained success.  The good news is the last two drafts have been very good.  But thanks to the three years prior, it might take us another couple years of good drafts before we are where us fans would like us to be.  

 3 All-Pro OL sure doesn’t have an impact? 

[Gucceland]

One more thing....every draft is different.  We are honestly in worst shape this year, because there will not a bunch of 1st round QBs picked, due to the lack of talent....basically 2 or 3 teams ahead of us will pass on QBs this year, meaning 2 or 3 of the best players at their position, will actually be picked where they should be, rather than slide down the draft to us.  This sucks.

[Gucceland]

Just now, bull123 said:

A lot of merit in your question 

league set it up this way

It's obviously not arbitrary....what was the criteria for ranking the Deadskins and Falcunts behind us?  There has to be some sort of explanation...anyone on here know?

[Toomers]

1 minute ago, Gucceland said:

It's obviously not arbitrary....what was the criteria for ranking the Deadskins and Falcunts behind us?  There has to be some sort of explanation...anyone on here know?

SOS

[Gucceland]

3 minutes ago, bull123 said:

Strength of schedule 

Packers and Cardinals are not better than Seahawks and Lions.  The Falcunts won head to head twice and played two layup games against a weak Packers team and the worst team in the league Cardinals.  The Seahawks are in the playoffs and the Lions had some great wins this year.  Otherwise, the Falcunts and Panthers played the same teams...Now I'm more confused.  Crap!

[Cdw]

There really shouldnt be this much angst over beating the mf Saints and dropping a few draft spots.  There will be an impact player available at 16, and as much as I dislike Hurney, his history does suggest he will pick one.

[grimesgoat]

Picking at 16 only hurts if the guy you really want and need will not be there at 16, such as a QB.  However it's very possible that our target is DE/DT and a guy we believe is just as good as the guy that goes at 9 will be available at 16.  This allows us to save 6-7m in salary over 4 years.  

[Gucceland]

16 minutes ago, bull123 said:

Strength of schedule 

If the Deadskins, Falcunts and Panthers were all tied for the last playoff spot with the same record....who gets the wildcard spot?  I honestly don't know the answer...would it be head to head or SOS?